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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.16%), Hang Seng +0.22%, Shanghai Composite +0.28% as of 04:10 ET

Sep 10 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities finished mixed Tuesday in a quiet session: Modest gains for mainland China following a late-afternoon surge, Hong Kong also stayed positive. Small gains for Australia, Jakarta at record high, Manila at 18-month high, India the regional leader. Japan's main boards dipped into the close, losses in Seoul and Taipei. US futures now higher after being lower all morning, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar slightly stronger, yen weakened late on alongside yuan. Treasury yields higher across tenors, CGB yields fell for third consecutive day to near record lows. Crude oil lower, precious metals flat, industrial metals higher. Cryptocurrencies volatile.

    • Asia markets in lackluster mood, opening brightly but failing to progress over the day as US futures remained in the red until near the closing bell, and despite some better macroeconomic data out of China. Mainland China stocks again bounced off five-year lows, this time leaving it until late to rally after another possible state-fund intervention. Hong Kong also rallied despite property stocks sinking sharply after several names were removed from Stock Connect (while Alibaba was added), and several biotech companies were labelled 'companies of concern' by the US House.

    • In macro developments, China export growth unexpectedly strengthened in August but import growth evaporated, underlining weak domestic demand; follows Asian manufacturing PMIs last week that showed a China-driven hit to export orders. Australian consumer confidence worsened with business sentiment and conditions also deteriorating amid growing economic headwinds. Malaysia industrial output growth beat expectations; Indonesia retail sales growth higher again; data late Monday showed Taiwan exports surging but government expects slowdown to end of year.

    • Mizuho Financial (8411.JP) said to be one of three bidders shortlisted for the acquisition of a majority stake in Avendus Capital. CATL (300750.CH) is said to be in talks to buy China-based DAS Solar. TSMC (2330.TT) said August revenue rose 33% y/y to NT$250.87B, fell 2.4% m/m. Samsung SDI (006400.KS) is to sell its polarizing film business to China-based Wuxi Hengxin Optoelectronic Materials for $836M. Nippon Steel (5401.JP) said politics is motivating US opposition to its $14.9B takeover offer for US Steel.

  • Digest:

    • China's exports top estimates with more challenges ahead amid growing trade tensions:

      • China's exports rose 8.7% y/y in August, beating Reuters forecast of 6.5% and higher from 7% growth in prior month. Exports grew for fifth straight month. Meanwhile imports only inched up 0.5%, well below consensus of 2% and last month's 7.2% jump. Trade surplus rose to $91.02B, beating $82.05B expected and $84.65B in July. Bloomberg said exports are rare bright spot for economy, although businesses have to cut prices to secure sales. SCMP noted China's export growth continued strong trend seen through 2024 and noted August's data likely to have benefited from base effect as exports had contracted by 8.8% in Aug-2023. Meanwhile analysts cautioned outbound shipments could face rising volatility due to front-loading with trade tensions dialing up. Recall Canada announced 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports, following US and EU; while India's steel ministry pushing to levy tariffs on steel imports from countries including China.

    • China property stocks sink in Hong Kong after removal from Stock Connect program:

      • Hang Seng mainland properties index down more than 3.0% midday Tuesday after several HK-listed developers removed from Stock Connect program, making them inaccessible to mainland investors. Among fallers, Sino Ocean (3377.HK) down 18.0%, Shimao Group (813.HK) down 25.0%, CIFI Holdings (884.HK) down 20.0%. Alibaba (9988.HK) added to program, stock up 4.7%. Hang Seng index trading slightly higher with property and REIT losses offset by banking stocks gains. Bloomberg report noted CSI 300 index again breaking through five-year low intraday Tuesday as property crisis drags on consumer confidence, geopolitical tensions simmer. Said $6.5T wiped out from market value of mainland and Hong Kong stocks since 2021 peak, equal to entire size of Japan's equity market. This despite state funds buying around $66B of stock ETFs in year to mid-August, companies encouraged to boost dividends and introduce buybacks; and tightening of quant trading, short-selling rules.

    • Soft China inflation data prompts more deflation concerns:

      • Press takeaways following yesterday's soft China inflation data indicated deflation talk gained further traction (Bloomberg, FT). Discussions revolved around the GDP deflator, which has fallen for the past five straight quarters and the trend seen continuing based on latest monthly data points. Noted concerns about key elements of a deflationary spiral amid the risk that shrinking household incomes may translate to weaker consumption. Some signals already evident, citing private surveys showing falling entry-level salaries and sluggish job growth. Also, consumer confidence is hovering at a record low, and households report a growing willingness to save instead of spending or buying homes. Deflation theme was amplified after some strong comments by former PBOC Governor Yi Gang last week, calling on policymakers to focus on fighting deflationary pressure through proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary policy. Yet, official rhetoric has given little indication of a pivot from cyclical support towards long called for direct measures to boost consumer demand. Article noted attention on nominal GDP as another characteristic of deflationary conditions, where growth is tracking below a 5% pace.

    • Myriad headwinds face China equities:

      • China equities hovering near lowest level in almost five years with main indexes down another 3-4% month-to-date. August economic data has underlined ongoing pressures on domestic demand as deflation stalks China's economy (Bloomberg). Stimulus measures continue to be met with disappointment as government's policy priorities invite more scrutiny. Economists have highlighted China's how investment-led growth model is generating low returns amid weak demand, fueling excess supply and keeping deflation pressures elevated. Property market support also failing to gain traction as supply overhang persists. Meanwhile, valuations stuck at depressed levels with MSCI China trading at 9x forward earnings. However, consensus estimates are being culled as firms lower their outlook for sales amid tepid consumer demand. CSI 300's 12M forward earnings estimates has fallen more than 9% this year (Bloomberg). Markets also dealing with uncertainty tied to upcoming US election with prospect of ramped up Trump tariffs a factor behind JP Morgan recently downgrading its outlook on China equities.

    • Australian consumer, business sentiment deteriorates amid economic headwinds:

      • Australian Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index fell for 84.6 in September from 85.0 in August. Respondents became more mindful about economic outlook as concerns about cost-of-living pressures and interest rates eased. Consumers more sensitive to hard landing risks with confidence about 12M economic outlook deteriorating notably. While there was an improvement in assessment of family finances, this sub-index remains in deeply pessimistic territory. Worries about economic outlook translated to pickup in concerns about jobs as unemployment expectations among those with a job rose to highest since 2016 outside of Covid. Separately, NAB business confidence index fell to -4 in August from +1 in July, lowest this year. Business conditions index fell to +3 from +6, lowest since Jan-2022 and below average levels. Among conditions activity gauges, employment fell sharply amid softer sales and profitability. Inflation metrics mixed with labor cost growth easing but purchase costs remaining elevated and growth in retail prices edging higher.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +4.2% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): included in Hong Kong Stock Connect with Shanghai, Shenzhen stock exchanges, effective tomorrow

      • +2.2% 3349.JP (COSMOS Pharmaceutical): reports August existing stores sales +3.8% y/y

      • +1.6% 011200.KS (HMM): to invest KRW23.5T in next five years to enhance business competitiveness

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -11.7% 544.SP (CSE Global): subsidiary Hankin agrees to final arbitration settlement of $8M for legal proceedings by customer

      • -8.6% 4568.JP (Daiichi Sankyo): notes results from TROPION-Lung01 Phase III trial of datopotamab deruxtecan; OS results numerically favored datopotamab deruxtecan compared to docetaxel but did not reach statistical significance

      • -3.9% 2269.HK (Wuxi Biologics (Cayman)): Draft Bill (H.R. 8333) was considered and passed by US House of Representatives; it included, among others, designation of company as "biotechnology company of concern"

      • -3.2% 006400.KS (Samsung SDI): sells polarizing film business to Wuxi Hengxin Photoelectric Materials for KRW1.121T

      • -2.2% 300750.CH (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.): reportedly in talks to acquire DAS Solar

      • -0.2% 8411.JP (Mizuho Financial): reportedly among three bidders shortlisted for acquisition of majority stake in Avendus Capital

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China August

        • Trade balance $91.02B vs consensus $82.05B and $84.65B in prior month

          • Exports +8.7% y/y vs consensus +6.5% and +7.0% in prior month

          • Imports +0.5% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and +7.2 % in prior month

      • Australia

        • September Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index 84.6 vs 85.0 in August

        • August NAB business confidence (4) vs +1 in July

          • Business conditions +3 vs +6 in July

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (56.59) or (0.16%) to 36159.16

      • Hang Seng: 37.13 or +0.22% to 17234.09

      • Shanghai Composite: 7.70 or +0.28% to 2744.19

      • Shenzhen Composite: 4.01 or +0.27% to 1500.24

      • ASX200: 23.80 or +0.30% to 8011.90

      • KOSPI: (12.50) or (0.49%) to 2523.43

      • SENSEX: 548.26 or +0.67% to 82107.80

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.36 or +0.25% to 143.5360

      • $-KRW: +0.91 or +0.07% to 1343.5700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.06%) to 0.6657

      • $-INR: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 83.9804

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.08% to 7.1196

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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