May 23 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian equities closed mixed Thursday as tech stocks advanced but China markets corrected further. Tech dominated exchanges in South Korea and Japan closed higher while Taiwan's Taiex reached a fresh record; gains in several Southeast Asia bourses too. Australia dragged lower by mining stocks. Steep losses in Hong Kong, mainland China boards also lower. India steady at three-week highs. US futures point to a bright open, Europe opened higher. US dollar flat, NZD stronger again, yen weakened, yuan steady despite lowest mid-point setting since January. Treasury yields turning negative. Crude oil, industrial and precious metals all lower.
Asia tech shares taking their cue from Nvidia's earnings beat and dividend boost, with NVDA stock surging around 6% after hours in New York. South Korea chip stocks outperformed as the government said it is to spend $19B to incentivize semiconductor producers. Other US tech shares up in read through while AI-related stocks leading gainers in various Asia bourses. Elsewhere, BHP dragged on mining stocks in Australia after Anglo American left the door open for a final offer to be made. Hong Kong and mainland China stocks lower in a broad decline as doubts grew over the impact of Beijing's latest housing support measures; Alibaba a notable underperformer late on following reports of a possible convertible bond issue.
The BOK left policy rate unchanged as expected and noted upside to inflation risks. RBNZ Governor Orr said another rate hike may be needed inflation expectations begin to move higher. Japan flash PMI showed manufacturing returned to expansion for first time in a year. Singapore final Q1 GDP unchanged from previous estimate but a government agency also warned on exports; April inflation dipped to 2.5-year low. New Zealand Q1 retail sales unexpectedly expanded, though base period effects at play.
Alibaba (9988.HK) is mulling the sale of $5B in convertible bonds to follow the $1.75B offering from JD.com (9618.HK) earlier this week. China Evergrande NEV (708.HK) is being pursued by local governments to repay CNY1.9B ($262M) in subsidies after its failure to start mass production of its car. Anglo American (AAL.LN) has given BHP Group (BHP.AU) a further seven days to come up with a final offer after rejecting a third £38.6B offer. Walt Disney has agreed to sell its 29.8% stake in Tata Play to Tata Group, thwarting interest from Reliance Industries (500325.IN). Singtel (Z74.SP) sunk to a S$1.3B H2 loss on Optus impairments; Australian government said it would take Singtel to court over 2022's cyber attack. Singapore Airlines (C6L.SP) said it will thoroughly investigate the severe air turbulence in wake of Wednesday's incident over Myanmar in which one person died.
Digest:
Asian semiconductor stocks rally as Nvidia's results brighten industry outlook:
Asian semiconductor stocks seeing widespread gains in Asian trade Thursday, particularly suppliers to NVDA following latter's strong earnings beat and raise. Bloomberg Asia Pacific Semiconductors Index rallied to highest in more than three years. Nvidia's results reinforced AI secular growth theme that has delivered strong gains for major tech companies so far in 2024. Few other developments making headlines today. Taiwan Semiconductor (2330.TT) gave an upbeat outlook for semiconductor industry, saying it expects growth of more than 10% excluding memory chips (Reuters). South Korean government unveiled $19B package (KRW26T) to support domestic semiconductor industry (Bloomberg), more than double what Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok announced just over a week ago (Bloomberg). Big semiconductor firms have been prominent beneficiaries of grants, subsidies and other financial incentives by global governments to bolster their domestic chip industries amid supply chain risks stemming from US-China tensions over Taiwan (Bloomberg).
Bank of Korea holds policy rate steady at 3.5%, raises FY growth estimate:
South Korea central bank kept its benchmark 7D repo rate steady at 3.5% for 11th consecutive meeting Thursday, as widely expected. Raised FY24 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.1% on back of robust exports, kept headline inflation estimate unchanged at 2.6% versus its FY 2.0% target. Governor Rhee said inflation path subject to uncertainties with upside risks increasing related to oil price, foreign exchange; bank to monitor risks to financial stability, household debt growth, monetary policy differentiation in major economies. Added consumption recovery was modest and bank likely to keep restrictive policy stance for sufficient period, chance of policy rate increase "limited". Vote to hold was unanimous although one member said path to rate cut should open in next three months. Economists continue to forecast rate cuts only in Q4 following higher-than-expected Q1 GDP growth, strong export growth persistent inflation (Yonhap).
RBNZ Governor Orr says will only hike rates again if inflation expectations begin to rise:
RBNZ Governor Orr continues post-meeting media appearances, telling Bloomberg another rate hike would only be meaningful if inflation expectations begin to rise. RBNZ surprised with a hawkish hold on Wednesday after Committee revealed they discussed a rate hike and kept door open to further tightening depending on inflation developments. Orr reiterated current rate of inflation the main concern given its influence on inflation expectations, though stressed central bank has patience and will not respond to single data points. Repeated RBNZ remains confident inflation will return to 1-3% target band and pointed out sticky prices already baked into central bank's forecast. Economists acknowledged hawkish nature of May policy statement, but retained expectations next rate move will be down than up. Some viewed rate hike threat as jawboning exercise after markets had moved to price in two rate cuts in 2024. Noted New Zealand's economy already under pressure while RBNZ's forecasts for continued softness in labor market, consumption and residential investment heightened risk of policy mistake.
Singapore keeps FY GDP outlook but warns over potential export dip:
Singapore government Thursday maintained FY economic growth forecast at 1-3%, confirmed Q1 growth at 2.7% y/y following earlier flash estimate. Ministry of Trade and Industry expects economy to grow on improving US growth, stronger-than-anticipated expansion in China; anticipating higher tourism spend that will give added support for insurance, financial sectors. Warned downside risks remain over geopolitical tensions, and emerging market monetary policy desynchronization which was leading to capital flow, currency volatility (BusinessTimes). Separately Thursday, Enterprise SG said Q1 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 3.4% y/y primarily on base effects, volatile pharma exports. Agency warned worse-than-forecast Q1 performance meant FY NODX now likely at lower range of 4-6% forecast. Added expects to see H2 recovery in electronics demand from consumer devices, AI servers, normalization of inventory level (BusinessTimes). April inflation data also published Thursday showed Singapore inflation at 2.5-year low 2.7% y/y.
JGBs steady after BOJ purchase operation goes undersubscribed:
Nikkei reported BOJ's JGB purchase operation for JPY375.0B ($2.4B) targeting 1y~3y zone attracted JPY356.4B in bids, marking the first undersubscribed auction since the introduction of unconventional easing policies in April 2013. On the surface, results reflected trader reluctance to sell to BOJ with some thoughts yield was unattractive. But headlines added to reasons for lower central bank bond buying, feeding into ongoing QT speculation. Article noted short-end purchases can be reduced by up to JPY300B before breaching the lower bound of the guidance range. Recall that attention on this theme was triggered at an operation earlier this month when BOJ trimmed the size for the first time since the March policy changes, which surprised markets given BOJ had guided purchase amounts would remain roughly the same at a JPY6T monthly pace for the time being. Speculation of successive reductions in subsequent operations were unrealized, though JGB market saw the downsizing as a meaningful signal and now eyeing the possibility of a formal tweak in purchases plans at the June or July MPM.
Notable Gainers:
+1.8% 1024.HK (Kuaishou Technology): reports Q1 revenue CNY29.41B vs FactSet CNY28.99B, adjusted EBITDA CNY5.98B vs FactSet CNY5.04B
+1.3% 6752.JP (Panasonic): reportedly to sell large projector business for estimated ~¥80B (~$510M)
+1.2% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): South Korea reportedly introduces KRW26T support package for chip industry
+1.1% 500325.IN (Reliance Industries): Walt Disney reportedly said to agree to sell 29.8% stake in Tata Play to Tata Group
+0.4% Z74.SP (Singtel): reports FY underlying NPAT SG$2.26B vs FactSet SG$2.28B
+0.1% 3038.JP (Kobe Bussan): reports April net sales ¥45.17B, +9.3% y/y
Notable Decliners:
-12.4% 9698.HK (GDS Holdings): reports Q1 revenue CNY2.63B vs StreetAccount CNY2.66B
-2.3% 4578.JP (Otsuka Holdings): to terminate development of AVP-786 for treatment of patients with agitation associated with dementia due to Alzheimer's disease; revises H1 guidance due to impairment loss; guides H1 operating profit ¥95.00B vs prior ¥168.00B
Data:
Economic:
Japan
April final services PMI 54.3 vs preliminary 54.6 and 54.1 in prior month
Composite PMI 52.3 vs preliminary 52.6 and 51.7 in prior month
New Zealand
Q1 retail sales +0.5% q/q vs consensus (0.3%) and revised (1.8%) in Q4
Singapore
Final Q1 GDP +2.7% y/y vs preliminary +2.7% and +2.2% in prior quarter
GDP +0.1% q/q vs preliminary +0.1% and revised +1.1% in prior quarter
April CPI +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and +2.7% in prior month
CPI +0.1% m/m vs (0.1%) in prior month
Core inflation +3.1% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and +3.1% in prior month
India May
Flash manufacturing PMI 58.4 vs 58.8 in prior month (10:30 IT)
Services PMI 61.4 vs 60.8 in prior month
Composite PMI 61.7 vs 61.5 in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 486.12 or +1.26% to 39103.22
Hang Seng: (326.89) or (1.70%) to 18868.71
Shanghai Composite: (42.15) or (1.33%) to 3116.39
Shenzhen Composite: (30.63) or (1.72%) to 1754.06
ASX200: (36.30) or (0.46%) to 7811.80
KOSPI: (1.65) or (0.06%) to 2721.81
SENSEX: 763.30 or +1.03% to 74984.36
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.04) or (0.03%) to 156.7540
$-KRW: (3.26) or (0.24%) to 1362.6400
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.05% to 0.6621
$-INR: (0.11) or (0.14%) to 83.2582
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.03% to 7.2437
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