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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.48%), Hang Seng +1.85%, Shanghai Composite (0.70%) as of 04:10 ET

Apr 10 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities mixed Wednesday. Hang Seng outperformed with sharp gains in auto and tech. Shenzhen led mainland China indexes lower. Nikkei also closed lower while ASX logged mild gains. Taiex slightly lower. Several markets closed for holidays including South Korea and Singapore. India trading at record highs. S&P 500 futures and Treasuries steady ahead of US CPI. Aussie and NZ curves bull flattening. Dollar flat against majors, kiwis stronger following RBNZ decision. Gold near record high. Crude flat following earlier pull back. Bitcoin lower following overnight sell-off.

    • US CPI data will be closely watched by markets to gauge next move in interest rates and forecast to show y/y moderation in core inflation to lowest since Apr-2021. Data takes on added importance in light of recent concerns about dampened disinflation momentum, hawkish rate repricing and Fed officials voicing caution on rate cut timing. In APAC, RBNZ left OCR unchanged as expected. Central bank also left unchanged comment that rates need to remain restrictive for a sustained period to ensure inflation returns to 1-3% target. Bloomberg sources noted BOJ will likely consider upgrading FY25 core inflation forecast, currently at 2.4%, at April's meeting. Governor Ueda remarked again today, ruling out direct policy response to yen. Bank of Thailand also kept benchmark rate unchanged at 2.5%, defying PM Srettha's calls for monetary easing.

    • Fitch Ratings downgrades China outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable' while affirming 'A+' rating. Said revision reflects increasing risks to country's public finance outlook as Beijing contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth. China's ministry of finance said downgrade is "regrettable", saying Fitch failed to reflect role of fiscal policy in shoring up growth. Fitch's action followed a similar move last December by Moody's.

    • Seven & I (3382.JP) was considering a listing of its superstore business as part of plan to maximize corporate value. NetEase (9999.HK) and Microsoft (MSFT) enter broader collaboration with Blizzard titles back in China this summer. JD.com (9618.HK) confirmed it will invest CNY1B in cash to attract more video content creators. Esprit (330.HK) in talks with an international PE firm regarding prospective investments, which the potential investor intends to assist in restructuring the fashion retailer's European business. Alibaba's (9988.HK) founder Jack Ma, in a rare move, expressed appreciation for overhaul led by company's new management and said the company has returned to path of healthy growth. ByteDance profit jumped roughly 60% in 2023 to $40B.

  • Digest:

    • Fitch downgrades China outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable,' affirms 'A+' rating:

      • Fitch said the revision reflects increasing risks to China's public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model. Also noted wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt have eroded fiscal buffers. Projects fiscal policy increasingly likely to support growth which points to a steady uptrend. Lower nominal growth exacerbates challenges in managing leverage. Still, the 'A+' credit rating supported by its large and diversified economy, still solid GDP growth prospects relative to peers, integral role in global goods trade, robust external finances, and reserve currency status of the yuan. Going forward, noted an uncertain path to consolidation as deficit reduction expected to be gradual given balance against economic growth objectives. Also cited little clarity on reform measures, eroded revenue base and weaker outlook for property-related revenue. Fitch forecasts general government debt to rise to 61.3% of GDP in 2024 from 56.1% in 2023, noting the median for 'A' rated peers at 54.0%, and stressed this shows clear deterioration from 38.5% in 2019.

    • BOJ said to be mulling FY26 inflation forecast at around 2%, upward revision to FY25:

      • Bloomberg sources said BOJ will likely consider upward revision to its FY25 core inflation forecast, currently 2.4%, at this month's MPM following surprising strength in this year's shunto wage hikes. While a new figure for FY25 was not mentioned, ex-fresh food & energy inflation may be lifted to 2% or higher (from current 1.9%) and first projections for FY26 likely to be set around 2%. With attention on the next rate hike, article noted the Apr 25-26 meeting widely expected to conclude with no policy changes. Some 62% expect a follow-up hike by October with just under a quarter picking July. Balance of risks to the inflation outlook shifted higher after the government announced the termination of energy subsidies at the end of May. Still, officials remain wary of potential downside risks to the FY26 outlook. Story described current backdrop of yen weakness and market attention on the threat of FX intervention. Noted that any hints of a faster BOJ rate hike trajectory could support yen, though shift in Fed rate cut expectations pose a bigger factor, turning the spotlight to the upcoming US CPI report.

    • RBNZ leaves OCR unchanged, says policy needs to remain restrictive:

      • RBNZ left OCR unchanged at 5.50%, as expected. Central bank also left unchanged comment that rates need to remain restrictive for a sustained period to ensure inflation returns to 1-3% target. While this was expected, RBNZ balanced that by expressing more confidence around inflation returning to target this year. Statement noted economy evolving in-line with RBNZ's expectation and that MPC members remain confident policy is restricting demand. Balance of risks around inflation since February meeting were little changed with upside drivers coming from sticky services inflation while downside drivers attributed to weaker global growth. Noted restrictive policy settings necessary to reduce inflation and expressed limited tolerance for further delay in achieving inflation target. Early takeaways mixed with some attention to RBNZ's confidence current policy stance will return inflation to target in 2024. Economists continue to anticipate easing cycle beginning later in 2024 with multiple eyeing rate cut around August that lines up with inflation's expected return to target.

    • Seven & i confirms discussions of listing superstore division:

      • Seven & i (3382.JP) confirmed media reports indicating board members are considering an IPO for its superstore business. Company aims to list "as soon as reasonably practicable" provided capital alliances and shareholdings continue to allow collaboration in food segment between convenience stores and superstores. Kyodo sources said the process would take several years with Seven & i retaining a stake. Nikkei reported management considering a partial sale as early as 2026. Suggested one likely scenario to establish an intermediate holding company for its general merchandising chains including Ito Yokado and York-Benimaru. Seven & i would court investment in the new entity from other companies and funds, while noting a listing as a possibility. Seven & i plans to keep this holding company as part of its own group, though exact stake yet to be determined. Cited an analyst estimate that Ito-Yokado could be valued at over JPY200B ($1.32B). Article recalled ValueAct Capital previously called for divestment of underperforming operations, though rejected by Isaka arguing superstores were critical to growth of convenience store operations.

    • TSMC fueling Taiwan index's record climb as revenue growth hits highest since 2022:

      • Taiwan Semiconductor (2330.TT) having a strong week with stock at fresh record high. On Wednesday it announced March quarter revenue growth of 16% q/q, topping expectations and marking fastest growth in more than a year (Bloomberg). Company also ramping up investments overseas with Bloomberg reporting agreement to build 2nm chip fab facility in Arizona that brings total investment in US up to $65B. In return company will receive $6.6B in grants and up to A$5B in loans from Biden administration under CHIPS Act. More broadly, company's strength has underpinned Taiwan benchmark's own record-breaking climb this year. Almost two-thirds of Taiex's gain in 2024 has come from TSMC, widening index's market cap lead over Korea by most since at least 2003 according to Bloomberg. Surging demand for TSMC and AI stocks has also fanned an ETF boom with Taiwan investors holding more than $50B in domestic equity ETFs, up more than 80% y/y and 12x higher than in 2019 (Bloomberg).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6% 11.HK (Hang Seng Bank): to launch up-to-HK$3B buyback, to run between 10-Apr and 9-Sep

      • +2.4% 5301.JP (Tokai Carbon): to acquire 350K shares of subsidiary TCK from KC Co for ¥5.2B

      • +2.4% 2357.TT (ASUSTek Computer): reports March revenue NT$49.74B, +1.0% y/y

      • +1.1% 9999.HK (NetEase): renews agreement to bring Blizzard titles back to China; Microsoft Gaming, NetEase enter broader collaboration

      • +1.1% 500325.IN (Reliance Industries): Tesla reportedly in talks with Reliance Industries to set up EV factory in India

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -8.5% 8570.JP (AEON Financial Service): reports FY ending Feb-24 earnings; guides FY ending Feb-25 EBIT ¥55.00B vs FactSet ¥61.52B

      • -1.6% 3382.JP (Seven & i): reportedly planning to list supermarket unit Ito-Yokado, mulling partial sale of supermarket business as early as 2026; responds to media reports and says no facts to support these reports, and nothing has been decided at this time

      • -0.1% 2269.JP (Meiji): guides FY revenue ¥1.113T vs prior guidance ¥1.099T and FactSet ¥1.107T

  • Data:

    • Economic

      • Japan March

        • Bank lending +3.2% y/y vs +3.0% in prior month

        • CGPI +0.8% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and revised +0.7% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (191.32) or (0.48%) to 39581.81

      • Hang Seng: 311.10 or +1.85% to 17139.17

      • Shanghai Composite: (21.20) or (0.70%) to 3027.34

      • Shenzhen Composite: (30.52) or (1.74%) to 1720.28

      • ASX200: 24.30 or +0.31% to 7848.50

      • KOSPI: 0.00 or 0.00% to 2705.16

      • SENSEX: 277.70 or +0.37% to 74961.40

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.07 or +0.05% to 151.8270

      • $-KRW: (5.90) or (0.44%) to 1346.4600

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.12%) to 0.6622

      • $-INR: (0.12) or (0.14%) to 83.1632

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2319

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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