Apr 26 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed broadly higher Friday, near best levels. Best regional performers included Denmark +2.3%, Spain +1.6%, Netherlands +1.4%, Germany +1.4% and Sweden +1.3%.
Some positive ripples from the US where better big tech earnings and in-line core PCE print the key tailwinds for risk sentiment .
In Europe, the Tech sector outperformed with focus on news Thoma Bravo to acquire UK cyber security company Darktrace (DARK.LN). Construction & Materials the best sector performer, helped by Saint-Gobain (SGO.FP) following its Q1 update where it indicated growing confidence of a positive price/cost realisation and troughing of volumes. Kingspan (KRX.ID) was another sector gainer on back of its Q1 trading statement. Chemicals the main sector decliner amid Q1 earnings misses at Yara (YAR.NO) and IMCD (IMCD.NA). In other corporate highlights today, EP Corporate Group set to acquire 20% stake in ThyssenKrupp's (TKA.GR) steel business; said it is in discussions to purchase additional 30%; goal of establishing 50/50 jv. Anglo American (AAL.LN) today rejected BHP proposal; concluded that it significantly undervalues Anglo American and its future prospects. Meanwhile, according to CNBC, Elliott Management has built $1B stake in Anglo American. Airbus (AIR.FP) Q1 operating profit missed citing ramp-up costs and supply chain issues; every unit below expectations, FCF weak; analysts note Q1 always the lightest quarter but results mean there is even heavier-than-usual weighting for the balance of the year.
Elsewhere, not a whole lot going on in Europe today with much of the focus on Q1 reporting season and ongoing debate about policy divergence between ECB and Fed. Of note, ECB official Panetta said no Fed rate cuts this year will likely mean extra ECB rate cuts as a response. ECB's consumer expectations survey showed perceptions over inflation in the next 12 months are in decline, reinforcing likelihood of rate cuts over the summer. Elsewhere, Eurozone M3 money supply growth expanded in March. UK GfK consumer confidence improved in April amid optimism over personal finances. French consumer confidence eased. Latest e German Economic Institute (IW) data showed unemployment forecast to rise to highest level in a decade.
The week ahead sees EU Parliament election debate, UK local elections, Fed's decision, Norges Bank interest rate decision, Q1 preliminary GDPs and Apr preliminary CPIs from across the region as well as earnings/updates from the likes of Air France-KLM (AF.FP), A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSK.B.DC), AXA (CS.FP), Banco Santander (SAN.SM), GSK (GSK.LN), Philips (PHIA.NA), Shell (SHEL.LN), Societe Generale (GLE.FP), Stellantis (STLAM.IM), Vivendi (VIV.FP) and Volkswagen (VOW.GR). Note that on Wednesday next week, Labor Day holiday sees many of the region's markets closed.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Construct & Mtls +2.11%, Technology +1.93%, Real Estate +1.85%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.82%, Media +1.62%, Basic Resources +1.55%, Consumer Products and Services +1.38%, Autos & Parts +1.24%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +1.20%
Underperformers:
Chemicals (0.36%), Insurance +0.12%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.30%, Energy+0.50%, Telecom +0.59%, Utilities +0.70%, Travel & Leisure +0.71%, Banks +0.86%, Health Care +1.04%, Retail +1.11%
Macro:
Central banks
Geopolitics
Sweden plans to increase military spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2030, exceeding NATO's minimum goal - Bloomberg
UK
France
French government holds its breath ahead of credit rating updates - Le Monde
Germany
German unemployment seen rising to highest level in almost a decade - Reuters
Italy:
Cross-party bid to spread Superbonus tax deductions - ANSA
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+81.8% CAR.LN (Carclo £0.13, +0.06) -- FY trading update
+23.3% MCOV.B.SS (Medicover SEK160.80, +30.40) -- Q1 earnings
+22.0% FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO €11.90, +2.14) -- Q1 earnings
+16.4% DARK.LN (Darktrace £6.01, +0.85) -- Thoma Bravo to acquire company for 620p/share; shares downgraded at Needham, Liberum, Piper Sandler
+13.3% BETS.B.SS (Betsson SEK121.40, +14.30) -- Q1 earnings
+12.2% KEMIRA.FH (Kemira €19.13, +2.09) -- Q1 earnings
+11.9% DNORD.DC (D/S Norden DKK310.80, +33.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+11.4% WRT1V.FH (Wartsila €17.50, +1.78) -- Q1 earnings
+11.3% ALGIL.FP (Groupe Guillin €29.50, +3.00) -- FY earnings
+10.6% ERA.FP (Eramet €87.70, +8.40) -- target price raised at Stifel; firm says unexpected but exceptional shortage on manganese set to increase profits significantly
+8.5% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions NOK42.60, +3.34) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+8.4% QTCOM.FH (Qt Group €73.35, +5.65) -- Inderes upgrade
+7.4% TTALO.FH (Terveystalo €8.51, +0.59) -- Q1 earnings
+7.1% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK95.80, +6.40) -- signs landmark sportsbook partnership with Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma
+7.1% MEN.LN (Molecular Energies £0.08, -0.00) -- Last day of trading
+7.0% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €4.77, +0.31) -- EP Corporate Group set to acquire 20% stake in company's steel business; in discussions to purchase additional 30%; goal of establishing 50/50 jv.
+6.6% SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain €75.02, +4.62) -- Q1 revenue; CSR notes Independent Expert concludes Saint-Gobain scheme fair and reasonable; in best interest of shareholders
+6.5% NEWA.B.SS (New Wave Group SEK101.90, +6.20) -- SEB upgrade
+6.5% ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux SEK95.40, +5.82) -- Q1 earnings; CEO to step down
+5.7% GBT.FP (Guerbet €37.70, +2.05) -- Q1 revenue; Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+5.5% KCR.FH (Konecranes €49.18, +2.54) -- Inderes upgrade
+4.8% BITTI.FH (Bittium €6.06, +0.28) -- Q1 earnings
+4.0% AMUN.FP (Amundi €66.18, +2.55) -- Q1 earnings
+3.8% AAL.LN (Anglo American £26.63, +0.98) -- Elliott Management said to have built $1B stake in Anglo American -- CNBC / Anglo American rejects BHP proposal; concludes that it significantly undervalues Anglo American and its future prospects
+3.6% SBS.GR (Stratec €42.10, +1.45) -- Q1 earnings
+3.3% JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins €19.26, +0.62) -- Q1 earnings
+3.3% APETIT.FH (Apetit €14.25, +0.45) -- Q1 earnings
+3.2% PROX.BB (Proximus €7.04, +0.22) -- Q1 earnings
+3.0% ITM.LN (ITM Power £0.52, +0.02) -- partnership with Hygen for industry growth
+2.9% DEZ.GR (Deutz AG €5.68, +0.16) -- initiated outperform at Oddo
+0.9% CTT.SS (CTT Systems SEK323.00, +3.00) -- Q1 earnings
Trading Lower:
-10.7% LIGHT.NA (Signify €25.30, -3.02) -- Q1 earnings
-10.4% ATE.FP (Alten €115.30, -13.40) -- Q1 revenue
-7.7% TRIN.LN (Trinity Exploration & Production £0.36, -0.03) -- Q1 operational update
-6.6% CTEC.LN (ConvaTec Group £2.58, -0.18) -- Peel Hunt downgrade
-6.2% YAR.NO (Yara International NOK318.70, -21.20) -- Q1 earnings
-5.7% DORO.SS (Doro SEK21.50, -1.30) -- Q1 earnings
-5.4% LINDEX.FH (Lindex Group €2.97, -0.17) -- Q1 earnings; CFO to step down
-4.8% IMCD.NA (IMCD €141.95, -7.10) -- Q1 earnings
-4.7% MDG1.GR (Medigene €1.52, -0.08) -- Q1 earnings
-4.6% TOM.NO (Tomra Systems NOK139.50, -6.80) -- Q1 earnings; signs long-term recycling feedstock supply agreements with OMV and Borealis
-4.6% BRNK.GR (Branicks Group €1.30, -0.06) -- cooperation with Encavis Asset Management AG
-4.5% SGG.SS (Sensys Gatso Group SEK75.50, -3.50) -- Q1 earnings
-4.3% NELLY.SS (Nelly Group SEK16.64, -0.74) -- Q1 earnings
-3.9% CEVI.SS (CellaVision SEK222.50, -9.00) -- Pareto downgrade
-3.8% LAT1V.FH (Lassila & Tikanoja €8.60, -0.34) -- Q1 earnings
-3.1% FR.FP (Valeo SE €11.55, -0.37) -- Q1 revenue
-2.8% THRU.LN (Thruvision Group £0.18, -0.01) -- FY trading update
-2.7% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €32.90, -0.90) -- Q1 earnings
-1.6% REC.LN (Record £0.62, -0.01) -- FY trading update
-1.5% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon SEK120.40, -1.85) -- Q1 earnings
-1.5% BRCK.LN (Brickability Group £0.67, -0.01) -- FY trading update
-0.9% ELTEL.SS (Eltel SEK6.74, -0.06) -- Q1 earnings
-0.7% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €157.28, -1.18) -- Q1 earnings
-0.7% WAF.GR (Siltronic €76.05, -0.50) -- adjusts FY24 guidance; expects a significant decline in EBIT
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: Koninklijke Philips (PHIA.NA)
DACHs: Logitech International (LOGN.SW), BAWAG Group (BG.AV), MorphoSys (MOR.GR), Sto SE & Co. KGaA (STO3.GR), GK Software (GKS.GR), PharmaSGP Holding (PSG.GR)
France: Waga Energy (WAGA.FP)
Nordics: Nokian Renkaat (TYRES.FH), Oma Savings Bank (OMASP.FH), Ratos (RATO.B.SS),
Southern Europe: Unicaja Banco (UNI.SM), Prosegur Compania de Seguridad (PSG.SM), Lottomatica Group (LTMC.IM), Digital Value (DGV.IM), Ibersol (IBS.PL)
UK: Oxford Biomedica (OXB.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Recticel (RECT.BB)
DACHs: Grammer (GMM.GR)
France: Vivendi (VIV.FP), Bollore (BOL.FP), Exclusive Networks (EXN.FP), Vicat (VCT.FP), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Vetoquinol SA (VETO.FP), Deezer (DEEZR.FP)
Nordics: Remedy Entertainment (REMEDY.FH), Green Hydrogen Systems (GREENH.DC)
UK: Beazley (BEZ.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Norway Mar Retail Sales +0.3% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior revised +0.2% from +0.1%
Sweden Mar Trade Balance SEK4.8B vs consensus SEK5.9B and prior revised SEK10.9B from SEK9.3B
France Apr Consumer Confidence 90 vs consensus 92 and prior 91
Spain
Q1 Unemployment Rate 12.3% vs consensus 11.8% and prior revised 11.8% from 11.7%
Mar Retail Sales +0.6% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior revised 1.8% from +1.9%; (0.5%) m/m vs consensus +0.6% and prior +0.5%
Eurozone Mar M3 Money Supply +0.9% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 24): +$0.49 or +0.59% to $84.06
€-$ (0.0044) or (0.41%) to 1.0687
£-$ (0.0048) or (0.39%) to 1.2465
€-£ (0.0001) to 0.8575
S&P 500 +0.98%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.26%
DAX: +8.41%
CAC: +7.23%
MIB: +12.84%
Stoxx 600: +6.05%
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