May 30 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for positive start to Friday trade. Futures pointing to opening gains in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. US contracts extending losses afterhours following reports about US AI chip export curbs to Middle East. Australian and New Zealand bonds rally following earlier Treasury curve bull flattening. FX markets steady following broad dollar pullback in wake of soft US growth data. Copper fell towards three-week low. Oil notably lower for a second session. Bitcoin off overnight highs.
On macro front, China PMIs forecast to show little change in May manufacturing growth while non-manufacturing growth forecast to have risen. Concerns over domestic demand remain after April PMI sub-indicators revealed drag from weaker new orders. April activity indicators also mixed with industrial production better but retail sales and fixed asset investment softer. Tokyo core inflation rose in-line with forecasts while ex-food and energy measure softened.
US PCE index forecast to show core measure falling to lowest since Mar-2021 on a /y basis. Previews said risk could be to downside on weaker CPI/PPI components that flow through to PCE. Some economists say Fed will likely need core prints in 0.2-0.3% m/m range for several months to keep September cut in play. Economists have pushed back rate cut calls to September while markets pricing in 1-2 cut this year.
Indian election another focus, with exit polls published Saturday evening before vote counting begins Monday and formal results announced 4-Jun. Low voter turnout has raised doubts about strength of likely BJP election win, and reports have highlighted how traders positioning for near-term market volatility if seat total falls below 300, which may threaten PM Modi's ability to user in major economic reforms. However, analysts see any volatility proving short-lived, with bullish narrative around economy still largely intact.
Pre-open Company News:
UK Apr car manufacturing (7.0%) y/y to 61,820 units -- SMMT
2379.TT -- Realtek Semiconductor CEO Chiu Sun-Chien to step down due to role adjustment; Huang Yung-Fang appointed replacement effective 30-May
539437.IN -- IDFC First Bank approves placement of 396.9M shares at INR80.63/share
601168.CH -- Western Mining initiated buy at TF Securities (timing uncertain)
524208.IN -- AARTI Industries appoints Suyog Kotech as new CEO, effective 17-Jun
2308.TT -- Delta Electronics elects CEO Cheng Ping as chairman to replace Hai Ying-chun, effective today
8869.MK -- Press Metal Aluminium Holdings reports Q1 EPS 5.0sen vs year-ago 3.4sen
600000.CH -- Shanghai Pudong Development Bank initiated neutral at Guosen Securities (timing uncertain)
MAXN -- Maxeon Solar Technologies reports Q1 EPS ($1.59) vs FactSet ($1.06) [3 est, ($1.16)-(0.88)]
1658.HK -- Postal Savings Bank of China proposes to distribute up to 30% of H1 net income attributable as interim dividend
2126.HK -- JW (Cayman) Therapeutics presents preliminary clinical data on relmacabtagene autoleucel injection in adults with active systemic lupus erythematosus in China at EULAR 2024
1155.MK -- Malayan Banking sets science-based emissions reduction targets for its palm oil, power portfolios
1208.HK -- Comor Holdings to pick up 45% stake in MMG's Khoemacau Mine JV for up to $500.0M
2593.JP -- ITO EN to conduct up to 1.0M-share buyback for up to ¥4.0B from 4-Jun to 28-Jun
2367.HK -- Giant Biogene Holding initiated buy at Guosen Securities (timing uncertain)
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
09:30 CST: CFLP PMI Manufacturing; consensus 50.4
09:30 CST: CFLP Non Manufacturing PMI; consensus 51.3
09:30 CST: CFLP Services PMI; consensus
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Industrial Production SA M/M (Preliminary); consensus (0.2%)
08:50 JST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y (Preliminary); consensus +1.4%
14:00 JST: Housing Starts NSA Y/Y; consensus (0.2%)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Private Sector Credit M/M; consensus +0.4%
Earnings:
Champion Iron (CIA.AU)
India:
Economic:
05:30 IST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +7.3%
Taiwan:
Economic:
16:00 TST: GDP NSA Y/Y (Final); consensus +6.5%
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 24): ($1.40) or (0.06%) to $2365.10
WTI Crude (Jul 24): ($0.15) or (0.19%) to $77.76
$-¥: (0.74) or (0.47%) to 156.9020
$-KRW: +2.09 or +0.15% to 1373.5700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.26% to 0.6627
$-INR: (0.06) or (0.07%) to 83.3209
$-CNY: (0.05) or (0.63%) to 7.2032
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