Apr 09 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly in red territory with pan-European indices around worst levels. Germany (1.3%), Denmark (1.2%), Italy (1.1%) led the underperformers. Greece +1.2% bucked the trend followed by Finland little change.
In geopolitical developments, EU diplomat Borrell said war certainly looming around us and Europe must prepare full-scale conflict on the continent beyond Ukraine (FT). This may be the first time Borrell has laid out the Russian threat explicitly. Elsewhere, EU Commission launched probe into China wind turbines.
From a macro perspective, Wednesday's US CPI data in focus ahead of Thursday's ECB policy decision. Data to test disinflation narrative. ECB to lay the groundwork for June cut with Eurozone activity still relatively weak and inflation easing.
Meanwhile, ECB April 2024 bank lending survey showed small net tightening in credit standards and substantial decline in loan demand. Corporate credit standards tightened overall but eased for household mortgages. First time since Q4 2021 credit standards eased for house purchases. BRC retail numbers point to signs of recovery in UK retail sector with early Easter. Also some attention on IMF warning against central banks leaving policy on hold for too long. Said different economies have experienced different effects from higher rates.
In corporate news, OMV (OMV.AV) released preliminary Q1 production numbers. In France, bioMérieux (BIM.FP) forecasts organic revenue growth of +7% CAGR 2024 - 2028. In the UK, BP (BP.LN) issued Q1 trading statement ahead of results due 7-May. UNITE Group (UTG.LN) said that it now expects rental growth of at least 6% and full occupancy for the 2024/25 academic year. Imperial Brands (IMB.LN) on track to meet its half-year and full-year guidance.
On M&A front, HSBC (HSBA.LN) to sell HSBC Argentina to Grupo Financiero Galicia for $550M whilst M&C Saatchi (SAA.LN) announced divestment of M&C Saatchi South Africa Group subsidiaries.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Basic Resources +1.34%, Telecom +0.48%, Media +0.20%, Food & Beverage +0.19%, Oil & Gas +0.08%, Utilities +0.07%, Health Care (0.24%), Autos & Parts (0.29%), Chemicals (0.41%), Travel & Leisure (0.51%),
Underperformers
Insurance (1.36%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.32%), Construct & Mtls (1.15%), Banks (1.02%), Retail (1.01%), Technology (1.00%), Financial Svcs (0.76%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.73%), Real Estate(0.67%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
EU launches probe into Chinese wind turbine companies - FT
UK
BoE considering launching digital pound to compete with private digital currencies and maintain control over the money supply - Bloomberg
Early Easter boosted British food sales and retail sales in March, but weather dampened sales of other goods -Reuters
Chancellor Scholz optimistic as German economy shows signs of recovery - Bloomberg
Spain
Spain to end 'golden visas' for expats - The Times
Italy
Govt approves DEF, blames Superbonus for debt rise - Ansa
Greece
Divestment from banks earns Greece €3.5B - ekathimerini
Geopolitics
French President Macron along with Egypt and Jordan calls for permanent and unconditional cease-fire in Gaza - LeMonde
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+73.6% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK2.54, +1.08) -- develops assay to measure targeted proteins for its next-generation test
+24.4% GHT.LN (Gresham Technologies £1.61, +0.32) -- reaches agreement with Alliance Bidco for 163p per share cash acquisition offer
+19.0% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.41, +0.06) -- Kodiak field resource upgraded 25% to 1.2B barrels of recoverable liquids by NSAI
+14.0% W7L.LN (Warpaint London £4.28, +0.53) -- Q1 trading update
+10.5% PGS.NO (PGS ASA NOK8.68, +0.82) -- prelim Q1 revenue
+9.2% BIM.FP (bioMerieux €106.80, +9.00) -- Q1 revenue; CMD
+9.0% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK130.00, +10.70) -- prelim Q1 revenue
+8.3% MIPS.SS (MIPS SEK365.80, +28.00) -- initiated buy at SEB
+6.7% KID.NO (Kid ASA NOK146.40, +9.20) -- prelim Q1 revenue
+6.5% ALGBE.FP (Global Bioenergies €2.00, +0.12) -- receives letters of intent for its plant project corresponding to forecasted annual sales of over €70M (
+5.1% ZIL2.GR (Elringklinger €7.25, +0.35) -- Hauck & Aufhäuser
+4.4% DFCH.LN (Distribution Finance Capital Holdings £0.24, +0.01) -- FY earnings
+4.2% FRES.LN (Fresnillo £5.80, +0.24) -- BofA upgrade
+4.0% BOKU.LN (BOKU £1.83, +0.07) -- Indian entity, Boku Network Services IN Pvt. Ltd., has received full authorisation from the Reserve Bank of India to operate as a Payment Aggregator
+3.9% FCT.IM (Fincantieri €0.78, +0.03) -- orders
+3.6% BORR.NO (Borr Drilling NOK64.60, +2.25) -- issues contracting update
+3.4% BOL.SS (Boliden SEK342.90, +11.20) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade
+3.3% IF.IM (Banca Ifis €19.06, +0.61) -- Equita upgrade
+2.8% JTC.LN (JTC £8.47, +0.23) -- FY earnings
+1.9% DFDS.DC (DFDS DKK207.60, +3.80) -- acquisition; raises FY revenue guidance
+1.7% NDX1.GR (Nordex €12.56, +0.21) -- orders
+1.6% HLMA.LN (Halma £22.86, +0.37) -- Barclays upgrade
+1.2% BP.LN (BP £5.16, +0.06) -- Q1 trading statement
+1.0% CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals £2.05, +0.02) -- Q1 operations update
Notable Decliners
-7.6% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.02, -0.00) -- defers interest payment on perpetual capital securities as part of the ongoing Chapter 11 process
-4.4% YAR.NO (Yara International NOK334.40, -15.40) -- Sparebank 1 Markets downgrade
-4.3% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €40.06, -1.82) -- Degroof downgrade
-4.1% FABG.SS (Fabege SEK90.80, -3.85) -- Handelsbanken short-term recommendation downgrade; Nordea downgrade
-3.7% BALD.B.SS (Fastighets Balder SEK72.62, -2.80) -- Nordea downgrade
-3.6% WALL.B.SS (Wallenstam SEK48.18, -1.82) -- Nordea downgrade
-3.1% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.29, -0.01) -- FY earnings
-2.7% NK.FP (Imerys €30.12, -0.82) -- BofA downgrade
-2.5% G24.GR (Scout24 €69.10, -1.80) -- HSBC downgrade
-2.3% CAST.SS (Castellum AB SEK133.60, -3.20) -- Nordea downgrade
-2.0% WIHL.SS (Wihlborgs Fastigheter SEK93.95, -1.95) -- Handelsbanken short-term recommendation downgrade
-1.1% PNDX.B.SS (Pandox SEK174.20, -2.00) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-1.1% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK9,372.00, -108.00) -- resumed underperform at Bernstein
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW)
Nordics: Dustin (DUST.SS), Bang & Olufsen (BO.DC)
UK: Tesco (TSCO.LN), M&C Saatchi (SAA.LN), IQE (IQE.LN), Futura Medical (FUM.LN), Churchill China (CHH.LN), Epwin Group (EPWN.LN):
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Feb Trade Balance DKK 26.3B vs consensus DKK24.5B and prior revised DKK21.6B from DKK22.9B
France Feb Trade Balance (€5.2B) vs consensus (€7.0B) and prior revised (€7.2B) from (€7.4B)
Netherlands Mar CPI +3.1% y/y vs preliminary +3.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 24): ($0.70) or (0.81%) to $85.73
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.0858
£-$ +0.0016 or +0.13% to 1.2672
€-£ (0.0013) to 0.8568
S&P 500 (0.47%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.61%
DAX: +7.91%
CAC: +6.71%
MIB: +11.85%
Stoxx 600: +5.60%
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