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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.77%), Hang Seng (1.83%), Shanghai Composite +0.05% as of 04:10 ET

May 29 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended firmly lower Wednesday despite a positive end to Wall Street's session. South Korea, Taiwan and Australia saw the sharpest losses with Hong Kong also substantially lower; MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan index down almost 1.5% on the day. Nikkei and Topix also lower despite bright openings. India down on more election jitters, Southeast Asia all lower. Mainland China bucked the trend with Shenzhen and Shanghai boards higher as several large-cap names gained. US futures lower, Europe opened with losses. US dollar flat, Asia currencies little changed although the yuan weakened another few points to six-month lows. Treasury yields higher; JGB 10Y yield at 1.08%, its highest since 2011. Precious metals flat, industrial metals mixed. Crude oil futures higher with WTI and Brent both now above $80 per dollar after another Red Sea ship attack and ahead of OPEC's meeting.

    • Asia equities sold off abruptly over the day with any early strength quickly erased. The cause of the drop was systemic: a rise in Treasury yields overnight led to a higher US dollar, pressure on Asia currencies, and increased headwinds for the region's stocks Wednesday. Growth sectors in Hong Kong, Seoul and Taipei notably affected; the Hang Seng tech index now on the brink of a technical correction after this week's sell down. The yen remains stagnant around the 157 mark with 158 widely seen as the new BOJ red line before an intervention is considered although, with JGB yields at 13-year highs, more talk today the BOJ will respond with a rate hike over direct intervention.

    • In macro developments, Australian monthly CPI unexpectedly rose, underlining sticky domestic inflation. Markets now pricing out any RBA rate cut until mid-2025 at the earliest. Australian Q1 construction work activity unexpectedly shrank, boding negative for GDP. New Zealand business confidence weakened to lowest since Oct-2023. Vietnam industrial output and retails sales grew in May but inflation hit a 16-month high.

    • Lenovo (992.HK) is to issue $2B in convertible bonds to a Saudi wealth fund. Paytm (One 97 Communications, 543396.IN) denied it was in talks to sell a stake in the company to Adani Group. Reliance Industries (500325.IN) has signed a one-year deal with Russia's Rosneft to pay for oil shipments using rubles. A Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) labor union with 28K members is planning for its first ever strike over wages. BHP Group (BHP.AU) says it wants another extension before it can reach an agreement with Anglo American (AAL.LN) on its takeover offer. A SingTel (Z74.SP) and KKR consortium has emerged as a frontrunner to acquire a $1B for an up-to 20% stake in Asia-based data center STT GDC.

  • Digest:

    • BOJ's Adachi says weak yen might warrant policy adjustment, but uncertainties remain high:

      • In a speech, board member Adachi began with an explanation of how yen depreciation might warrant a policy response if trend inflation is impacted. Added that import prices have turned positive from February, and a typical 6~9 lead time would translate to a possible rebound in inflation from the summer to autumn. Furthermore, 'sticky' inflation component stands to be elevated by this year's shunto wage hikes around the same time frame. However, Adachi stressed that uncertainties remain high, and risks are symmetric, auguring for a cautious approach. Prolonged yen weakness would add to inflation, posing the risk of inflation running above the 2% target and may warrant faster policy adjustments. On the other hand, noted excessive pace of adjustments would also risk disrupting the economic recovery. As a tail risk, added unexpected external shocks in global financial markets would lead to a breakdown in the underlying conditions for stable and sustainable inflation. Overall, Adachi reaffirmed BOJ needs to maintain accommodative conditions for the time being. Also noted he was mindful of the risk of policy discontinuity leading to market disruptions when voting in support for the March decisions, emphasizing preference for gradual adjustments to JGB purchases.

    • IMF raises China growth forecast for 2024 and 2025:

      • IMF has upgraded forecast for China's economy growth by 0.4 ppt to 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, compared with April WEO projections, driven by strong Q1 GDP data and recent policy measures, as Beijing has been ramping up stimulus efforts to aid economy grappling with deep property slump. The organization also expects growth to decelerate to 3.3% by 2029 due to aging and slower productivity growth. IMF reiterated calls for structural reforms and rebalancing economy towards consumption by strengthening social safety net, liberalizing services sector and scaling back distortive supply side policies that support manufacturing sectors. Comments came amid growing tensions between China and west that Beijing's industrial policies are creating overcapacity in EVs and renewable energy. It sees downside risks in greater- or longer-than-expected property sector adjustment and welcomes recent rescue measures, adding priority should be to protect buyers of pre-sold unfinished homes and accelerate completion of those houses, paving way for resolving insolvent developers.

    • Australian monthly inflation unexpectedly rises:

      • Australian monthly inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% y/y in April from 3.5% in March, versus expectations of a downtick to 3.4%. Marked highest inflation print since Nov-2023 (which was also last month that inflation fell on y/y basis). Main drivers of April's increase were fruit and vegetables, clothing and footwear, medical costs, health insurance premiums, and international travel. Rental inflation eased, albeit due in part to government subsidy. State-based subsidies also contributed to lager fall in electricity prices. Excluding volatile items and holiday travel, CPI inflation was unchanged at 4.1%. While monthly CPI series is viewed as less comprehensive inflation measure than quarterly series, April's result nonetheless ties into broader stickiness dynamic that RBA emphasized in May policy statement. Following April's CPI print, markets pushed out expected timing of first RBA rate cut to mid-2025 while odds of a rate hike in Sep-2024 rose to 26% from 20% (Bloomberg).

    • China property support policies seen providing modest boost to GDP:

      • Narrow Bloomberg poll showed seven out of 12 economists estimated the property market rescue package unveiled 17-May would lift 2024 GDP by between 0.1 and 0.3 ppt. But another four respondents expected less than 0.1 ppt while one saw no impact. Median GDP growth forecast edged up to 4.9%. Cited thoughts that funding on offer was only a fraction of what is needed to fill the demand gap but measures provided hopes of more to come. Economists have also noted some time will be needed to work through the sheer amount of existing housing inventories. Ongoing finessing of rate outlook now sees a 25 bp RRR cut by June-end but with no reduction to the 1-year MLF rate before Q3 compared to prior predictions of a 10 bp cut by June-end. CPI inflation projected to rise 0.7% this year, up marginally from prior 0.6%. Mainland press highlighted the adoption of easing home-buying restrictions in major capital cities with Guangzhou, Shenzhen Tuesday following Shanghai announcements Monday (Xinhua).

    • Global bond yields back up as markets reassess rate cut prospects:

      • Bond markets under pressure with Treasury 2Y and 10Y yields back around highest levels in a month. Recent yield backup has coincided with Fedspeak that has consistently pushed higher-for-longer messaging on rates. While softer US April CPI tempered some concerns over disinflation trajectory, better-than-expected economic activity and sentiment data has contributed to hawkish repricing that sees markets price in just one Fed rate cut in 2024. Supply concerns another factor following soft Treasury auctions on Tuesday. Other sovereign yields have also risen notably. JGB 10Y yield hit highest since 2011 as BOJ remarks on yen and inflation tie into speculation of an earlier rate hike. Australian 10Y yield near one-month high as latest upside inflation surprise prompts markets to delay expected RBA rate cut to mid-2025 at earliest. European yields have climbed as debate shifts from likely June rate cut to pace of easing following reacceleration of eurozone inflation. UK Gilt yields also up sharply as markets delayed expected BOE rate cut beyond June after April CPI print revealed stickiness in underlying inflation.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +2.3% 4021.JP (Nissan Chemical): expands buyback programme; to repurchase up to 2.5M shares for up to ¥10B

      • +0.9% Z74.SP (Singtel): Singtel-KKR consortium emerges as frontrunner to acquire up to 20% stake in STT Telemedia Global Data Centres worth $1B (SG$1.35B)

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -44.3% 9966.HK (Alphamab Oncology): overall survival result in phase III clinical trial of KN046 misses preset statistical endpoint

      • -4.5% 6503.JP (Mitsubishi Electric): updates on FY25 medium-term management plan; FY25 targets include revenue no less than ¥5T

      • -3.6% 7011.JP (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries): issues FY24-26 medium-term business plan

      • -2.1% 3407.JP (Asahi Kasei): to acquire Calliditas Therapeutics for SEK11.8B (¥174B) in cash

      • -1.5% 992.HK (Lenovo Group): Lenovo enters strategic collaboration, bond subscription deal with Saudi sovereign fund unit Alat

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Australia

        • April CPI +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and +3.5% in March

        • Q1 construction work done (2.9%) q/q vs consensus +0.5% and +0.7% in Q4

      • New Zealand May

        • ANZ Business Confidence +11.2 vs +14.9 in April

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (298.50) or (0.77%) to 38556.87

      • Hang Seng: (344.15) or (1.83%) to 18477.01

      • Shanghai Composite: 1.45 or +0.05% to 3111.02

      • Shenzhen Composite: 5.22 or +0.30% to 1734.14

      • ASX200: (101.10) or (1.30%) to 7665.60

      • KOSPI: (45.55) or (1.67%) to 2677.30

      • SENSEX: (409.73) or (0.55%) to 74760.73

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.02 or +0.01% to 157.1310

      • $-KRW: +2.03 or +0.15% to 1365.4100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.02% to 0.6653

      • $-INR: +0.11 or +0.13% to 83.3119

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.04% to 7.2479

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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