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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.74%), Hang Seng (0.72%), Shanghai Composite +1.26% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 15 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities mostly weaker Monday. Rising geopolitical tensions drove early selling though regional benchmark indexes off worst levels and showed signs of stability. mainland China advanced as State Council renewed regulatory support for capital markets. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gaining. Treasury yields edging up. Yen fell to fresh 34-year low against dollar which prompted another warning from Tokyo that it will take "all necessary steps'. Aluminum and nickel spike attributed to US and UK announcing ban on newly produced Russian metals from LME and CME. Gold steady after gapping higher. Crude lower. Bitcoin recovering after hitting lowest since early March.

    • Escalating geopolitical tensions dominated headlines over the weekend while markets dealt with fallout from Iranian missile and drone assault against Israel. Oil prices declined as traders bet tensions won't escalate to full-blown conflict, however situation remains fluid with Israel vowing to respond. President Biden also reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu US won't support an Israeli counterattack.

    • PBOC left MLF rate unchanged while withdrawing a net CNY70B of cash from banking system, resulting in second straight net liquidity drain. Meanwhile, credit data on Friday showed new loans in March came less than expected while credit expansion continued to slow, reflecting still-weak borrowing demand as PBOC refrained from easing monetary policy. Separately, China's State Council pledged to tighten stock listing criteria, crack down on illegal share sales and strengthen supervision of dividend payouts in a guideline on capital market, the third such guidance since 2004. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said nothing off the table when dealing with China overcapacity, including use of additional tariffs. German Chancellor Scholz will tell leaders in Beijing to end discriminatory business practices soon to avoid EU tariffs meant to rebalance trade relationships, including on EVs.

    • In other developments, Japan machinery orders were well above expectations in February, reinforcing positive Q1 trajectory. Finance minister Suzuki said he was watching FX moves closely. India wholesale inflation in March came slightly higher than expected amid increase in prices of food and crude oil. Singapore Prime Minister Lee will hand over premiership to his deputy on 15-May.

    • Trump reiterated he would block planned buyout of US Steel (X) by Nippon Steel (5401.JP) if he returns to White House after shareholders of the Pennsylvania-based company approved merger proposal with over 98% voting in favor. China state fund Central Huijin Investment increased holdings for nearly CNY5B in Bank of China (3988.HK), ABC (1288.HK), ICBC (1398.HK) and CCB (939.HK) since October. China Vanke (2202.HK) said it has made comprehensive plan to stabilize operations and would prioritize using own resources to fix debt issues.

  • Digest:

    • PBOC leaves MLF rate unchanged with net liquidity drain as expected:

      • Newswires reported PBOC left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. Attention was on size with CNY100B in a partial rollover of CNY170B in maturing funds, also generally in line, and marks the second straight net liquidity drain via MLF operations. Reuters preview indicated yuan depreciation constraints seen to be elevating, prompting some thoughts PBOC is favoring cuts to RRR over policy rates. This is consistent with waning attention on policy rate expectations. Broader Reuters macro survey noted consensus looks for a 25 bp in RRR cut in Q3 and ceased to mention other rates -- partly reflecting sporadic forecasts spread over MLF/LPR as well as the marginal size of expected moves. Also ties in with longstanding market disappointment at the lack of signals for more forceful stimulus. Subdued expectations for the rollover size reflects predictions that signs of loosening in liquidity conditions will reduce demand for MLF loans. Article noted yield on 1-year AAA-rated NCDs has fallen consistently to 2.1352%, the lowest since November 2022.

    • Middle East tensions intensify as world awaits Israel response to Iran missile barrage:

      • Following Iranian drone and missile barrage at Israel on Saturday, question now revolves around whether/how/when Israel responds and if it triggers tit-for-tat response that results in full-blown conflict. While Israel vowed to respond, its officials reportedly divided on timing and scale of response and apparently not looking for significant escalation (Times of Israel). President Biden reportedly told Israel to accept the win and that US would not participate in an offensive against Iran (Washington Post, NY Times, CNN). Tehran also viewed matter as concluded and its UN ambassador said it was not seeking escalation. However, this was contingent on no further Israeli retaliation. Iranian actions were condemned by G7 leaders and UN Security Council. G7 flagged possible sanctions targeting Iran's drone and missile program (FT). However, leaders also seeking to de-escalate tensions with efforts being made to convince Israel not to stoke further military provocation.

    • Crude oil faces higher risk premium and supply:

      • Bloomberg discussed expectations for higher crude oil prices in the near term following Iran's attack on Israel. Markets set to heighten focus on flows through Strait of Hormuz, where potential interruptions could increase risk premium. Noted previous Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Seas have not impacted oil supplies though raised freight costs and boosted demand as shippers forced to make longer voyages. Cited FGE estimates that crude oil prices currently include a risk premium of about $10 per barrel and could add another $2~$5 from concern of further Israeli reprisals or Iranian interference with shipping around the Persian Gulf. In contrast, global supply forecasts were revised up through next year. Reuters reported US EIA raised production projections by ~280K bpd to 13.21M bpd in 2024 and 510K bpd to 13.72M bpd in 2025, compared to previous increases of 260K in 2024 and 460K in 2025. US consumption seen unchanged at a 200K bpd increase to 20.4M bpd in 2024. EIA said hike reflects expectations of strong global oil inventory draws in the current quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks. Furthermore, Nikkei cited IEA forecasts that global supply will exceed demand by 200K bpd in 2025, marking the first market glut in two years with slower China demand a key factor.

    • Japan machinery orders well above expectations:

      • Core machinery orders rose 7.7% m/m in February, much firmer than consensus 0.8% and follows 1.7% decline in the previous month. Result reinforces positive Q1 trajectory though still lower than the survey projection of 4.9% q/q growth. Strength was broadly based across manufacturers (led by pulp & paper, IT equipment) and core nonmanufacturers (real estate, mining & ceramics). Elsewhere, public orders extended gains while overseas orders edged higher after a sharper decline in January. Recall latest capex signals came from solid FY24 projections in the BOJ Tankan survey which contributed to mostly sanguine takeaways. Profit outlook was seen as relatively cautious, though expected to undergo upward revisions over the course of the year. Investment narrative remains unchanged with much of the impetus stemming from acute labor shortages as well as ongoing demand from digitization and green transformation. Dynamics also fit with evidence of passthrough of higher payroll costs onto prices supporting the BOJ's decision to end negative rates in March. Still, attention remains on the persistent gap between bullish guidance and actual investment.

    • Markets bracing for shallow easing cycle amid sticky inflation risks:

      • Sticky inflation concerns have driven a hawkish repricing of the rate path over recent weeks. Bloomberg aggregate measure of interest rates forecasts only 94 bp of easing in 2024 compared to 435 bp of tightening since mid-2021. Central banks confronting country- and region-specific considerations in their easing deliberations. Fed seeing pickup in pricing pressures as markets now price in less than two rate cuts in 2024 (vs seven being priced in in January). While ECB tracking for June rate cut, follow-up easing may be challenged by extent of euro weakness and related upside risk to inflation. Yen's fall to 34-year low has also tied into debate over BOJ normalization path with markets pricing in another ~22 bp of tightening by year-end. BOC has flagged possible June rate cut, but Canadian growth and house prices running hotter. Across Asia, South Korea contending with inflation reacceleration that has weakened case for rate cuts. RBI has maintained its hawkish bias with inflation still well above target. At the same time other central banks perceived to have stronger case to cut rates with BOE seeing clearer progress on inflation, RBNZ in recession, and SNB having already begun easing amid low inflation.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +10.6% 1766.HK (CRRC Corp.): guides Q1 net income attributable CNY923M-1.05B vs year-ago CNY615M

      • +3.8% 097950.KS (CJ CheilJedang): reportedly reviewing another attempt at selling CJ Feed&Care that could be valued at $2B (KRW2.754T)

      • +0.08% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): United States Steel shareholders approve Nippon Steel's offer

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.6% 1818.HK (Zhaojin Mining Industry): reports Q1 results; 132M-share secondary to be priced at HK$13.20/share through UBS and Huatai International; Zhaojin Capital increases offer price for Tietto Minerals to A$0.68/share from A$0.58/share; declares offer best and final

      • -8% 4503.JP (Astellas Pharma): guides FY net income attributable ¥3.00B vs prior guidance ¥58.00B due to impairment losses

      • -3.9% 7453.JP (Ryohin Keikaku): announces H1 results; reports March Mainland China LFL sales (2.7%) y/y

      • -0.5% 8306.JP (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial): reportedly looking to acquire 20% stake in HDFC Bank's HDB Financial Services for $2B (INR166.76B/¥306.58B); reportedly may submit offer for majority stake in Yes Bank

  • Data:

    • Economic

      • China

        • March new loans CNY3.09T vs consensus CNY3.56T and CNY1.45T in prior month (Friday)

          • Outstanding loan growth +9.6% y/y vs consensus +9.9% and +10.1% in prior month

          • Total social financing CNY4.87T versus consensus CNY4.70T and CNY1.56T in prior month

          • M2 money supply +8.3% y/y vs consensus +8.7% and +8.7% in prior month

      • Japan

        • February core machinery orders +7.7% m/m vs consensus +0.8% and (1.7%) in prior month

      • India

        • March WPI +0.53% y/y vs consensus +0.51% and +0.20% in February

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (290.75) or (0.74%) to 39232.80

      • Hang Seng: (121.23) or (0.72%) to 16600.46

      • Shanghai Composite: 37.90 or +1.26% to 3057.38

      • Shenzhen Composite: (5.04) or (0.30%) to 1702.68

      • ASX200: (35.60) or (0.46%) to 7752.50

      • KOSPI: (11.39) or (0.42%) to 2670.43

      • SENSEX: (605.57) or (0.82%) to 73639.33

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.70 or +0.46% to 153.9230

      • $-KRW: +1.99 or +0.14% to 1382.7000

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.06% to 0.6485

      • $-INR: (0.17) or (0.20%) to 83.4443

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.01% to 7.2376

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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