Sep 23 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher after seeing mixed performances last week. This week sees SNB and Riksbank interest rate decisions, United Nations Future Summit, UK Labour Party conf., Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Sep flash manufacturing/services PMIs, Germany Sep Ifo survey as well as earnings/updates from the likes of H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Halma (HLMA.LN) and Smiths Group (SMIN.LN).
Focus on German political developments after Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) on Sunday held off the far right in a key regional election in the eastern state of Brandenburg. The SPD narrowly finished first in Brandenburg. According to preliminary projections, with ~30.9% of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 29.2%, while the new populist-leftist party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance or BSW came in third with 13.5%. The CDU, who lead national polls by a substantial margin, placed fourth with 12.1%. POLITICO writes that the victory gives Scholz, who is struggling to hold his fractious three-party coalition together, a reprieve - at least for the time being. His approval ratings have hit record lows, and he was even asked not to campaign in Brandenburg due to his unpopularity with voters. Elsewhere, the Augsburger Allgemeine discusses how the FDP could look for an emergency exit from the traffic light coalition.
European macro data releases include Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Sep flash manufacturing/services PMIs, UK Sep industrial trends orders - CBI, Netherlands Q2 final GDP
Also of note, Italy's ISTAT due to present the full revisions to GDP. In Belgium, De Wever's continues his second attempt at forming a new government, with deadline of 23-Sep to report back to the country's King. PM leads Norway's delegation to the 79th UN General Assembly (24-30-Sep). EU agriculture and fisheries ministers meeting. InnoTrans 2024, Berlin (Tue-Fri), company press confs include Siemens Mobility, whilst Vossloh (VOS.GR) hosting investor day. Deutsche Börse index (MDAX, SDAX) changes from 4-Sep take effect.
In corporate highlights, REA Group increases offer for Rightmove (RMV.LN) to implied value of 770p/share vs prior 749p/share. Focus on US chip sector M&A amid reports Qualcomm said to have contacted Intel (INTC) in recent days to discuss potential transaction as well as Intel considering potential equity-like investment of as much as $5B from Apollo.
Macro/politics
French Premier Eyes Business Taxes, Warns Debt in 'Grave' State - Bloomberg
Rachel Reeves to promise 'a Budget to rebuild Britain' - BBC
Germany Scholz's Social Democrats narrowly ahead of far-right in Brandenburg regional election - Le Monde
Bavaria's FDP leader Hagen calls for exit from traffic light coalition - Welt
Belgium: Federal Government talks: De Wever expected at Royal Palace on Monday - Brussels TImes
Fitch Upgrades Croatia to 'A-' -- link
Fitch Revises Portugal's Outlook to Positive; Affirms IDR at 'A-' - link
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Earnings:
France: Quadient (QDT.FP), Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), Crossject (ALCJ.FP), HDF Energy (HDF.FP), Gensight Biologics (SIGHT.FP), Poxel (POXEL.FP)
UK: Alphawave IP (AWE.LN), Oxford Biomedica (OXB.LN), Arecor Therapeutics (AREC.LN)
CMD/events: ageas (AGS.NA), SynAct Pharma (SUNACT.SS)
M&A
RMV.LN (Rightmove) -- REA Group increases offer for Rightmove to implied value of 770p/share vs prior 749p/share
T3X.GR (Telix Pharmaceuticals) -- to acquire RLS Radiopharmacies for $230M cash upfront and up to $20M earn-out
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- SembCorp Industries notes EMA of Singapore has no objections to Sembcorp's acquisition of 30% interest in Senoko Energy
532822.IN (Vodafone Idea) -- concludes $3.6B (~INR300B) deal with Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung to supply network equipment for 3-years
IIA.AV (Immofinanz) -- Petrus Advisers will today approach CPI Property Group SA regarding strategic alternatives for IMMOFINANZ AG
IMPN.SW (Implenia) -- welcomes talks about possible merger of Ina Invest and Cham Group
GMM.GR (Grammer) -- signs agreement to sell the Toledo Molding & Die Group to APC Parent LLC
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- FDA approves Sanofi's Sarclisa with bortezomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche announced that the World Health Organization (WHO) has included dual-stain cytology testing in its cervical cancer prevention guideline
IDYA (IDEAYA Biosciences) -- IDEAYA announces webcast to report interim Phase 2 data for darovasertib and regulatory update from FDA type C meeting in neoadjuvant UM on Monday, 23-Sep-24
IPH.FP (Innate Pharma) -- Announces FDA Clearance of the IND for IPH4502, a Nectin-4 ADC to Be Developed in Solid Tumors
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by Bpifrance Participations SA)
RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding) -- will receive $2M milestone payment from SWK Funding LLC this month, following FDA's approval of Zevra Therapeutics Inc.'s arimoclomol for treatment of Niemann-Pick Disease Type C
Other
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- and Zain Iraq begin three-year partnership to grow network capcity and modernize infrastructure in the southern region
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- Italian govt to begin sale of 15% stake in Poste Italiane in one month time -- Sole24Ore
VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- discloses Canal+ new perimeter and reporting segments
CON.GR (Continental) -- CEO confident in spin-off timeline - Bloomberg
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded $184.4M US Army contract modification
NDA.GR (Aurubis) -- opened first multimetal recycling plant in US
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- completes the first tranche of €60M share buyback program
BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues) -- Banco Comercial Português, S.A. informs about the ruling of the Competition, Regulation and Supervision Court, imposes the €60M fine levied in September 2019 against BPA
MOL.HB (MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas) -- MOL signs agreement in Azerbaijan to develop gas reserves of the ACG field
SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden) -- to begin marketing IPO of residential unit Sveafastigheter AB this week - Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with the matter
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $81.2M, +55.6% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Movado Group's MGI Luxury amends license agreement with HUGO BOSS AG - 8-K
Whitehaven, Peabody and Ulan Coal seeking to overturn Fair Work Commission decision mandating joint bargaining - The Australian
Key rating changes
Upgrades
UBS upgrades DNLM.LN, KGF.LN
AD.AV (Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
HL.LN (Hargreaves Lansdown) -- to outperform from underperform at Autonomous Research
Downgrades
SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
HAS.LN (Hays Plc) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
UBS initiates BME.LN, DOM.LN, MKS.LN
DNB.NO(DNB Bank) -- initiated underweight at Morgan Stanley
BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor) -- initiated reduce at HSBC
Data
Nikkei +0.00% to 37723.91
Hang Seng +0.28% to 18309.93
Shanghai Composite +0.58% to 2752.65
S&P futures +15.3 vs prior close of 5762.0
€-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.1164
$-¥ +0.22 or +0.16% to 144.09
€-¥ +0.24 or +0.15% to 160.85
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