Sep 10 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower. Switzerland (0.1%) and France (0.2%) lead outperformers, whilst Italy (1.1%), Portugal, Austria, Germany and Denmark (1.0%) lead underperformers.
Risk sentiment has improved amid thoughts US jobs data not weak enough to threaten soft landing narrative. AI momentum has come under increased scrutiny in recent weeks, though secular growth theme still considered mostly intact. Yen strength a factor behind recent Japan weakness, though diminished prospect of aggressive Fed rate cuts seen limiting volatility. Slowdown in Eurozone economy supports ECB rate cut expectations. Will also narrow spread between official rates this week in line with March announcement.
In other news, report EU to plans to slightly reduce proposed additional tariffs from EVs imported from China by TSLA and other carmakers. More press conjecture over potential for UK Chancellor Reeves to increase tax on banks, along with a warning on unsustainable debt levels. German final CPI in line with flash. Meanwhile, Germany pushed back over Draghi's plans to reinvigorate EU economy which would require larger funding capacity and greater use of joint-bond issuance.
Macro focus on UK jobs data, which showed slower-than-forecast increase in jobless claims 23.7K vs consensus 95.5K, while unemployment rate dropped 4.1% vs consensus 4.2% and wage growth eased. More press conjecture over potential for UK Chancellor Reeves to increase tax on banks, along with a warning on unsustainable debt levels. German final CPI inline with flash.
M&A news dominate the headlines, with AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) announcing a shares and cash offer for Centamin plc (CEY.LN) which values Centamin at £1.9B (or ~$2.5B); in another deal, local Spanish press wrote that CVC is in talks to acquire Rovi (ROVI.SM) assets for more than €3.00B; also, Shurgard Self Storage (SHUR.BB) acquired Prime Self-Storage for €100.0M and UBS Group (UBSG.SW) is reportedly exploring partnership options for its Indian wealth-management operation.
On the reporting front, few companies issued earnings update, including D'Ieteren Group (DIE.BB) and Interparfums (ITP.FP). In Germany, BMW (BMWN.GR) issued a profit warning and lowered its guidance for 2024 and now sees automotive EBIT margin in corridor from 6% to 7% vs prior guidance 8% to 10%.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 09-Sep to 13-Sep attached) Lalique Group (LLQ.SW) Inditex (ITX.SM), ElvalHalcor Hellenic Copper & Aluminium Industry (ELHA.GA), Avio (AVIO.IM), Dunelm (DNLM.LN), Redrow (RDW.LN), Energean (ENOG.LN), and Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include UK Jul manufacturing/industrial production, trade balance, construction output, Aug monthly GDP tracker - NIESR, Netherlands Jul trade balance, Portugal Aug final CPI
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +1.77%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.17%, Utilities +0.08%, Construct & Mtls +0.02%, Technology (0.02%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.04%), Travel & Leisure (0.05%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.23%), Insurance (0.23%), Chemicals (0.30%), Financial Svcs (0.43%), Retail (0.44%), Telecom (0.45%),
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (3.83%), Energy(1.53%), Banks (1.43%), Health Care (0.66%), Consumer Products and Services (0.65%), Basic Resources (0.59%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
France, Germany and UK condemn export of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia - The Guardian
Blinken and Lammy to make joint visit to Kyiv at 'critical moment' for war in Ukraine - FT
Oil Spread Narrows Sharply Amid Concerns Over European Demand - Bloomberg
Central Banks
BOE's Breeden Says Easing Bank Regulations Could Spur Growth - Bloomberg
EU
Von der Leyen delays unveiling of new European Commission until next week - Politico
UK
Starmer wins vote for winter fuel raid on pensioners - The Telegraph, BBC
Bank Bosses Head to Reeves Meeting With Capital Rules in Focus - Bloomberg
France
French Bonds Suffer Exodus of Japanese Cash in Sign of Fragility - Bloomberg
Germany
Lindner uses the budget debate to make announcements to traffic light partners - Handelsblatt
Banks give up loans for real estate project developments - Handelsblatt
Germany's Image as Auto Superpower Hit by VW's Slow Decline - Bloomberg
Sweden
Sweden appoints new foreign minister with focus on supporting Ukraine - Reuters
Norway
Norway's spy chief sees Russia more likely to attempt sabotage - Reuters
Greece
Spending bonus of €500 mln - ekathimrini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+26.8% ACTI.SS (Active Biotech SEK0.44, +0.10) -- study update
+22.7% CEY.LN (Centamin £1.49, +0.27) -- AngloGold Ashanti PLC announces shares and cash offer for company; Q3 QTD (Quarter to Date) gold production
+14.0% AT1.GR (Aroundtown €2.68, +0.34) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+13.0% GAMA.LN (Gamma Communications £16.58, +1.96) -- H1 earnings
+7.7% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.57, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+6.3% RATO.B.SS (Ratos SEK33.42, +2.00) -- subsidiaries knightec and Semcon to form Knightec Group
+5.5% SANN1.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding CHF9.70, +0.51) -- enters into an exclusive distribution agreement with GENESIS Pharma for AGAMREE (Vamorolone) in Central and Eastern Europe
+5.4% CAP.FP (Capgemini €192.90, +9.75) -- BofA upgrade
+4.1% VCT.FP (Vicat €31.55, +1.25) -- HSBC upgrade
+2.8% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.30, +0.01) -- H1 earnings
+2.6% IWG.LN (International Workplace Group £1.77, +0.04) -- Buckley Capital Management sends letter to board and outlines recommended actions to unlock shareholder value
+2.5% MCHN.SW (MCH Group CHF4.06, +0.10) -- H1 earnings
+2.2% BVZN.SW (BVZ Holding CHF915.00, +20.00) -- H1 earnings
Trading Lower:
-49.2% VICO.SS (Vicore Pharma Holding SEK8.09, -7.61) -- stuty update; rights issue of ~SEK 782M
-18.6% IQE.LN (IQE £0.20, -0.04) -- H1 earnings; expects performnce at the lower end of the range of analyst forecasts for the full year
-16.2% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics €8.78, -1.48) -- to launch Artemia Phase 3 registration study for cancer vaccine Tedopi in second-line Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
-11.1% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €76.96, -8.64) -- lowers FY guidance
-10.6% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £20.80, -2.50) -- CEO to step down
-6.6% ROVI.SM (Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. €79.60, -5.45) -- CVC in talks to acquire Rovi's assets for more than €3.00B - Expansion
-6.6% DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group €221.60, -15.00) -- H1 earnings; family shareholding reorganisation
-5.8% SLP.LN (Sylvania Platinum £0.49, -0.03) -- FY earnings
-5.1% FUM.LN (Futura Medical £0.42, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-3.2% ASC.LN (Asos £4.26, -0.14) -- Barclays downgrade
-3.1% TRX.LN (Tissue Regenix Group £0.65, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-3.0% CSN.LN (Chesnara £2.57, -0.08) -- H1 earnings
-2.3% AZN.LN (AstraZeneca £120.28, -2.98) -- company and Daiichi Sankyo notes detailed results from TROPION-Lung01 Phase III trial of datopotamab deruxtecan
-2.1% IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group €393.00, -8.00) -- resumed outperform at Oddo
-1.8% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.12, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
France: Neurones (NRO.FP), Assystem (ASY.FP), Roche Bobois (RBO.FP), Sword Group (SWP.FP), Carmat (ALCAR.FP), HighCo (HCO.FP)
DACHs: Lalique Group (LLQ.SW)
Nordics: ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC)
Southern Europe: Inditex (ITX.SM), ElvalHalcor Hellenic Copper & Aluminium Industry (ELHA.GA), Avio (AVIO.IM), Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM), Esprinet (PRT.IM), El.En. (ELN.IM)
UK: Dunelm (DNLM.LN), Redrow (RDW.LN), Energean (ENOG.LN), Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), Ricardo (RCDO.LN), The Gym Group (GYM.LN), Epwin Group (EPWN.LN), Frontier Developments (FDEV.LN)
CMD/events: discoverIE Group (DSCV.LN), Marimekko (MEKKO.FH)
Data:
Economics:
Aug CPI
Denmark +1.4% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior +1.1%
Norway +2.6% y/y vs consensus +3.5% and prior +2.8%
Greece +3.0% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +2.7%
Jul Industrial Production
Sweden (1.6%) y/y vs consensus +3.5% and prior revised +0.4% from +0.9%
Austria (1.1%) y/y vs consensus (4.7%) and prior revised (3.3%) from (3.9%)
Spain (0.4%) y/y vs consensus +0.9% and prior revised +0.2% from +0.6%
Finland +6.4% y/y vs consensus +0.3% and prior +3.1%
Greece +10.6% y/y vs consensus +8.3% and prior revised to +9.9% from +9.5%
Italy (3.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (2.6%)
Germany Aug Final CPI +1.9% y/y vs preliminary +1.9%
Norway Aug PPI +3.6% y/y vs consensus +8.3% and prior +6.5%
UK ILO Aug Claimant Count Change 23.7K vs consensus +95.5K and prior revised +102.3K from +135.0K
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 24): ($2.66) or (3.87%) to $66.05
€-$ (0.0020) or (0.18%) to 1.1022
£-$ (0.0014) or (0.11%) to 1.3060
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8439
S&P 500 +0.02%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.11%
DAX: +9.04%
CAC: (1.80%)
MIB: +9.58%
Stoxx 600: +6.05%
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