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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.08%, Shanghai Composite (0.82%), Australia ASX +0.35% as of 04:10 ET

May 15 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities started brightly but sold off slowly over the day. Steep losses in mainland China despite PBOC holding rates steady as expected. India and Singapore were also lower. Japan gapped higher more than 1% at the bell but faded to close around the flatline. Taiwan stocks hit another record high and Australia held on to gains; Southeast Asia was mixed. Seoul and Hong Kong closed for a holiday. US futures flat, Europe higher at the open. US dollar adding to overnight losses, Australia dollar at two-month high, yuan stronger, yen stronger in late trade. Treasury yields higher at the short end, JGB yields down across tenors. Crude contracts higher on supply concerns from Canadian wildfires. Precious metals slightly higher, industrial metals higher with copper at record highs.

    • Asia markets slightly more volatile than the beginning of the week as traders looked ahead to the main catalyst of the week - US CPI data - later this evening. Momentum broadly positive at the open following a weakening in the dollar overnight and the MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan index reached fresh one-year highs early on. But most benchmarks ended off their highs with investors cognizant of the inflation data later, as well as $18B worth of fresh tariffs applied on China imports into the US and what exactly will Beijing's response be. Consensus expecting 3.4% y/y for US consumer inflation; 3.6% for core.

    • The PBOC kept its MLF rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected. China also considering asking regional governments to buy millions of unsold homes using state-backed loans to support the property sector. Tuesday evening's Australia's federal budget surprised with larger-than-expected deficits forecast for the foreseeable future but economists subsequently forecasted a more hawkish RBA. Today, Australian wage growth was slightly below forecasts; Indonesia exports were better than expected; Thailand consumer morale fell again in April.

    • Konica Minolta (4902.JP) upped its full-year guidance for revenue and operating income but also guided to no divided; stock sharply lower. Sony Group (6758.JP) revealed quarterly earnings that beat expectations and said it was "rethinking" its joint offer for Paramount. SMIC (981.HK) warned of a fierce price war developing for less advanced semiconductor chips and warned profit margins had fallen to their lowest in 15 years. JSW Energy (533148.IN), Canara Bank (532483.IN) and Indus Towers (534816.IN) are among the large-cap India stocks to be added to MSCI's Global Standard Index from the end of May.

  • Digest:

    • Beijing considers government purchases of unsold homes to ease property crisis:

      • China's State Council is considering proposals to have local governments buy millions of unsold homes, potentially largest program to date in clearing excess housing inventory and support property sector. Bloomberg cited sources saying local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts, use loans provided by state banks. Plan would involve converting homes into affordable housing. China housing inventory currently at eight-year high, sales down 47% in Jan-Apr this year; but politburo promised at end of April to explore new approaches. Also comes in same week two of country's megabanks moved to shore up capital base ahead of targeted investments, and as ministry of finance announced timetable for ultra-long CGB sales. Proposals said to be at early stages, will take months to be finalized while government still requesting feedback from local, regional authorities.

    • Biden announces tariff hikes on Chinese imports as expected:

      • Consistent with media leaks, President Biden announced a range of tariff hikes affecting some $18B of Chinese imports (Reuters). Highlight was a quadrupling of EV levies to 102.5%, though impact may be more political than practical given the small number of Chinese EV imports to US. Still, analysts have warned trade frictions could raise EV costs overall, hurting Biden's climate goals and his aim to create manufacturing jobs. Section 301 tariffs will also lift lithium-ion EV batteries and other battery components to 25% from 7.5%, photovoltaic cells to 50% from 25%. New levies will be applied to some critical minerals from zero to 25%, same for ship-to-shore cranes and some PPE equipment, while syringes and needles to rise to 50%. More tariffs will follow in 2025 and 2026 on semiconductors, as well as lithium-ion batteries not used in EVs, graphite and permanent magnets as well as rubber medical and surgical gloves. Also, White House said previously announced hikes on some steel and aluminum products to 25% will take effect this year. In response, China Commerce Ministry strongly protested the measures and vowed to take "resolute measures" without elaborating (Xinhua).

    • PBOC leaves MLF rate unchanged as expected:

      • PBOC conducted a CNY125B ($17.3B) MLF operation and left the 1-year rate unchanged at 2.50%, matching Reuters consensus. With CNY125B in maturing funds, this left liquidity impact neutral following net drains in the previous two months. However, MLF was supplemented by CNY2B injection via seven-day reverse repos. Easing expectations were reinforced by the commencement of the government's CNY1T issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds from Friday in order to offset the liquidity burden. Previously, recall that concerns about yuan weakness was cited as a stronger constraint against rate cuts. But latest monetary data showed a rare contraction in aggregate financing in April, strengthening the case for easing. PBOC's Q1 policy report was upbeat on the economic assessment, highlighting solid Q1 GDP growth and recent positive inflation. Recall that economists had raised concerns that stronger than expected Q1 GDP growth would prompt policy complacency, reducing the prospects for forceful stimulus. Yet, monthly activity data showed growth momentum tailed significantly at the end of the quarter, shifting attention to Q2.

    • Australian federal budget facing scrutiny over future deficit path:

      • Australian federal budget confirmed an expected A$9.3B ($6.1B) budget surplus in the year through June, though was overshadowed by large deficits projected in the foreseeable future. Budget forecast to swing back to an A$28.3B deficit, or 1% of GDP, in FY24-25, peaking at A$42.8B in FY25-26 and falling back to the mid-A$20B range thereafter. Net debt seen remaining in the low-20% of GDP range from next FY. Underlying economic forecasts estimate GDP growth of 1.75% in FY23-24, 2.0% in FY24-25 and 2.25% in FY25-26. Notable attention on CPI inflation forecasts of 3.5%, 2.75% and 2.75% in respective years. Compares with latest RBA projections of 3.8%, 3.2% and 2.6%. Government cost of living measures expected to reduce inflation by 0.5 ppt in 2024-25 and cited Treasury estimates that inflation could return to target band by 2024-end, slightly earlier than projections in the mid-year update. Takeaways broadly balked at the size of projected deficits, particularly in 2025, which was more than double economists' estimates (Bloomberg). Fiscal expansion seen having hawkish implications for RBA policy (Bloomberg).

    • China property whitelist hits stumbling blocks:

      • Reuters discussed the lack of traction from the property whitelist meant to provide a credit lifeline for development projects. Four months after its launch, interviews with bankers and developers revealed new funding remains at a drip-feed pace, particularly in proportion to the vast stock of unfinished housing, reflecting deep-seated caution about the outlook for the residential property market. Banks have been reluctant to heed repeated urges to bolster credit to the real estate sector given the risks of more bad loans. Sources indicated new loans were only approved since late March, countering expectations of immediate financing support after the whitelist program was launched earlier this year. Some thoughts lack of progress reflects the screening process limiting the number of viable projects. Article cited local media reports noting bank approvals for some $72B in loans for 2,100 housing projects by March-end, but developers and bankers said many of these approvals restarted existing loans, rather than providing new credit. Estimates vary widely, but analysts concurred on tens of millions of uncompleted apartments across China.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +13.6% 3099.JP (Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings): reports FY net income attributable ¥55.58B vs FactSet ¥42.06B; launches ¥15B buyback

      • +8.2% 6758.JP (Sony): reports Q4 net income attributable ¥189.0B vs StreetAccount ¥153.96B; launches up-to-¥250.0B buyback; reportedly reconsidering bid for Paramount Global

      • +5.4% 3661.TT (Alchip Technologies): Amazon participates in private placement of 225K shares at NT$2382/share

      • +5.3% 2502.JP (Asahi Group Holdings): reports Q1 net income attributable ¥24.51B vs FactSet ¥19.08B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.0% 4902.JP (Konica Minolta): guides no dividend for next FY

      • -8.9% 6361.JP (Ebara Corp): not included in MSCI Japan Standard Index in latest review, failing expectations

      • -7.6% 2356.TT (Inventec): reports Q1 EPS NT$0.30 vs FactSet NT$0.44

      • -5.3% 2603.TT (Evergreen Marine): reports Q1 EPS NT$8.14 vs FactSet NT$9.37

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Australia Q1

        • Wage price index +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.9% and revised +1.0% in prior quarter

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 29.67 or +0.08% to 38385.73

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: (25.87) or (0.82%) to 3119.90

      • Shenzhen Composite: (13.42) or (0.76%) to 1759.58

      • ASX200: 26.90 or +0.35% to 7753.70

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: (165.60) or (0.23%) to 72939.01

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.30) or (0.19%) to 156.1060

      • $-KRW: (8.41) or (0.62%) to 1357.2000

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.26% to 0.6642

      • $-INR: +0.00 or +0.00% to 83.4895

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.15%) to 7.2228

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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