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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.32%), Hang Seng +0.02%, Shanghai Composite +2.14% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 17 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities finished mixed Wednesday. Some strong gains for mainland China's indices as sentiment improved and tech/small caps surged. Hang Seng also battled back to the flatline from early losses. South Korea lower again, Taiwan's Taiex surged ahead of TSMC results tomorrow. Australia flat, Southeast Asia mixed, Japan closing sharply lower and at the lows of the day. India closed for a holiday. US futures slightly higher, Europe seeing gains in the opening hour. US dollar now flat after early strength, several Asia currencies recovering from yesterday's selloff; yen and yuan flat. Oil futures lower, gold and industrial metals also down.

    • Asia equities with a rather directionless day as many investors remained nervous over currencies, and the potential for central bank intervention. The state of the China economy still top of mind for many Asia-ex investors too as the market continues to digest the PBOC's weakening of its daily reference point yesterday, and its future policy moves. A relief today for small caps after the CSRC moved to ease concerns over listing rules which improved sentiment for larger caps and, eventually, the Hang Seng.

    • A flight to safe havens and the Fed's hawkish stance on rates continue to support the dollar although several APAC currencies rallied a little from Tuesday's losses. The offshore yuan gained along with the AUD and NZD, the latter following a four-year low inflation print; the yen was largely unchanged against the dollar and euro. Elsewhere, IMF upgraded its 2024 global GDP growth forecast as well as upward revisions to China and India outlooks. Japan's Reuters Tankan survey showed Japan business sentiment fell back in April; the country's exports grew but imports sagged as consumers continued to struggle. Singapore non-oil exports tumbled as its volatile pharma sector saw shipments slide on its regular cycle.

    • LY Corp (4689.JP) received additional guidance from the ministry of internal affairs and communications over prior information leakage. China Vanke (2202.HK) is said to be considering selling its 21.4% stake in GLP and has discussed the sale with two state-owned firms. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) Q1 production fell slightly short of expectations as iron ore shipments from Pilbara fell.

  • Digest:

    • IMF marginally upgrades 2024 global growth forecast:

      • World Economic Outlook report showed 2024 global GDP growth projection revised up to 3.2% in 2024, compared to prior 3.1%, with 2025 unchanged at 3.2%. US projections upgraded to 2.7% in 2024 (from 2.1%) and 1.9% in 2025 (from 1.7%) on the back of carry-over effects from stronger than expected Q4 momentum. China unchanged at 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025 amid ongoing drags from the property downturn and warned domestic demand will remain lackluster without strong measures to address the root cause and monetary policy can afford to be more accommodative. However, IMF officials at a press conference acknowledged upside surprise in Q1 GDP which may prompt an upward revision. Overall, acknowledged remarkable global resilience highlighted by steady growth and rapid normalization in inflation. However, highlighted ongoing risks stemming from supply chain disruptions, energy and food crisis triggered by Russia's war on Ukraine, and past inflation surge that prompted globally synchronized monetary policy tightening. Updated outlook reflects reduced expectations of economic scarring from past crises, albeit mostly in developed economies. Sees global balance of risks broadly balanced, following negative skew last year. IMF still emphasized bringing inflation back to target should remain the priority, along with rebuilding fiscal buffers.

    • Asia EM central banks remain on alert over forex:

      • Asia Emerging Market currencies recovered overnight, early trading Wednesday but central banks remain on alert for fresh signs of weakening. Bank of Korea and finance ministry said they were watching forex moves with "special caution" after won reached near 18-month low, broke 1,400 per dollar Tuesday (Bloomberg). Bank Indonesia yesterday intervened directly in spot and forwards markets to support rupiah that fell to four-year lows through 16K level. Analysts now see higher chance of BI hiking rates next week to protect currency. Malaysia ringgit fell to 26-year low, prompting BNM to declare it would "manage risks arising from financial market volatility". Philippines central bank said rate cuts could be postponed if peso weakens remained. India Rupee fell to record low Tuesday, RBI quiet to date but intervened previously; analysts say INR 84 per dollar seen as red line versus current 83.6. Asia currency weakness related more to US dollar strength, weaker yuan reference point Monday added to weight on regional currencies (Bloomberg).

    • China small-cap stocks rebound after regulator downplays delisting risk:

      • China's small-cap stocks led rebound on mainland markets Wednesday with CSI 2000 Index of small-cap companies jumping over 6.5% and CSI 1000 Index gaining 3.8%, both outperforming broader indexes. Surges came after CSRC rushed to dissipate investor concerns about new stock exchange rules which stoked fears that more firms could face delisting risks. Head of CSRC department of listed company supervision Guo Ruiming said amended rules target so-called "zombie" firms or "bad actors" in market, not small caps. Added changes won't likely impact market in near term. Guo said only 30 companies could face delisting next year due to their financial metrics with another 100 firms could be tagged with "special treatment" warning, which would be given 1.5 years to improve performance Recall CSI 2000 dropped 11% in first two days of the week after release of State Council's new regulatory guideline last Friday, pledging to tighten listing criteria, crack down on illegal share sales and strengthen supervision of dividend payouts (Bloomberg).

    • Japan trade data mostly in line, external demand poised to contribute positively to Q1 GDP:

      • Customs exports rose 7.3% y/y in March, close to consensus 7.0%. Follows 7.8% in the previous month, marking the fourth straight increase. Autos remained the main driver, followed by electronics parts and maritime vessels. Headline growth reflected deceleration in US and EU, marginally outweighing pickup in Asia. China shipments accelerated notably, underpinning the aggregate. Imports fell 4.9% vs expected 5.1% decline, following a brief 0.5% increase in February. Coal and LNG remained the main drags, followed by nonferrous metals, overshadowing a surge in aircraft. However, volume indices showed exports fell for the second straight month with a deeper contraction in imports. BOJ real trade indices showed exports up 3.4% m/m and imports up 3.8%, leaving Q1 aggregates down 2.5% q/q and 4.5% respectively, reaffirming a net positive contribution to GDP growth from external demand. Recall recent consensus polls showed expectations of a GDP contraction reflecting temporary impacts from the auto sector certification scandal and the Noto Peninsula earthquake on New Year's Day.

    • New Zealand inflation confirmed at lowest since 2021, but still above RBNZ target range:

      • Headline CPI rose 4.0% y/y in Q1, matching expectations. Follows 4.7% in the prior quarter, marking the lowest since 2Q21. Still, NZ Stats noted current pace remains above the RBNZ's 1%~3% target range. Main drivers were housing and utilities reflecting rising rents (record high), new housing construction and rates. Sequential 0.6% q/q increase also in line, following 0.5% in Q4, lifted by hike in tobacco excise tax on 1-Jan. Non-tradeable inflation was 5.8% y/y following 5.9% in Q4, driven by rent, construction of new houses, and cigarettes and tobacco. Tradeable inflation was 1.6% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q4, as higher petrol and international accommodation was partly offset by lower international air transport and vegetables. RBNZ policy outlook unchanged after board members earlier this month agreed rates need to remain restrictive for a sustained period to ensure CPI returns to the target range. While expressing confidence in inflation returning to target this year, they have yet to offer guidance on future cuts.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +12% 4004.JP (Resonac Holdings): guides FY net income attributable ¥25.00B vs prior guidance ¥10.00B and FactSet ¥16.72B

      • +5.0% 2005.HK (SSY Group): reports Q1 net income attributable HK$416M vs year-ago HK$363M

      • +0.9% 3141.JP (Welcia Holdings): president Tadahisa Matsumoto resigns after company determined he committed inappropriate acts in personal life that have harmed the company's credibility

      • +0.0% RIO.AU (Rio Tinto): reports Q1 iron ore production (Mt) 77.9 vs StreetAccount 79.1

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -5.3% 4689.JP (LY Corp.): receives additional administrative guidance from Japan's MIAC over information leakage

      • -4.8% 271560.KS (ORION Corp (Korea)): guides FY24-26 dividend payout ratio to be above 20%

      • -2.1% 5019.JP (Idemitsu Kosan): sings sign agreements for capital and business alliance with Fuji Oil; to acquire 6.8M shares of Fuji Oil owned by JERA in off-market transaction

      • -1.8% 2202.HK (China Vanke): reportedly looking to sell 21.4% holding in GLP

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • April Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index +9 vs +10 in prior month

          • Service sector index +25 vs +32 in prior month

        • March trade balance ¥366.5B vs consensus ¥345.5B and revised (¥377.8B) in prior month

          • Exports +7.3% y/y vs consensus +7.0% and +7.8% in prior month

          • Imports (4.9%) y/y vs consensus (5.1%) and +0.5% in prior month

      • Singapore

        • March non-oil exports (20.7%) y/y vs consensus (7.4%) and (0.2%) in prior month

          • Non-oil exports (8.4%) m/m vs consensus +4.5% and (4.9%) in prior month

      • New Zealand

        • Q1 CPI +0.6% q/q vs consensus +0.6% and +0.5% in prior quarter

          • CPI +4.0% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and +4.7% in prior quarter

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (509.40) or (1.32%) to 37961.80

      • Hang Seng: 2.87 or +0.02% to 16251.84

      • Shanghai Composite: 64.31 or +2.14% to 3071.38

      • Shenzhen Composite: 62.31 or +3.80% to 1700.75

      • ASX200: (6.90) or (0.09%) to 7605.60

      • KOSPI: (25.45) or (0.98%) to 2584.18

      • SENSEX: 0.00 or 0.00% to 72943.68

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.07) or (0.05%) to 154.6260

      • $-KRW: (5.33) or (0.38%) to 1384.6200

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.23% to 0.6415

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.04% to 83.6809

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2370

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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