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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.02%) to 8280.63, DAX +0.55% to 19120.93, CAC40 +0.85% to 7541.36, STOXX 600 +0.44% to 518.56

Oct 04 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed mostly higher with pan-European indices quickly reversing earlier losses and ending just off session highs. Greece +1.4%, France +0.9%, Finland and Italy both +0.7% led outperformers, with Denmark (0.2%) and Switzerland (0.1%) leading underperformers.

    • Focus on Middle Eastern tensions turning on Israel's response to Iran's missile barrage this week. Thursday's oil price spike came after President Biden revealed US discussing supporting Israeli strike on Iranian crude facilities. Iranian crude output hit six-year high of 3.37M bpd in August while Citi noted major strike could knock ~1.5M bpd off the market. Brent tracking for biggest weekly gain since early 2023, up ~10% from recent low. Brent's options skew has swung positive with implied volatility also sharply higher.

    • Central bank narrative still in the spotlight. ECB board member Schnabel, previously known for her hawkish stance, signalled shift in perspective on inflation, suggesting increasing likelihood of return to 2% target (Reuters, Bloomberg). With inflation dipping below 2% and Eurozone facing economic headwinds, markets now discounting 90% chance of a 25bps cut on 17-Oct. Meanwhile in the UK, BoE Chief Economist Pill adopted a more cautious tone on interest rate outlook compared with Thursday's remarks from Governor Bailey. He highlighted there is ample reason for caution and warned against cutting rates too far or too fast. Said need for caution and backs gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction amid current wage data and services price inflation.

    • From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, French industrial production beat and Eurozone construction PMI improves from a low base and still deep in contraction. Also, Germany and UK Sep new car registrations released (7.0%) y/y and +1.0%. y/y, respectively.

    • In corporate news, Alstom (ALO.FP) presented a preview to its Q2 and H1 2024/25 results. From the DACH region, Redcare Pharmacy (RDC.GR) reported prelim Q3 sales ahead of expectations and adjusts FY24 guidance. Out of the Nordics, DSV.DC (DSV A/S) issued Q3 trading update and narrowed the full-year EBIT guidance for 2024. Company also announced 26.4M-share equity offering and directed issue. Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO) reported Sep traffic figures. In the UK, JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN) reported FY EPS 48.6p ex-items vs FactSet 43.2p and announced FY dividend 12.0p per share. In other developments, Springer Nature (SPG.GR) made its stock market debut.

    • On M&A front, Mytheresa reportedly nearing deal to acquire loss-making YNAP from Richemont (CFR.SW). Also, Recordati (REC.IM) announced agreement with Sanofi (SAN.FP) to acquire global rights to ENJAYMO (sutimlimab) for an upfront payment of $825M plus milestone payments of up to $250M. Elis (ELIS.FP) announced termination of discussions with Vestis and UniFirst.

    • The week ahead sees Eurogroup meeting, Chancellor Scholz meet with US President Biden, German Aug industrial production, Switzerland Sep Consumer Climate - SECO, UK Aug industrial/manufacturing production as well as earnings/updates from Givaudan (GIVN.SW), OMV (OMV.AV), Porsche (P911.GR), Repsol (REP.SM) and Tryg (TRYG.DC).

    • Over the weekend, on Sun (6th) there's Kazakhstan referendum on new nuclear power plant construction and ASEAN Summit 2024 gets underway (through Fri).

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Banks +1.79%, Oil & Gas +1.60%, Travel & Leisure +1.56%, Autos & Parts +1.55%, Basic Resources +1.06%, Insurance +0.87%, Construct & Mtls +0.64%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.60%, Retail +0.47%

      • Underperformers

        • Utilities (0.66%), Health Care (0.41%), Food & Beverage (0.28%), Real Estate(0.21%), Media (0.15%), Financial Svcs +0.32%, Telecom +0.32%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.34%, Technology +0.34%, Chemicals +0.35%

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • EU

        • Brussels breaks impasse after EU countries fail to agree on Chinese EV tariffs - Euronews

        • EU boosts defence industry funding as EIB and EDA forge closer ties - DefenseNews

        • France and Italy target corporate taxes to tackle budget deficits amid economic challenges - Bloomberg

      • UK

        • Economists suggest BoE will enact back-to-back rate cuts until May 205 - Telegraph

        • Pound sterling set for worst week all year as markets reassess path for interest rates - City AM

      • Ireland

        • Has Sinn Féin missed its chance to govern Ireland? - FT

        • Budget likely to push more elderly and people with disabilities into poverty, ESRI - Irish Times

      • France

        • France plans temporary tax increases on major companies to address budget deficit - Bloomberg, Reuters

        • France's Barnier bets on hardliner as 'insurance' against far right - FT

      • Italy

        • Italy's largest lobby group to push for EU policy U-turn on CO2 emission trading system - Euractiv

      • Turkey

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +15.8% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF2.78, +0.38) -- reports positive study results

        • +11.8% ELIS.FP (Elis €20.84, +2.20) -- termination of discussions with Vestis and UniFirst

        • +7.7% CAPMAN.FH (Capman €1.92, +0.14) -- to sell CaPS to Proxer Bidco Oy for €75M

        • +6.7% SUR.GR (Surteco Group €15.90, +1.00) -- Banasino Investments S.a r.l. to make mandatory offer for company after reaching ~30% of its voting rights

        • +6.7% DSV.DC (DSV A/S DKK1,504.50, +94.00) -- Q3 trading update

        • +5.5% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £4.81, +0.25) -- acquires digital editorial content provider Hodinkee

        • +5.3% SCR.FP (SCOR SE €20.70, +1.04) -- Berenberg upgrade

        • +4.5% REC.IM (Recordati €51.70, +2.25) -- agreement with Sanofi to acquire global rights to ENJAYMO (sutimlimab) for an upfront payment of $825M plus milestone payments of up to $250M

        • +4.0% ALO.FP (Alstom €19.37, +0.74) -- presents a preview to its Q2 and H1 2024/25 results

        • +3.8% SEA1.NO (Sea1 Offshore NOK29.95, +1.10) -- secures multi-well project for 3 AHTS in Australia

        • +3.8% SDR.LN (Schroders £3.60, +0.13) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade

        • +3.7% NWG.LN (NatWest Group £3.42, +0.12) -- initiated buy at Goldman Sachs

        • +3.4% COV.FP (Covivio €55.85, +1.85) -- Barclays and Citi upgrade

        • +3.3% AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel €63.44, +2.02) -- to begin portfolio review with initial focus on Deco South Asia

        • +3.1% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €8.69, +0.26) -- invests in 28 solar rooftops across Romania

        • +2.6% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £2.15, +0.05) -- Senegal update

        • +2.4% SKF.B.SS (SKF SEK201.70, +4.80) -- Handelsbanken upgrade

        • +2.3% ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris €110.00, +2.50) -- announces targets for decarbonization have been validated by SBTi

        • +2.2% SKA.B.SS (Skanska SEK219.80, +4.80) -- contract

        • +2.0% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia €0.26, -0.00) -- Telecom Italia to hold extraordinary board meeting this afternoon to discuss sale of Sparkle -- Sole24Ore

        • +1.6% ENI.IM (Eni €14.33, +0.23) -- CEO hopes KKR to become shareholder of Enlive by the end of 2024 -- Sole24Ore, citing CEO

        • +1.0% TNXT.IM (Tinexta €11.60, +0.11) -- to examine the Borsa Italiana Panel's decision in respect of the consideration of the mandatory tender offer for Defence Tech Holding

      • Notable Decliners

        • -15.5% HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd €139.50, -25.60) -- US port strike ends earlier tha expected

        • -11.6% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK10.90, -1.43) -- Sep traffic +12.0% y/y

        • -5.2% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK9,740.00, -530.00) -- US port strike ends earlier tha expected

        • -4.4% FER.SM (Ferrovial €36.52, -1.68) -- Ontario government weighs potential acquisition of 407 ETR highway - El Economista

        • -3.5% ARGX.BB (argenx €481.80, -17.60) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade

        • -2.6% SSE.LN (Scottish and Southern Energy £18.41, -0.50) -- Jefferies downgrade

        • -1.6% RNWH.LN (Renew Holdings £11.18, -0.18) -- disposes of Walter Lilly for nominal consideration on cash free/debt free basis to Size Holdings

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings: Beeks Financial Cloud Group (BKS.LN)

      • Trading Update: Repsol (REP.SM), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), Shell (SHEL.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Switzerland Sep Unemployment Rate (sa) 2.6% vs consensus 2.6% and prior 2.5%

      • France Aug Industrial Production +1.4% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised +0.2% from (0.5%)

      • Spain Aug Industrial Production (0.1%) y/y vs consensus +0.1% and prior (0.4%)

      • Germany Sep Construction PMI 41.7 vs consensus 40.2 and prior 38.9

      • UK Sep Construction PMI 57.2 vs consensus 53.1 and prior 53.6

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Nov 24): +$0.65 or +0.88% to $74.36

      • €-$ (0.0069) or (0.63%) to 1.0965

      • £-$ (0.0020) or (0.15%) to 1.3105

      • €-£ (0.0038) to 0.8366

      • S&P 500 +0.16%

        • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +7.08%

        • DAX: +14.14%

        • CAC: (0.02%)

        • MIB: +10.64%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.26%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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