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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.66% to 8193.51, DAX +0.94% to 18407.22, CAC40 +0.86% to 7573.55, STOXX 600 +0.91% to 516.42

Jul 10 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed higher. Spain +1.6% and Portugal +1.4% lead outperformers, whilst Greece (0.5%) bucks the higher trend and lead underperformers.

    • Sentiment improving as investors take encouragement from yesterday's remarks from Fed Chair Powell, which kept the possibility of a September rate cut in play. Repeated more good data would strengthen confidence on inflation trajectory. Emphasized two-sided risks to economy amid signs of "considerable" labor market cooling.

    • Limited updates from Europe. Survey Indeed Hiring Lab showed wages in UK rising almost twice the rate of Eurozone in year to June. Update from ICAEW showed UK business confidence the highest since Q1 2022. BoE chief economist Pill to speak later following hawkish remarks from MPC Haskel on Monday.

    • In France, political parties continue to jockey for position in the process to form a government. Former PM Phillipe called for parties of the center and center-right to join forces. Highlighted that right when combined with Macron's group has ~220 seats versus left bloc with 182 seats. There is no defined deadline to form government. Elsewhere, senior ECB official warned on risks from shadow banking.

    • From a macro calendar perspective, Denmark and Norway released inflation data for June. Istat released latest note on Italian economy. Italy Industrial Production ahead of expectations in May +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior (1.0%).

    • On the corporate front, out of Germany, Porsche (PAH3.GR) guides 2024 consolidated profit after tax €3.5-5.5B vs prior guidance €3.8-5.8B; Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.gr) reported preliminary Q2 EBIT €0.4B vs FactSet €636.0M; in the UK, JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN) Q4 trading update showed LFL Sales +5.8% y/y in 10 weeks to 7-Jul, continues to expect profits in the current financial year to be in line with market expectations. Barratt Developments (BDEV.LN) expects adjusted PBT to be slightly ahead of previous expectations; anticipates FY25 total home completions in range of 13,000-13,500 while Direct Line Group (DLG.LN) reiterates target of at least £100M of gross run-rate cost savings by exit 2025. In the Nordics, Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO) is out with Q2 EPS NOK6.79 vs FactSet NOK5.63.

    • In other corporate developments, Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) last night issued an ad hoc statement saying it will restructure high cost Brussels Audi facility. It expects €1.7B in additional restructuring charges/expenses for 2024, most of which is for the Brussels plant manufacturing the Audi Q8 e-tron, ~3,000 employees.

    • In M&A, OK Diario reported, citing sources close to the matter, that the Grifols family and Brookfield differ on the terms of the joint takeover bid for Grifols (GRF.SM). Elsewhere, Enagas (ENG.SM) decided to sell its stake in Tallgrass Energy for $1.1B.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 8-Jul to 12-Jul attached) DNB Bank (DNB.NO), Europris (EPR.NO), Kitron (KIT.NO), Akastor (AKAST.NO), Tryg (TRYG.DC), Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Sudzucker (SZU.GR), Heidelberg Pharma (HPHA.GR), AGRANA Beteiligungs (AGR.AV), Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Hays (HAS.LN), John Wood Group (WG.LN), Trustpilot (TRST.LN) and Renewi (RWI.LN) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include UK May industrial/manufacturing production, trade balance, construction output, Jun house price balance - RICS, monthly GDP tracker - NIESR, Germany Jun final CPI, Sweden Jun unemployment rate, Ireland Jun CPI.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Real Estate +2.07%, Retail +1.45%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +1.36%, Telecom +1.25%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.13%, Utilities +1.13%, Consumer Products and Services +1.10%, Autos & Parts +1.04%, Technology +1.02%, Financial Svcs +0.99%, Health Care +0.97%, Banks +0.93%, Insurance +0.92%,

      • Underperformers:

        • Chemicals (0.21%), Media (0.20%), Energy+0.22%, Basic Resources +0.47%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.62%, Construct & Mtls +0.62%,

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Geopolitics

        • Kremlin says there were no disagreements between Putin and Modi at Moscow meeting - Reuters

        • F-16 jets being sent to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands, Blinken says - Reuters

        • Biden should delay candidacy decision until after Nato, Pelosi - BBC

        • NATO releases revised AI strategy - release

      • EU

        • Top ECB official sounds alarm on rising risks from shadow banking - FT

        • EU Risks Inflation Pressure If Deforestation Law Takes Effect - Bloomberg

      • UK

        • Traders cut odds on summer interest rate cut amid 'uncomfortable' inflation - The Telegraph

        • Private school tax raid and attack on non-doms hammer high-end property sales - The Telegraph

        • Cleverly warns Tories against 'infighting and finger pointing' as leadership race escalates - The Guardian

        • Starmer and Biden to meet for first time on US visit - BBC

        • Post-Brexit security pact with EU 'will complement' NATO, Starmer says - Politico

      • France

        • Emmanuel Macron's centrists off to rocky start in coalition talks - FT

      • Germany

        • Eight billion euros wanted - experts warn against budget tricks - Handelsblatt

        • Germany Saw 15% Increase in Startups During First Half - Bloomberg

        • German Government representatives and mobile carriers agree on 5G regulation on Huawei - Sueddeutsche Zeitung

      • Poland

        • Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says - Reuters

        • Polish Policymakers Cast Doubt on Central Bank Chief's 2026 Bet - Bloomberg

    • Company news:

      • Trading Higher:

        • +11.1% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK993.00, +99.00) -- Q2 earnings

        • +10.4% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £1.73, +0.16) -- Q3 trading update

        • +8.5% GYM.LN (Gym Group £1.33, +0.10) -- H1 trading update

        • +7.9% ALCJ.FP (Crossject €1.92, +0.14) -- €6.9M French Gov. financing

        • +7.1% TPK.LN (Travis Perkins £8.58, +0.57) -- new CEO and Chair

        • +6.3% ENG.SM (Enagas €13.55, +0.80) -- sells its stake in Tallgrass Energy for $1.1B; Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade

        • +5.5% HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd €161.80, +8.50) -- prelim. Q2 earnings

        • +5.2% JM.SS (JM SEK217.00, +10.80) -- Q2 earnings

        • +3.5% AVIO.IM (Avio €13.00, +0.44) -- maiden flight of its Ariane 6 launcher has successfully completed

        • +3.5% SXS.LN (Spectris £29.92, +1.00) -- BofA upgrade

        • +2.9% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £1.78, +0.05) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade

        • +2.7% JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins €19.30, +0.51) -- UBS upgrade

        • +2.4% COLO.B.DC (Coloplast DKK871.20, +20.80) -- Danske Bank upgrade

      • Trading Lower:

        • -10.8% IPX.LN (Impax Asset Management Group £3.72, -0.45) -- to acquire European assets of SKY Harbor Capital Management, LLC

        • -8.2% BULTEN.SS (Bulten SEK78.00, -7.00) -- Q2 earnings

        • -5.9% ADOC.FP (Adocia €6.80, -0.43) -- Tonghua Dongbao discontinues one of the two partnership programs, BioChaperone Combo

        • -5.6% HSW.LN (Hostelworld Group £1.53, -0.09) -- H1 trading update

        • -5.3% PIA.IM (Piaggio & C €2.70, -0.15) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade

        • -4.9% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK22.66, -1.16) -- Q2 earnings

        • -4.2% LNDR.IM (Landi Renzo €0.25, -0.01) -- reschedules medium-and-long-term financing agreements

        • -2.8% AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn SEK316.40, -9.20) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade

        • -2.0% SLIGR.NA (Sligro Food Group €12.64, -0.26) -- Oddo downgrade

        • -1.9% KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik SEK89.50, -1.70) -- Carnegie Securities downgrade

  • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

    • Earnings:

      • DACHs: Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Sudzucker (SZU.GR), Heidelberg Pharma (HPHA.GR), AGRANA Beteiligungs (AGR.AV)

      • France: Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP)

      • Nordics: DNB Bank (DNB.NO), Europris (EPR.NO), Kitron (KIT.NO), Akastor (AKAST.NO), Tryg (TRYG.DC), BONESUPPORT (BONEX.SS), Bufab (BUFAB.SS), Logistea (LOGI.B.SS), Alligator Bioscience (ATORX.SS), Q-linea (QLINEA.SS)

      • UK: Jet2 (JET2.LN), Ilika (IKA.LN)

    • Trading Update: Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Hays (HAS.LN), John Wood Group (WG.LN), Trustpilot (TRST.LN), Renewi (RWI.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN), Kalray (ALKAL.FP), Ekinops (EKI.FP), Thermador Groupe (THEP.FP)

    • CMD/events: Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW)

    • Traffic: Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)

Data:

  • Economics:

    • Netherlands May Manufacturing Production (0.4%) m/m vs consensus (0.7%) and prior +0.4%

    • Jun CPI

      • Denmark +1.8% y/y vs prior +2.2%; 0.0% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior 0.0%

      • Portugal +2.8% y/y vs preliminary +2.8%

    • May Industrial Production

      • Italy (3.3%) y/y vs consensus (2.1%) and prior revised (3.0%) from (2.9%); +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior (1.0%)

      • Greece +6.7% y/y vs consensus +12.7% and prior revised +11.7% from +10.8%

    • Norway

      • Jun CPI +2.6% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +3.0%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior (0.1%)

      • Jun PPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +4.8% and prior +3.2%

  • Markets:

    • WTI Crude (Aug 24): +$0.93 or +1.14% to $82.34

    • €-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0826

    • £-$ +0.0057 or +0.45% to 1.2844

    • €-£ (0.0033) to 0.8426

    • S&P 500 +0.36%

    • Performance year-to-date

      • FTSE 100: +5.95%

      • DAX: +9.88%

      • CAC: +0.40%

      • MIB: +13.03%

      • Stoxx 600: +7.81%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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