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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Hang Seng +0.54%, Shanghai Composite +0.79%, Kospi +1.17% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 29 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Monday. Strong gains for Greater China as Shenzhen led and Hong Kong touched 18K at one point before easing back. The Kospi, Taiex and ASX were all higher, Southeast Asia was mostly better, India also seeing a solid start to the week. Japan closed for a holiday but Nikkei futures are higher. US futures point to a positive start, Europe opened with gains. US dollar lower, dragged by significant strengthening in yen; AUD and NZD notably stronger as their sovereigns rallied. Crude oil lower, gold flat. Industrial metals higher again.

    • Notable volatility in the yen Monday as it weakened sharply to touch 160 per dollar before a steep strengthening on a possible intervention from Tokyo. JGBs and equity markets closed for trading today but Nikkei futures, which had surged to a 2% gain early morning, also fell back. Japan's top currency diplomat Kanda declined to comment on the possible intervention but analysts said there was nothing else that could have caused such volatility.

    • Elsewhere, another warning today from the PBOC to regional banks over holding long-dated bonds and extended leverage on their books. Move responsible for sharp rally in CGB yields to two-month highs. China equities stronger today as momentum from last week continued. Hang Seng on the edge of a bull market following last week's surge, is now almost 21% higher from its lows and 4% higher YTD. Property developers key drivers of today's gains after CIFI became latest to agree terms with bondholders over debt restructuring. Separately, Chengdu announced relaxation of homebuying restrictions, solidifying support. Macau casino stocks also surged on changes to China's visa rules.

    • CIFI Holdings (884.HK) said it had reached an agreement with bondholder AHG over terms of a restructuring; shares sharply higher. China Vanke (2202.HK) said it 'firmly opposed' Moody's recent rating downgrade as it did not reflect progress made in its restructuring progress. China Life Insurance (2628.HK) is to inject CNY3.1B into a limited partnership to buy a 49.9% stake in a Sino-Ocean Group (3377.HK) project company. L'Occitane's (973.HK) owner is close to a potential $7B buyout of the company; stock remained suspended. BHP Group (BHP.AU) is considering whether to make an improved offer for Anglo American (AAL.LN) after its initial offer was rejected. Singtel (Z74.SP) said it would take an impairment provision of around SG$3.1B for H2-24 but underlying profit targets remain in place.

  • Digest:

    • Yen volatile amid intervention speculation:

      • Yen volatile in Asian trade Monday. Pace of declines accelerated following BOJ's hold decision Friday and dovish takeaways from Governor Ueda's comments on yen, sending currency below 160 per dollar for first since 1990 (Bloomberg). However, currency rallied sharply; MOF suspected of intervention but currency diplomat Kenda declined to comment (Reuters). Yen volatility follows drumbeat of intervention speculation after Japan officials vowed readiness to act if needed. Finance Minister Suzuki's trilateral meeting with his US and South Korean counterparts earlier this month, where all three officials acknowledged shared concerns about recent sharp depreciation, was seen laying groundwork for possible intervention (Bloomberg). FX strategists also saw intervention as more likely in response to disorderly yen moves. Some thought Monday's heightened volatility a function of thin liquidity with Japan closed for public holiday. Positioning may also be having an influence after bearish yen contracts surged to a new record high as of 23-Apr, according to CFTC.

    • China stocks extend outperformance as Hang Seng flirts with bull market:

      • China stocks continue to beat global peers with MSCI China index tracking for its biggest outperformance over MSCI EM ex-China index since Nov-2022 (Bloomberg). Hang Seng near bull market territory with gain of more than 20% from late January lows. Bullish narrative has largely been built around benchmark indexes' wide valuation discount to global peers, continued southbound flows (positive for 21 straight days), foreign fund inflows (hit record high Friday, per Bloomberg), signs of economic stabilization in Q1, better-than-expected earnings, state-backed market support, capital market reform push, and regulatory focus on boosting Hong Kong's global hub status via encouraging more IPO listings. While sentiment has turned more bullish, bearish narrative still largely revolves around tepid economic activity, deflation pressures, depressed housing, geopolitical tensions and absence of large-scale fiscal stimulus aimed at boosting consumption.

    • Yuan devaluation speculation emerges:

      • Yuan devaluation speculation gaining some traction as dollar's strength exerts downward pressure on lower yielding counterparts (Bloomberg). China's rapid rise in gold trading and buildup of copper stocks has fed speculation authorities are preparing for a such move (FT, ZH). Devaluation would be considered highly controversial given Aug-2015 devaluation worsened volatility and intensified capital outflow pressures, forcing authorities into a multi-month effort to stabilize markets. Proponents argue devaluation would provide authorities a way to support exports, combat deflation and boost domestic growth, while giving scope for PBOC to relax control over the currency which has frequently traded at bottom end of allowed 2% trading band. However, also risk of a devaluation sparking fresh tumult with negative spillover effects, resulting in situation where currencies of Asian exporters slide and force authorities there to tighten monetary policy or step up FX intervention. Devaluation also risks undermining China's focus on stability while potentially provoking US backlash in an election year.

    • PBOC warns regional lenders of excessive long-duration bond holdings:

      • Bloomberg reported PBOC has advised some city and rural commercial banks in at least two eastern China provinces to avoid significant exposure to ultra-long bond investments. Sources said regional lenders were told to reduce duration and leverage on these holdings. Move came after central bank shored up efforts to rein in rally in long-term sovereign bonds, ramping up rhetoric to correct mismatch between yields and economic fundamentals. There was a subsequent selloff in sovereign debt while investors relocated funds to chase rally in Chinese stocks, which sent 30Y yield above 2.59% Monday, highest in more than two months while 10Y yield also rose. Recall investors rushed to bonds this year amid growing bets of further easing monetary policy by PBOC as economy is facing a still-sluggish consumer demand and property doldrums. Bond rallies also attributed to large purchases by wealth management funds and haven demand from local institutions, which prompted growing number of fixed-income funds to set limits on investor inflows (Bloomberg).

  • China's industrial profits disappoint in March:

    • Profits at industrial firms in China declined 3.5% y/y in March, ending streak of growth since last August. For the first three months of 2024, profits grew 4.3%, slower than 10.2% rise in Jan-Feb. Data added to a raft of other macro indicators such as retail sales and industrial profits that pointed to still-weak domestic demand, raising doubts about strength of recovery despite solid Q1 GDP growth (Reuters). Declining factory-gate prices have squeezed profit margins and led industrial firms to double down on exports while complicated by growing geopolitical tensions that western countries accuse Beijing of overcapacity and hint at new trade barriers. Policymakers under pressure to shore up domestic demand as economists see rate cuts by PBOC this year and program to boost spending on big-ticket items (Bloomberg). Some bright spots in high-tech and automobile manufacturing that grew 29.1% and 32% respectively in Q1, while NBS said recovery of firms' profits was uneven and patchy.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +18.3% 884.HK (CIFI Holdings (Group)): provides update on the holistic solution for offshore liquidity situation; reaches agreement in principle with AHG

    • +10.0% 2891.TT (CTBC Financial Holding): proposes FY dividend NT$1.8/share vs year-ago NT$1/share

    • +6.3% 1299.HK (AIA Group): reports Q1 new business results; VONB $1.33B vs year-ago $1.05B; adds $2B to existing $10B share buy-back programme

    • +5.9% 051910.KS (LG Chem): enters the "vehicular transparency control film" market

    • +5.6% 096770.KS (SK Innovation): reports Q1 operating profit KRW624.74B vs StreetAccount KRW484.52B, revenue KRW18.855T vs StreetAccount KRW18.362T

    • +4.0% 068270.KS (Celltrion): Celltrion USA signs agreement with Express Scripts for autoimmune diseases therapy including ZYMFENTRA

    • +2.5% 20.HK (SenseTime Group): reportedly aims to record profit after one to two years

    • +1.0% 2454.TT (MediaTek): reports Q1 EPS NT$19.85 vs FactSet NT$14.61, revenue NT$133.46B vs FactSet NT$127.90B; guides Q2 revenue NT$121.4-133.5B, +19-30% y/y and flat to (9%) q/q

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -2.5% 010140.KS (Samsung Heavy Industries Co.): reports Q1 operating profit KRW77.9B vs FactSet KRW80.42B

    • -2.5% 600547.CH (Shandong Gold Mining): reports Q1 net income attributable CNY699.9M vs guidance CNY650-750M

    • -2.5% Z74.SP (Singtel): to recognise exceptional non-cash impairment provisions of around SG$3.1B for 2H24, FY underlying net profit remains on track

    • -1.9% 3969.HK (China CRSC): reports Q1 net income attributable CNY604.5M, (11%) vs year-ago CNY678.0M

Data:

  • Economic:

    • China

      • Jan-Mar industrial profits YTD +4.3% y/y vs +10.2% in Jan-Feb (27-Apr)

      • March industrial profits (3.5%) y/y

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: Closed

    • Hang Seng: 95.76 or +0.54% to 17746.91

    • Shanghai Composite: 24.41 or +0.79% to 3113.04

    • Shenzhen Composite: 39.95 or +2.31% to 1768.44

    • ASX200: 61.50 or +0.81% to 7637.40

    • KOSPI: 31.11 or +1.17% to 2687.44

    • SENSEX: 821.96 or +1.11% to 74552.12

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (2.47) or (1.56%) to 155.6500

    • $-KRW: (1.03) or (0.07%) to 1376.6400

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.32% to 0.6564

    • $-INR: +0.05 or +0.05% to 83.4479

    • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2456

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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