May 02 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher amid Asia equities trading mixed Thursday. Hong Kong sharply higher as Japan swung to brief gains while Australia remains moderately firmer. US futures recovered from a weak finish to the cash session that saw significant volatility around the FOMC meeting. Dollar mostly on the softer side, overshadowed by clearer yen declines in a retracement from a sudden spike thought to be driven by more FX intervention. Crude oil and gold futures firmer, Bitcoin recovering from earlier sharp declines.
On today's agenda, OECD Ministerial Council Meeting and Economic Outlook. In UK, there are local elections as well as a by-election in Blackpool South (won by Conservative Party in 2019 general election, though Scott Benton suspended by Party, sat as Independent, before resigning) (BBC, UK in a Changing Europe). In parliament, MPs questions on business and trade at 9:30BST. EU's von der Leyen in Lebanon, accompanied by the President of Cyprus, meet with Lebanese PM whilst EU's Sinkevi�?ius speaks at the 'Fireside chat about EU elections', organised by JEF Europe (Young European Federalists).
In central banks, Bundesbank's Balz on panel - title digital euro - what happens next? - at 17:00CET at one of the bank's regional offices. ECB's Lane lecture at 22:15CET at Univ. of Stanford
Macroeconomic releases today include: Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland Apr manufacturing PMI and final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany, Switzerland Apr CPI, Mar retail sales, Italy Mar PPI, UK Apr house price index - Nationwide, Austria Apr unemployment rate, Greece Mar unemployment rate. Also, France, Italy, Spain Apr new car registrations are due.
In corporate news, ArcelorMittal (MT.NA) reports Q1 EPS $1.16 vs StreetAccount $0.91 and said capex in 2024 is expected to remain within the $4.5-$5.0B range. Still in the Netherlands, ING Groep (INGA.NA) reports Q1 net income €1.58B vs consensus €1.42B and announces €2.5B buyback. DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR.NA) Q1 adjusted EBITDA €463M vs consensus €465.0M; reaffirms FY guidance.
Out of the Nordics, GN Store Nord (GN.DC) reports Q1 EPS DKK1.74 vs consensus DKK0.77; confirms FY guidance. Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) Q1 EPS DKK5.68 vs consensus DKK5.27 and raises FY sales growth guidance to +19-27% at CER vs prior guidance +18-26%. Vestas Wind Systems (VWS.DC) Q1 net income (€75M) vs StreetAccount (€5M); maintains FY guidance.
In France, Worldline (WLN.FP) reports Q1 revenue €1.10B vs consensus €1.08B and confirms 2024 objectives. In the UK, Standard Chartered (STAN.LN) Q1 underlying EPS $0.53 vs FactSet $0.37
From the DACH region, Siltronic (WAF.GR) reports Q1 EPS €0.86 vs FactSet €0.16. Swisscom (SCMN.SW) Q1 net income CHF455M vs consensus CHF417M with FY24 outlook confirmed and said Vodafone Italia transaction on track
Macro/Politics
A message from the IMF on how to fix the EU's 'limping' single market - FT
Polls set to open across England and Wales as voting takes place in local elections - Sky
Swinney expected to launch his campaign to become SNP leader - BBC
Powell's soothing tone may not be enough for inflation-spooked markets - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux
MT.NA (ArcelorMittal) -- reports Q1 EPS $1.16 vs StreetAccount $0.91
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- reports Q1 net income €1.58B vs consensus €1.42B; announces €2.5B buyback and guides FY24
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €463M vs consensus €465.0M; Reaffirms FY guidance
BAMNB.NA (Koninklijke BAM Groep) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €44.0M, (24%) vs year-ago €57.9M
Nordics
GN.DC (GN Store Nord) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK1.74 vs consensus DKK0.77; confirms FY guidance
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK5.68 vs consensus DKK5.27; raises FY sales growth guidance to +19-27% at CER vs prior guidance +18-26%
ISS.DC (ISS A/S) -- reports Q1 revenue DKK20.09B vs StreetAccount DKK20.24B; confrmrs FY24 outlook
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK11.80 vs consensus DKK10; FY organic growth guidance upgraded to "8-10%" from previously "6-9%"
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- reports Q1 net income (€75M) vs StreetAccount (€5M); maintains FY guidance
France
WLN.FP (Worldline) -- reports Q1 revenue €1.10B vs consensus €1.08B
NEOEN.FP (Neoen) -- reports Q1 revenue €141.4M vs FactSet €142.0M [1 est]; reaffirms FY Adjusted EBITDA guidanc
TE.FP (Technip Energies) -- reports Q1 adjusted net income attributable €90.1M vs FactSet €89.1M; on track to deliver FY guidance
UK
STAN.LN (Standard Chartered) -- reports Q1 underlying EPS $0.53 vs FactSet $0.37 [6 est, $0.35-0.39]
DACHs
RAA.GR (Rational) -- reports Q1 EPS €4.94 vs FactSet €4.67 [5 est, €4.42-5.10]; confirms FY24 forecast
SCMN.SW (Swisscom) -- reports Q1 net income CHF455M vs consensus CHF417M; FY24 outlook confirmed and Vodafone Italia transaction on track
WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.86 vs FactSet €0.16 [5 est, (€0.81)-0.89]
G24.GR (Scout24) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.54 vs FactSet €0.64 [2 est, €0.59-0.68]; reaffirms FY24 guidance
BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss) -- reports Q1 net income €41M vs FactSet €42.2M
RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International) -- reports Q1 consolidated profit €664M vs consensus €571M; FY guidance for the Group including Russia and Belarus has been suspended
M&A
BN.FP (Danone) -- acquires Functional Formularies; terms undisclosed
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- Sanofi's Beyfortus substantially reduced RSV lower respiratory tract disease and hospitalizations in infants during the 2023-2024 RSV season, versus no intervention
Other
BATS.LN (British American Tobacco) -- BAT to commence second stage of £700M FY24 share buyback
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- announces share buyback programme of up to €2.5B
VIE.FP (Veolia Environnement) -- awarded $24.9M US Army contract
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- ENGIE and City of Oceanside announce 30-year comprehensive energy project
DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding) -- Daimler Truck concerned slow progress adding charging infrastructure is threatening shift to zero-emission trucking - Bloomberg
Key rating changes
Upgrades
KEMIRA.FH (Kemira) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen) -- to hold from sell at Danske Bank
RI.FP (Pernod Ricard) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
WAVE.FP (Wavestone) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
AMP.IM (Amplifon) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
SCATC.NO (Scatec) -- to sell from hold at DnB Markets
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
SALM.NO (Salmar) - to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
Initiations
GALD.SW (Galderma Group) -- buy at Jefferies; buy at Goldman Sachs
Data
Nikkei (0.04%) to 38260.59
Hang Seng +2.35% to 18180.47
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3104.82
S&P futures +24.5 vs prior close of 5046.5
€-$ (0.0005) or (0.05%) to 1.0707
$-¥ +2.42 or +1.57% to 156.97
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