Oct 16 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open lower, with focus on luxury sector after big miss from industry bellwether LVMH overnight. Also today sees focus on UK inflation data.
Asian equities mixed Wednesday. Greater China markets swinging between gains and losses. Semis under pressure, weighing on Japan, Korean and Taiwan benchmarks. S&P 500 futures flat after US indexes finished lower in Tuesday trade.
On today's agenda, IEA publication of the World Energy Outlook. There's EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council summit participants include EU's von der Leyen and Borrell. In UK, after weekly PMQs at 12noon BST, there's a debate on a motion (topic tba) in the name of the Liberal Democrats, whilst committee topics include FCA and PRA's secondary competitiveness and growth objective (10:15). In the afternoon, Chancellor Scholz will make a government statement on the European Council in the German Bundestag, before going on in the evening to a ceremony to mark the 150th anniversary of Brenntag (BNR.GR), delivers a speech. Also, Germany's IfA industry summit (through Fri), EU's McGuinness speech on "Ireland and the European Union - past, present and future'' and Institute for Government event at 17:00BST title How can Keir Starmer ensure the centre of government works for the country?
In central banks, ECB's Buch lecture on banks profitability at 12:20CET at Bocconi Univ. and ECB's Lagarde speech at 20:40CET at event hosted by Slovenia's central bank.
Early macro focus in Europe on UK inflation data. Headline rate forecast to fall below BoE's 2% target. Data on Tuesday showed UK pay growth at the slowest in two years, underpinning expectations for a November BoE rate cut. Other macro releases include final Italian inflation. In other news, press reports UK Chancellor Reeves told cabinet she has identified a £40B funding gap ahead of 30-Oct budget, larger than previous communication. IMF warned unless the UK makes rapid efforts to stabilize debt it could face a market backlash.
In other developments, Media reports Brussels plans to expand power over merger deals to block firms that generate most of the revenue outside Europe. Trump repeated threat to impose punitive tariffs on Mexico and EU unless foreign auto manufacturers bring production to the US.
In earnings news, Focus on the luxury sector with Christian Dior (CDI.FP), Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER.IM) and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), reporting Q3/9M earnings update with the latter reporting disappointing Q3 revenue falling 3% on an organic basis for the first time since the Covid pandemic as demand in China lags. Elsewhere, ASML (ASML.NA) released earnings results unexpectedly early yesterday, disappointing investors as bookings missed, and FY25 sales guidance was lowered. Also, in The Netherlands, Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA) and NSI (NSI.NA) released a Q3 trading update.
In France, Rexel (RXL.FP) and Fnac Darty (FNAC.FP) are among others in the region that update investors with their latest numbers. In DACHs, Telekom Austria (TKA.AV), Tecan (TECN.SW) and Adidas (ADS.GR) issued Q3 updates with the latter also raising its FY24 guidance. In Southern Europe, Stellantis (TSLAM.IM) reported Q3 consolidated shipment estimates of ~1.15M units; (20%) y/y.
Politics/Macro/World News
Rachel Reeves tells cabinet UK still faces £100bn black hole over next five years - The Guardian
Wealthy non-doms lobby Rachel Reeves for Italian-style tax regime in UK - FT
Brussels seeks powers to block 'killer acquisitions' in Europe and beyond - FT
EU Readies Measures Against Possible Trump Tariffs - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DAHCHs
ADS.GR (Adidas) -- reports Q3 revenue €6.44B vs FactSet €6.38B [16 est, €5.89-6.60B]
TKA.AV (Telekom Austria) -- reports Q3 net income €178M vs year-ago €200M
AUTN.SW (Autoneum Holding) -- CMD: presents medium-term targets with planned revenue growth up to CHF 3B and EBIT margin of 6% to 8% over the cycle
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- reports preliminary Q3 EBIT €24M vs FactSet €23.8M [2 est, €16.7-30.8M]; confirms FY24 outlook
TECN.SW (Tecan) -- issues trading update: financial performance has fallen short of expectations across both divisions; adjusts FY24 guidance downward
France
MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) -- reports Q3 revenue €19.08B vs consensus €19.87B
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- Sep airport passenger traffic +6.6%
RXL.FP (Rexel) -- reports Q3 revenue €4.76B; up +2.1% y/y on reported basis and (2.1%) constant and same-day basis; lowers FY24 outlook
CDI.FP (Christian Dior) -- Christian Dior reports Q3 revenue €19.08B, (4%) vs year-ago €19.96B
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- reports prelim Q3 revenue €591M vs FactSet €615M [1 est]; says organic growth in Q3 is below expectations and does not expect significant rebound by end of the year
ALESK.FP (Esker) -- reports Q3 revenue €51.0M vs FactSet €50.7M [1 est]
FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty) -- reports 9M revenue €5.24B; (0.2%) L4L
Southern Europe
SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- reports 9M revenue €744M vs consensus €748.6M; sees FY operating result at lowest end of analysts' current estimates
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- reports Q3 consolidated shipment estimates of ~1.15M units; (20%) y/y
Nordics
NEL.NO (NEL ASA) -- reports Q3 net income (NOK115M) vs FactSet (NOK96.1M) [10 est, (NOK115)-(69.5M)]
SF.SS (Stillfront Group) -- expects lower EBITDAC in Q3 2024 mainly due to higher User Acquisition Costs
Benelux
NSI.NA (NSI NV) -- NSI Q3 Trading Update: EPRA EPS guidance for FY2024 raised to €1.95 - 2.0 vs consensus €1.95
TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com) -- Q3 2024 Trading Update: In the first nine months of 2024, the constant currency GTV growth excluding North America was 3% y/y
UK
BATS.LN (British American Tobacco) -- PLC is on track for FY24 guidance -- Capital Markets Day
Also due to report today includes
Earnings: Whitbread (WTB.LN), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), Dustin Group (DUST.SS), Exsitec Holding (EXS.SS), Olvi (OLVAS.FH), Vertu Motors (VTU.LN), Sanderson Design Group (SDG.LN), Groupe OKwind (ALKOW.FP)
Trading Update:
France: Gecina (GFC.FP), Lagardere (MMB.FP), Pullup Entertainment (ALPUL.FP), HighCo(HCO.FP)
Other: Bystronic (BYS.SW),
UK: Quilter (QLT.LN), Brooks MacDonald Group (BRK.LN), X5 Retail Group NV (FIVE.LN), Marshalls (MSLH.LN)
Production: Antofagasta (ANTO.LN)
CMD/events: Marston's (MARS.LN), Primary Health Properties (PHP.LN), SNAM (SRG.IM)
M&A
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- acquires production unit in Belgium
AXFO.SS (Axfood) -- Axfood's acquisition of City Gross approved by the Swedish Competition Authority
HKFOODS.FH (HKFoods) -- Danish Competition Authority approves Plukon Food Group's acquisition of HKFoods' Danish business
EMR Capital preparing to put Ravenswood gold mine up for sale - The Australian
Cipla, Alkem Laboratories leading contenders for controlling stake in Sahajanand Medical Technologies - Economic Times
Klarna selling most of UK BNPL portfolio to Elliott, terms undisclosed; deal will free up to £30B for new loans as it gears up for New York IPO - FT
Healthcare
FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care) -- reopens all its dialysis clinics in the regions affected by recent hurricanes
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- New data on Idorsia's aprocitentan to be presented at the ASN Kidney Week 2024
13.HK (Hutchmed) -- announces TAGRISSO plus ORPATHYS demonstrated high, clinically meaningful response rate in lung cancer patients
EAPI.FP (Euroapi) -- closes the financing of its FOCUS-27 plan
EAPI.FP (Euroapi) -- CFO Evelyne Nguyen to step down; appoints Olivier Falut as new CFO effective 17-Oct
FYB.GR (Formycon) -- Comparative evaluation of Formycon's FYB206, Keytruda published in Drugs in R&D
Other
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- said to be considering listing its North American unit in both the US and Switzerland -- Bloomberg
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin publishes global tire market data for Sep
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- US Department of Transportation penalizes Lufthansa $4M (€3.7M) for violating passengers' civil rights
SF.SS (Stillfront Group) -- CEO Jörgen Larsson steps down, appoints Alexis Bonte as interim CEO with immediate effect
022.GR (NextTrip) -- SEC filing: 10-Q
China Oriental Group, ArcelorMittal form upstream and downstream JVs
Energy Resources of Australia to resume entitlement offer with updated timetable; ex-date now 18-Oct
Regional Gaming Revenues - Massachusetts September 2024
Key rating changes
Upgrades
COV.FP (Covivio) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research (pre-open)
Downgrades
OR.FP (L'Oreal) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- to sell from hold at DnB Markets
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
BOL.SS (Boliden) -- to underweight from overweight at Barclays
Other Actions
INF.LN (Informa) -- resumed buy at Deutsche Numis; prior rating was buy
Data
Nikkei (1.81%) to 39187.23
Hang Seng +0.37% to 20394.49
Shanghai Composite (0.08%) to 3198.61
S&P futures +4.0 vs prior close of 5862.8
€-$ (0.0004) or (0.04%) to 1.0889
$-¥ +0.13 or +0.09% to 149.34
€-¥ +0.11 or +0.07% to 162.62
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