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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.83%), Hang Seng (0.16%), Shanghai Composite +0.05% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 16 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly lower Wednesday: Greater China markets ended mixed despite an early rally as Shenzhen dropped again; and Shanghai and Hong Kong both pared 1%+ gains to end near unchanged. Japan's main boards, the Kospi and Taiex all lower on read through from Wall Street's selloff overnight and ASML's plunge. India tilting lower again. Some gains in Southeast Asia ahead of key central bank decisions. US futures mixed, Europe opened lower. US dollar stronger in response to a weakening in the pound, NZD weakest in Asia, little movement elsewhere. Treasuries mixed. Crude futures finding a base with WTI near $71 per barrel, Brent at $74.5. Precious metals higher, base metals fluctuating.

    • China markets finding a base Wednesday to follow several sharp corrections this week. Nevertheless, volatility remains elevated as markets attempt to find their range post extensive monetary easing, disappointment over a lack of a figure in fiscal stimulus, and promises from the housing ministry for a briefing on support measures Thursday. Today, Hong Kong eased mortgage rules, which gave a boost to the hang Seng's developers and REITs. Economists continue to lean positive on China measures announced to date but markets turning more cautious, leading to elevated volatility.

    • In other macro developments, New Zealand inflation fell inside RBNZ's 1-3% target range for first time since early 2021 as expected. Japan core machinery orders unexpectedly shrunk while South Korean unemployment rate rose by less than forecast. Bank of Thailand surprised by cutting base interest rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, Bank Indonesia kept rates on hold as expected, Philippines central bank cut by 25 bps, also as expected.

    • Artisan Partners Asset Management has urged Seven & I's (3382.JP) to grant Alimentation Couche-Tard due diligence access. Tokyo Metro (9023.JP) raised ¥348.6B ($2.3B) in its IPO after its shares were priced at ¥1,200 each, near the top of its guidance. Sun Art Retail (6808.HK) said it had received an approach letter regarding the possible acquisition of all its shares; stock substantially higher. Adani Green Energy (541450.IN) cancelled its plans for a US-dollar denominated bond issuance after investors placed bids at yields higher than the company was willing to pay, according to media reports.

  • Digest:

    • BOJ's Adachi stresses policy adjustments must be very gradual:

      • In a speech, BOJ board member Adachi responded to skepticism towards rate hikes based on arguments the timing is too early and poses the risk of a relapse into deflation. First, declared the pre-requisite conditions to begin normalization have already been met, citing the breadth of items undergoing price increases and price levels have surpassed the peak compared to the pre-deflation era. Expressed most sympathy for the 'deflation relapse' argument, stressing that drastic policy changes should be avoided. Underlined his basic stance that policy normalization process should be gradual. Highlighted the key focus under such an approach is that rates hikes are implemented at an extremely gradual pace while maintaining accommodative financial environment until underlying inflation reaches the 2% target in a sustainable manner. Explained that commencing normalization before the inflation target is reach is justified because rate hikes need to be sharper if they wait until after the condition is met, risking economic shocks. Noted that accommodation is reflected in the real rate running below the natural rate. Yet, echoed Governor Ueda's prior remarks noting the wide range of natural rate estimates and recommended taking the most conservative calculations. Also added that amid outlook uncertainties, BOJ will ultimately confirm neutral rate has been reached when underlying inflation has stably achieved target, acknowledging the neutral rate level and timeframe cannot be forecasted.

    • Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cuts base interest rate by 25 bps:

      • Bank of Thailand cut its overnight repo rate 25 bps to 2.25% against expectations for a hold. MPC voted 5-2 in favor of cut, which was in line with government calls for easing to revive economic growth especially with consumers. Bank said cut will help easing household debt burden while two dissenters wanted to keep rate unchanged to support long-term financial stability. Bank also raised FY2024 economic growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.6% but lowered FY 2025 FY growth to 2.9% from 3.0%; cut inflation target to 0.5% from 0.6%, below existing 1-3% target. Surprise decision in contrast to economists' forecast of cut only in Q1-25 however government pushed for easing now to support consumer and aid export base, which has languished regional peers amid strong baht. Governor Sethaput regularly pushed back against government pressure to ease, saying crucial for bank to maintain independence.

    • Bank Indonesia holds rates steady while Philippines central bank cuts:

      • Bank Indonesia (BI) held 7D reverse repo rate steady at 6.0%, in line with majority analysts' expectations. Comes after bank surprised with 25 bps cut in September just before Fed's 50 bps easing with some expectations it would cut 25 bps again this week. However, since then, economists noted US economic data weakened, markets more volatile leading to 2.2% correction in rupiah, diminishing chances of a second cut. BI said it would look for scope to lower rate further while watching inflation. Bangko Sentral ng Philipinas (BSP) cut its target reverse repo rate 25 bps to 6.0% as expected, follows Governor Eli Remolona's comments early October that flagged quarter-point cuts at each meeting until end 2025. BSP also lowered FY 2024 inflation forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% but marginally raised projections for FY 2025 and 2026. Said balance of risks in economy shifted to upside thanks to electricity rates, higher minimum wages outside Manila.

    • BofA Asia FMS confirms sharp bullish sentiment shift on China:

      • BofA Asia FMS highlighted a big bullish shift in sentiment towards China following the stimulus announcements, taking the broader Asia outlook to the top quintile for the first time in 20 months. Some 90% of respondents now look for higher APAC ex-Japan returns one year out. Investor confidence in China restored to the extent they are no longer looking for opportunities elsewhere amid unanimous easing expectations likely to mobilize household savings into discretionary spending and investment. However, caveat was recent stock rally has sapped short-term upside. Net allocations still showed China 3% underweight albeit a major improvement from 43% in July. This came at the expense of India, which saw net allocations fading sharply to 0% from 32% in July. Regional rankings based on net allocations still showed Japan the clear favorite (58% overweight), well ahead of Taiwan, Indonesia and Philippines. India now fourth and China seventh. China internet, AI/semis, SOEs, travel/leisure were the most popular sector plays. Infrastructure, consumption and IT favored in India. Japan perceptions showed a notable increase in the proportion viewing Topix FY24 corporate guidance as conservative (67% from 45%). Banks and semis remained the top two favorite sectors. BOJ rate hike expectations saw a big shift from 2H24 to 1Q25.

    • New Zealand inflation returns to RBNZ's 1-3% target for first time since early 2021:

      • New Zealand inflation fell to an in-line 2.2% y/y in Q3 from 3.3% in Q2, first time inside RBNZ's 1-3% target band since early 2021. Also just below RBNZ's 2.3% forecast. On a q/q basis inflation rose to 0.6% from 0.4%, less than 0.7% forecast. Tradables prices shrunk 1.6% y/y amid falls in fuel and vegetable prices. However, also signs sticky domestic pricing pressures beginning to ease with non-tradables inflation falling to 4.9% from 5.4%, lowest in three years and below RBNZ's 5.1% forecast in August. Driven by falls in childhood education and domestic air transport, offsetting still elevated rents and insurance costs. CPI outcome seen reinforcing expectations of a follow-up RBNZ 50 bp rate cut in November. Economists have flagged risk of labor market deteriorating more than expected and inflation undershooting RBNZ's 2% target midpoint amid still restrictive policy settings (OCR of 4.75% vs RBNZ's neutral rate estimate of 2.75%).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +16.2% 2726.JP (PAL GROUP Holdings): reports H1 revenue ¥101.26B vs guidance ¥99.21B, operating income ¥11.81B vs guidance ¥9.18B

      • +11.7% 6808.HK (Sun Art Retail Group): receives approach letter from potential offeror for all shares of company; Sun Art Retail Group guides H1 net income attributable CNY150-200M vs year-ago (CNY378M)

      • +5.1% 1339.HK (People's Insurance Co. (Group) of China): guides 9M net income attributable CNY33.83-37.93B vs year-ago CNY20.50B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.9% 3994.JP (Money Forward): reports Q3 revenue ¥9.81B vs FactSet ¥10.23B, EBITDA ¥412M vs FactSet ¥444.4M

      • -4.2% 601888.CH (China Tourism Group Duty Free): reports preliminary 9M net income attributable CNY3.92B, (25%) vs year-ago CNY5.21B

      • -2.8% 3382.JP (Seven & i): Artisan Partners International Value team urges Seven & i to grant Alimentation Couche-Tard due diligence access

      • -1.8% 9602.JP (Toho Co): reports H1 operating income ¥40.92B, +33% vs year-ago ¥30.75B, raises guidance; to acquire animation producer and distributor GKIDS; terms undisclosed

      • -1.6% 402340.KS (SK Square Co.): London-based activist investor Palliser Capital has reportedly taken a 1% stake in SK Square over two years

      • -1.4% 8233.JP (Takashimaya): reports H1; lowers FY revenue guidance

      • -0.8% 377300.KS (kakaopay): Kakao reportedly looking at acquiring BC Card subsidiary Smartro

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • August core machinery orders (1.9%) m/m vs consensus +0.1% and (0.1%) in prior month

      • New Zealand

        • Q3 CPI +0.6% q/q vs consensus +0.7% and +0.4% in Q2

          • CPI +2.2% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and +3.3% in Q2

      • South Korea

        • September unemployment rate 2.5% vs FactSet consensus 2.7% and 2.4% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (730.25) or (1.83%) to 39180.30

      • Hang Seng: (31.94) or (0.16%) to 20286.85

      • Shanghai Composite: 1.66 or +0.05% to 3202.95

      • Shenzhen Composite: (8.35) or (0.45%) to 1842.16

      • ASX200: (33.70) or (0.41%) to 8284.70

      • KOSPI: (23.09) or (0.88%) to 2610.36

      • SENSEX: (262.66) or (0.32%) to 81557.46

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.20 or +0.13% to 149.4110

      • $-KRW: (2.17) or (0.16%) to 1362.2700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.23%) to 0.6689

      • $-INR: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 84.0519

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.1172

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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