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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.34%), Hang Seng +1.22%, Shanghai Composite +0.83% as of 04:10 ET

May 09 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed Thursday as volatility increased following several quiet sessions. Greater China boards among those to see gains following stronger-than-expected trade data and positive news for the property sector. Japan's Topix board gained but the Nikkei fell. South Korea, Taiwan and India all down again, Southeast Asia mostly lower. Australia closed at its lows of the day, dragged by banks and retail stocks. US futures lower, Europe opened mixed. US dollar continues to hover at week-long highs, yen weaker again while other Asia currencies steady. Treasury yields higher across tenors, Asia yields mostly higher as global bond selloff extended into region. Crude oil, precious and industrial metals all higher.

    • More tentative signals today the worst may be over for China's economy and markets after trade data showed both imports and exports returned to y/y growth in April. It added to earlier Q1 GDP and April PMI prints to indicate at least an economic floor being reached, if not a full-scale recovery. More positive news for the property sector too as the city of Hangzhou shed its final home-ownership restrictions, while a notice from Country Garden that it would miss a coupon payment on a local bond was largely shrugged off.

    • In other macro developments, BOJ Summary of Opinions reflected a notable hawkish swing by board members. The yen weakened again today, drawing in more warnings on volatility and its impact on monetary policy from the ministry of finance and BOJ. Japan nominal wage growth slowed in March, leaving real wages down for a 24th straight month. Japan FX reserves fell notably in April though questionable whether this was intervention-related or not. Philippines Q1 GDP showed growth momentum continued but high interest rates and inflation yet to bite. Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.0%, as expected.

    • Sony Corp (6758.JP) and Apollo (APO) are said to be considering the sale of cable channels, Paramount+ streaming, and CBS broadcast network as part of their Paramount offer. Country Garden (2007.HK) said it would miss an interest payment on a local 3.95% bond guaranteed by a state-backed support program, triggering a five-day grace period; stock remains suspended. Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (388.HK) CEO said she expects IPOs to return to Hong Kong soon as condition improve and regulators offer support.

  • Digest:

    • China exports return to growth while imports rise well above expectations:

      • Customs exports rose 1.5% y/y in April, in line with Reuters consensus and following 7.5% decline in March. Imports rose sharply by 8.4%, well above 4.8% growth expected and 1.9% drop March, leading to trade surplus of $72.35B, compared with $77.5B expected and last month's $58.55B. Bloomberg said data confirms signs that global demand is strengthening and providing boost to domestic growth as Beijing counting on sales overseas to offset weak consumer spending at home. SCMP added OECD noted Chinese exports would pick up again as demand recovers while more Chinese goods become competitive globally. Meanwhile Reuters citing analysts noted Chinese exporters are continuing to cut prices to maintain shares abroad as highlighted by export volumes rising to record highs in March. For first four months of 2024, ASEAN remains top trading partner, followed by EU and US. Notably both exports and imports fell with EU while exports to US grew 2.4% y/y, imports from US down 2.5%.

    • BOJ Summary of Opinions reveals extended debate on FX impacts:

      • Summary of Opinions for the April MPM included several views on the impact of yen weakness. One noted yen depreciation and high crude oil prices have weakened the premise that cost-push factors will wane, posing potential upside risk to the outlook. Another already observed higher import prices. One remark suggested the possibility of a renewed cost passthrough phase. Yen depreciation also adds to upside risks to inflation, combining with potentially stronger than expected wage-price spiral, active fiscal policy and lack of supply capacity. Comments on monetary policy reaffirmed a dovish stance for the time being, but forward-looking views pointed to the possibility of a rate path higher than what is priced in the market and calls for open discussions about timing and degree of rate hikes. Board members also clearly eyeing an eventual reduction in JGB purchases, though seemingly easing into the topic to avoid causing market disruptions. Recall the April meeting came against the backdrop of growing market calls for a monetary policy response to yen weakness, largely a function of US-Japan rate differentials.

    • Japan real wages extend record declines, hopes turn to data from around June:

      • Average nominal wages rose 0.6% y/y in March, below consensus 1.4%, following revised 1.4% in the previous month. Main drag was special payments, though signal value is limited outside of semiannual bonus season. Contracted earnings grew at a steady pace amid little changes in scheduled and overtime payments. Real wages were left down 2.5%, weaker than expectations of a 1.4% decline. Follows revised 1.8% drop in February and extends the down streak to a record 24th straight month. Total hours worked fell a sharp 2.7% y/y, mostly reflecting scheduled as well as overtime shifts. To be sure, impacts from this year's historic shunto wage hikes were not expected to impact the data until at least April, which marks the start of the new fiscal year. Nikkei anticipated a meaningful pickup from around Jun~Aug, coinciding with temporary income tax breaks from June that will further boost real disposable incomes. Offsetting this will be the expiring electricity/gas subsidies after the May billing period. Also discussed potential impacts from yen weakness, adding to inflation and posing more of a drag on real incomes.

    • Malaysia central bank keeps rates steady:

      • Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.0% for sixth consecutive meeting Thursday, in line with consensus forecasts. Bank repeated current stance remains supportive of economy, consistent with inflation and growth projections. Noted Q1's higher economic growth on improved exports, domestic consumption; warned downside risks still gyrate around commodity prices, external demand, financial markets volatility. Analysts said stronger economy, relatively low inflation, outperforming currency behind BNM's decision to retain rate, prospects also good with tourists returning, multi-year infrastructure projects starting, tech upgrade cycle set to improve economy in coming quarters (Bloomberg). Bank expects FY GDP at 4.0-5.0%, inflation to remain moderate around 2.0% although this is dependent on price controls removal. Added bank looking beyond monetary policy to support ringgit, working with government to improve inflows to better reflect fundamentals.

    • China market narrative more upbeat, but skepticism remains:

      • Nikkei latest to discuss positive developments in China markets. Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite sustaining YTD gains Wednesday. Hang Seng broke a winning streak of 10 straight sessions, the longest run since January 2018. Article continued to cite traction from stronger than expected China Q1 GDP while PMIs remain in expansion, and Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for China has remained in positive territory since early February. Equity strength stimulated some discussion of FOMO but Morgan Stanley cautioned against momentum trades amid ongoing skepticism related to policy mix and real estate turmoil (Bloomberg). Still, optimists becoming more vocal as foreign selling pressure has subsided (SCMP). Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimated China A-Share valuations could rise as much as 40% if China narrows corporate governance gap including shareholder payouts. Bloomberg discussed sustainability and suggested prospects hinge on China Big Tech earnings next week.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +15.5% 9688.HK (ZAI Lab): reports Q1 EPS ($0.05) vs FactSet ($0.92), revenue $87.1M vs StreetAccount $76.7M

      • +9.4% 7951.JP (Yamaha): reports FY revenue ¥462.87B vs FactSet ¥459.09B, core operating profit ¥33.65B vs FactSet ¥32.17B

      • +7.7% 6645.JP (OMRON): reports Q4 operating income ¥7.8B vs StreetAccount (¥819.9M), revenue ¥210.8B vs StreetAccount ¥205.74B

      • +7% 8591.JP (ORIX): reports Q4 revenue ¥770.61B, +15% vs year-ago ¥671.12B; to launch up-to-¥50.0B buyback, to run from 15-May through 31-Mar-25

      • +5.5% 6160.HK (BeiGene): reports Q1 EPADS ($2.41) vs FactSet ($3.07), total revenue $751.7M vs FactSet $670.1M

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.6% 6963.JP (ROHM Co.): reports FY revenue ¥467.78B vs vs StreetAccount ¥469.07B, operating income ¥43.33B vs StreetAccount ¥44.43B

      • -2.2% 035720.KS (Kakao): reports Q1 operating profit KRW120.29B vs StreetAccount KRW127.29B; guides growth of more than double digits y/y in FY24 revenue

      • -1.1% 032640.KS (LG Uplus): reports Q1 operating profit KRW220.9B vs StreetAccount KRW240.98B

      • -0.8% 6758.JP (Sony): Sony, Apollo reportedly plan to sell CBS, cable channels after buying Paramount; Paramount reportedly in talks to open books to Sony, Apollo

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan March

        • Average nominal wages +0.6% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and revised +1.4% in prior month

          • Real wages (2.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.4%) and revised (1.8%) in prior month

        • Leading economic index 111.4 vs consensus 111.0 and 112.1 in prior month

          • Coincident index 113.9 vs 111.5 in prior month

      • China April

        • Trade balance $72.35B vs consensus $77.5B and $58.55B in prior month

          • Exports +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and (7.5%) in prior month

          • Imports +8.4% y/y vs consensus +4.8% and (1.9%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (128.39) or (0.34%) to 38073.98

      • Hang Seng: 223.95 or +1.22% to 18537.81

      • Shanghai Composite: 25.84 or +0.83% to 3154.32

      • Shenzhen Composite: 23.78 or +1.34% to 1796.61

      • ASX200: (82.90) or (1.06%) to 7721.60

      • KOSPI: (32.91) or (1.20%) to 2712.14

      • SENSEX: (783.99) or (1.07%) to 72682.40

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.32 or +0.21% to 155.8430

      • $-KRW: +4.99 or +0.37% to 1370.1400

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.06%) to 0.6574

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 83.4971

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 7.2247

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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