Sep 03 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets indicated to open in positive territory, whilst Asian equities mixed in quiet Tuesday trade. Hang Seng off worst levels with property developers rebounding. Nikkei erased initial gain while shares in Australia, Korea and Taiwan picking up losses. S&P 500 futures gravitating lower.
Negative seasonality cited as risk factor for equities with September typically one of the worst months of the year for equities. Strategists caution expected Fed rate cut in September no panacea for equities and may be catalyst for down leg. JP Morgan pointed to unattractive sentiment and positioning indicators, along with elevated political and geopolitical uncertainty.
Markets remain in waiting mode for US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Current forecast is for a pickup in headline employment and downtick in jobless rate. Data crucial in shaping 25 vs 50 bp September Fed rate cut debate with markets currently pricing in ~25% chance of 50 bp move this month. Fed still seen implementing ~100 bp of easing in final three meetings of the year (implying 50 bp cut in one meeting).
On today's agenda in Europe, Finland's government will discuss the draft budget in its budget session (through Wed). In UK, there's MP's questions on HM Treasury at 11:30BST, followed by Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill continuing its progress. EU's Wojciechowski participates in MED9 Agricultural Ministerial Meeting on 'The Threat of Drought to the Primary Sector in the Mediterranean Member States. Eastern Economic Forum in Russia (through Fri).
In central banks, ECB SSM and the EBA jointly organised conf (through Wed), ECB's Buch speaks at 14:00CET, BOE's Breeden moderates a panel at 14:45, af Jochnick panellist at 16:00. Bundesbank's Nagel moderator of discussion at 18:45CET at IFK. Meanwhile, Global Green Hydrogen Summit in Africa and FTSE Russell final determination on UK index changes after the close.
Macro data due include: Switzerland Q2 final GDP, Aug CPI, Spain Aug unemployment change and UK Aug retail sales monitor - BRC
In light corporate newsflow, out of DACHs, dormakaba Holding (DOKA.SW), Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), and Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW) reported FY/H1 earnings. In France, Exosens (EXENS.FP) issued H1 earnings and confirmed it's fully on track to deliver 2024 guidance. Also, Ashtead (AHT.LN), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT.LN), Nokia (NOKIA.FH), and Sandoz (SDZ.SW) are due to update investors with their latest numbers.
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM) -- completes sale of Passive Optical Components assets to Focuslight Technologies
DOKA.SW (dormakaba Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF82.2M vs consensus CHF59.9M
SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF632M vs consensus CHF599M; "Swiss Life 2024" well on track
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF508M vs consensus CHF521M
EXENS.FP (Exosens) -- reports H1 net income excl PPA amortization €8.7M vs guidance 12.5; fully on track to deliver 2024 guidance
GIMB.BB (Gimv) -- Trading Update: NAVPS net of dividend €52 as at end Jun-24
Also due to report today:
Earnings:
DACHs:M1 Kliniken (M12.GR)
Southern Europe: eDreams ODIGEO (EDR.SM), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GA), GR Sarantis (SAR.GA)
UK/Ireland: Ashtead (AHT.LN), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT.LN), Craneware (CRW.LN), Johnson Service (JSG.LN), Uniphar (UPR.ID), Midwich (MIDW.LN), STV Group (STVG.LN), Michelmersh Brick (MBH.LN), Alumasc (ALU.LN), Manolete Partners (NANO.LN)
Trading Update: DS Smith (SMDS.LN)
CMD/events: Nokia (NOKIA.FH) business update call, Sandoz (SDZ.SW) strategic review
M&A
RMV.LN (Rightmove) -- issues statement regarding REA Group possible offer
AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM) -- completes sale of Passive Optical Components assets to Focuslight Technologies
AXW.FP (Axway Software) -- completes acquisition of Sopra Banking Software
THEP.FP (Thermador Groupe) -- Thermador Groupe's Sodeco Valves signed purchase agreement for acquisition of Vena Contracta in Belgium for €1M paid in cash from equity
EXENS.FP (Exosens) -- completes the acquisition of Quebec-based specialist in FTIR (Fourier Transform Infra-Red) spectroradiometers LR Tech; price not disclosed
TFBANK.SS (TF Bank) -- intends to divest non-performing loan portfolios
KLIN.SW (Klingelnberg) -- acquires measurement technology expert VISPIRON ROTEC GmbH
Blackstone winning bidder in AirTrunk auction - Australian Financial Review
Adani Green and TotalEnergies strengthen partnership with strategic JV
Healthcare
EMEIS.FP (Emeis SA) -- announces Jean-Marc Boursier takes over from Laurent Lemaire as CFO as of 2-Sept
Other
NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- prices SEK3.75B Floating Rate Additional Tier 1 Conversion Notes and NOK1.60B Floating Rate Additional Tier 1 Conversion Notes
Index changes: Changes to STOXX Europe 600, effective 23-Sep
Italy Aug new passenger car registrations 69,121 units, (13.4%) y/y -- UNRAE (post EU close 2-Sep)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank ( pre EU market close)
TREL.B.SS (Trelleborg) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
MTRS.SS (Munters Group) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
SECARE.SS (Swedencare) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies
SCHP.SW (Schindler Holding) -- to outperform from market perform at Bernstein
AT.LN (Ashtead Technology Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Numis
OMV.AV (OMV) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
PUM.GR (Puma) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
ENC.SM (ENCE Energia y Celulosa) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
ADN1.GR (adesso) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
NXT.LN (Next) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
JDG.LN (Judges Scientific) -- buy at Jefferies
AFRY.SS (AFRY AB) -- buy at Jefferies
SWEC.B.SS (Sweco) -- hold at Jefferies
Other Actions
BDEV.LN (Barratt Developments) -- reinstated overweight at Barclays
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- resumed hold at Nordea
Data
Nikkei (0.22%) to 38615.58
Hang Seng (0.37%) to 17626.47
Shanghai Composite (0.33%) to 2801.66
S&P futures (7.8) vs prior close of 5661.0
€-$ (0.0018) or (0.16%) to 1.1056
$-¥ (0.57) or (0.39%) to 146.36
€-¥ (0.87) or (0.53%) to 161.81
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