Sep 30 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended broadly lower. France's CAC underperformed on French tax concerns. Autos & Parts, Travel & Leisure, media and Construction & Materials the biggest decliners. Oil & Gas and Basic Resources relative outperformers.
Speaking before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the EU Parliament in Brussels, ECB president Lagarde hinted at possibility of a further rate cut in October. Said latest developments strengthen confidence inflation to return to target in a timely manner. Also noted suppressed level of survey indicators suggest recovery facing headwinds, adding will be taken into account in next meeting. Markets now see a 75% chance of a 25bp cut in October, up from 25% seen early last week, Reuters reports.
In macro releases, UK Q2 GDP revised down. Lloyds business barometer dipped. Nationwide house price data firmer-than-forecast. Comes as BoE mortgage approvals hit highest since August 2022. Ifo survey shows significant fall in firms price expectations to lowest level since Feb-21.
UK press tipped pension tax raid by UK chancellor Reeves in October budget. Swiss KOF leading indicator beat. French press said government considering taxes on large firms, which could include tax on stock buybacks. On political front, in Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won an unprecedented election victory with 29.2% of the vote according to official provisional results.
Geopolitics attention on escalating Middle East tensions as Israel steps up efforts against Hezbollah and Houthis, raising concerns of broader conflagration which could see Iran get involved more directly.
On the corporate front, auto-sector in focus after a slew of profit warnings, including Volkswagen (VOW3.GR), Porsche Automobil Holding SE (PAH3.GR), Stellantis (STLAM.IM) and Aston Martin (AML.LN). China stimulus still affecting positively luxury stocks, with LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), Prada (1913.HK), Hermes (RMS.FP) and Ferragamo (SFER.IM) trading higher. Elsewhere, Playtech (PTEC.LN) issued its H1 report, Aperam (APAM.NA) issued an update on Q3 and Carmat (ALCAR.FP) completed its capital increase. In M&A news, REA Group Ltd withdrew bid for Rightmove (RMV.LN).
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Italy and Spain Sep manufacturing PMI as well as final reads for Eurozone, France, German and UK and Eurozone Sep preliminary CPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Oil&Gas+0.18%, Basic Resources (0.12%), Telecom (0.34%), Utilities (0.35%), Retail (0.39%), Health Care (0.62%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.72%), Insurance (0.77%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.88%)
Underperformers
Autos & Parts (4.04%), Travel & Leisure (2.83%), Media (1.81%), Construct & Mtls (1.78%), Technology (1.58%), Banks (1.39%), Consumer Products and Services (1.33%), Real Estate (1.08%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.01%), Chemicals (1.00%)
Macro:
Central banks
EU
EU to continue China electric vehicle talks even after final vote, say sources -- Reuters
UK
Germany
France
Italy:
Italy Inflation Slows Below 1%, Pressuring ECB to Cut Faster -- Bloomberg
Austria
Austria goes back to the future as voters embrace far-right party founded by Nazis -- Politico
Greece:
Political acrimony, migrant death, and youth violence on this week's agenda -- ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+28.2% ALVIO.FP (Valerio Therapeutics €0.11, +0.02) -- acquires Emglev Therapeutics
+12.0% KMK.LN (Kromek Group £0.06, +0.01) -- trading update
+6.0% BGO.LN (Bango £1.16, +0.06) -- H1 earnings
+5.5% MUL.LN (Mulberry Group £1.10, +0.06) -- retail offer to raise up to £750,000 at an issue price of 100p/share
+5.5% ANP.LN (Anpario £3.35, +0.18) -- acquires Bio-Vet for total net cash consideration of up to $7.3M
+5.2% WAGA.FP (Waga Energy €15.20, +0.76) -- H1 earnings
+5.1% PHO.NO (PhotoCure NOK55.20, +2.70) -- trial presentation
+5.1% GUBRA.DC (Gubra A/S DKK496.00, +25.00) -- initiated buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
+5.0% IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics SEK12.85, +0.60) -- last patient enrolled in ongoing Phase IIb study of pirepemat
+3.9% HYL.BB (Hyloris Pharmaceuticals €6.00, +0.22) -- partners signing of a licensing agreement with Xizang Weixinkang Pharmaceutical Co. for Maxigesic IV in China
+3.7% VVV3.GR (Ökoworld €31.10, +1.10) -- H1 earnings
+3.7% APAM.NA (Aperam €28.42, +1.00) -- update on Q3; sees higher H2 adj EBITDA versus H1; initiated buy at Jefferies
+3.5% LUCE.LN (Luceco £1.56, +0.05) -- acquires CMD for cash consideration of £30.0M
+3.0% PNDX.B.SS (Pandox SEK202.50, +6.00) -- ABG Sundal Collier upgrade
+2.7% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK463.50, +12.00) -- updates on Tyra production guidance for Q4
+2.5% IGP.LN (Intercede Group £2.04, +0.05) -- contract
+2.5% FEN.LN (Frenkel Topping Group £0.42, +0.01) -- H1 earnings
+2.2% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions NOK40.62, +0.88) -- contract
+2.1% HAG.GR (HENSOLDT €29.74, +0.62) -- Kepler Cheuvreux and Deutsche Bank upgrades
+1.9% CADLR.NO (Cadeler NOK74.70, +1.40) -- signs a vessel reservation agreement for two offshore wind projects in the Asia-Pacific region
Notable Decliners
-25.7% POXEL.FP (Poxel €0.53, -0.14) -- non-dilutive financing agreement with OrbiMed for $50M to monetize portion of Poxel's future royalties and sales-based payments from TWYMEEG sales by Sumitomo Pharma in Japan
-25.7% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.15, -0.05) -- H1 earnings
-25.3% ALCAR.FP (Carmat €1.43, -0.41) -- places 6.4M new shares at €1.60/share
-24.5% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £1.20, -0.39) -- trading update; issues FY2024 profit warning
-14.7% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €12.50, -2.14) -- lowers FY guidance; Oddo downgrade
-10.7% GOMX.SS (GomSpace Group SEK4.76, -0.52) -- end of quarter update
-9.0% HLG.GR (Highlight Communications €1.02, -0.10) -- Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $90.7M, +5.8% y/y - Box Office Mojo
-7.7% RMV.LN (Rightmove £6.49, -0.51) -- concludes REA's latest proposal remains unattractive and continues to materially undervalue Rightmove
-6.7% TBLD.LN (tinyBuild £0.04, -0.00) -- H1 earnings
-4.9% AVCT.LN (Avacta Group £0.51, -0.03) -- H1 earnings
-4.8% SMIN.LN (Smiths Group £17.21, -0.84) -- Barclays downgrade
-4.0% WLN.FP (Worldline €6.64, -0.27) -- transferred equal weight at Barclays
-3.7% TRI.FP (Trigano €116.90, -4.40) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
-3.6% HOFI.SS (Hoist Finance SEK88.40, -3.20) -- initiated hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
-2.9% PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE €40.93, -1.21) -- lowers FY guidance; Stifel downgrade
-2.9% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners NOK136.40, -4.10) -- SEB downgrade
-2.5% III.LN (3i Group £32.68, -0.84) -- ShadowFall takes multi-million pound short position in 3i on the basis that Action is overvalued -- Sunday Times
-2.5% NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA €6.06, -0.16) -- transferred underweight at Barclays
-2.5% BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss €41.06, -1.06) -- Metzler Capital Markets downgrade
-2.4% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €79.48, -1.96) -- Rumor: BMW may join Renault-Stallantis merger - Il Sole 24 Ore
-2.0% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €94.78, -1.96) -- lowers FY guidance; Intesa Sanpaolo downgrade
-2.0% ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics CHF0.07, -0.00) -- Q2 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: SkiStar (SKIS.B.SS), TheWorks.co.uk (WRKS.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Sep Preliminary CPI
Germany +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior +1.9%
Portugal +2.1% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and prior +1.9%
Italy +0.7% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior +1.1%
Ireland HICP +0.2% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and prior +1.1%
Greece
Jul Retail Sales (2.8%) y/y vs consensus +0.9% and prior revised +5.9% from +5.8%
Aug PPI (2.4%) y/y vs consensus (0.1%) and prior +0.1%
UK
Aug
BoE Mortgage Approvals 64.86K vs cons 63.8K and prior revised to 62.5K from 61.99K
M4 MoneySupply (0.1%) m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior +0.3%
Q2 GDP SA (final) +0.7% y/y vs cons +0.9% and prior +0.9%
Sep Nationwide House Price Index +3.2% y/y vs prior +2.4%
Switzerland Sep KOF Leading Indicator 105.5 vs cons 102.0 and prior revised to 105.0 from 101.6
Markets:
WTI Crude (24-Nov): +$0.78 or +1.14% to $68.96
€-$ (0.0017) or (0.15%) to 1.1145
£-$ +0.0027 or +0.20% to 1.3403
€-£ (0.0031) to 0.8316
S&P 500 (0.08%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +6.51%
DAX: +15.34%
CAC: +1.23%
MIB: +12.56%
Stoxx 600: +9.16%
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