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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.57% to 8109.32, DAX (0.11%) to 19189.19, CAC40 +0.12% to 7278.23, STOXX 600 (0.06%) to 502.84

Nov 18 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed mixed Monday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 (0.1%) extending its five week losing streak. UK's FTSE 100 +0.6% was the main regional outperformer, while Italy's FTSE MIB (1.3%) the main laggard. Gold was up 1.9% after losing more than 4% last week. WTI crude up 3% after falling nearly 5% last week.

    • Quiet macro calendar in Europe today, leaving markets to key off external factors. Bond yield backup remains biggest overhang, tabbed to potentially inflationary Trump policies around tariffs, immigration, and fears around growing debt/deficits. Hawkish Fedspeak last week also adding to likelihood Fed could pause in December. Weekend focus on Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, which could influence tariffs and tax cuts. Uncertainty remains high in Europe.

    • Several ECB officials commenting on policy, though none have moved the dial on policy outlook. Policymakers appear comfortable with market pricing for another 25 bp rate cut in December. Vice President de Guindos effectively validated market view that focus has shifted away from worries over high inflation to growth concerns (econostream). Chief economist Lane said rate path has succeeded in engineering disinflation in a timely manner, but did not give a steer on December. Recently highlighted importance of not exaggerating impact of US developments on ECB. Irish central bank chief Makhlouf also sought to play down US impact and said it would need something "pretty overwhelming" to consider a 50 bps cut next month (Reuters). Greece's Stournaras signaled a 25 bp cut is a done deal and said there are going to be a number of cuts (Bloomberg). Sell-side expects ECB to stick with moves of 25 bps until there is more clarity on US tariff policy. Germany's Nagel said tariffs to upend trade ultimately to have only a minor impact on inflation (Reuters).UK macro data reinforcing likelihood of BoE waiting until February to cut rates again.

    • Among European sector moves today, Real Estate underperformed amid fresh rate cut path uncertainty. Tech another weak spot; focus is on AI bellwether NVDA quarterly results due Wednesday

    • On the corporate front, Rolls-Royce (RR.LN) evaluating commercial opportunities for its micro nuclear reactor, according to the FT. Enel (ENEL.IM) reaffirmed 2024 guidance; announced financial targets for 2025 and 2027 under new three year strategy (updated financial targets were seen broadly in line with consensus expectations, so no significant impact on estimates generally expected. The new plan is seen by some as more realistic than prior plan, incorporating data more inline with current markets). Brookfield is considering an offer of €10.5/shr to delist Grifols (GRF.SM). Melrose (MRO.LN) issued its 4M trading update this morning with revenue up +7% y/y and unchanged FY expectations. Said it expects to deliver substantial free cash flow in 2025 and will provide longer term financial targets for the period beyond 2025 at FY results on 6-Mar.

    • London's IPO outlook to take a positive turn in 2025 with Chinese-founded online fast-fashion giant Shein targeting early next year for its £50B float on the London market (London Times). Subject to regulatory approval, Shein is looking at a Q1 2025 IPO. UK media sources said retailer will hold investor roadshow in the coming weeks and understood to be working with Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley (CityAM). IPO has already won backing from Labour government despite some concerns over forced labor in its supply chain. The retail giant has pursued a London listing after the Chinese regulator warned it against a US IPO. The UK IPO pipeline has shown signs of improvement after a challenging period.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's session, earnings/updates due from the likes of Sonova (SOON.SW), thyssenkrupp (TKA.GR), and Imperial Brands (IMB.LN), whilst Nestle (NESN.SW), Symrise (SY1.GR), SGS (SGSN.SW), DNB (DNB.NO) and Caixabank (CABNK.SM) among those holding investor days/CMDs.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Basic Resources +0.50%, Telecom +0.41%, Financial Svcs +0.39%, Media +0.36%, Insurance +0.36%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.30%, Banks +0.13%, Energy+0.11%, Autos & Parts +0.04%

      • Underperformers:

        • Real Estate (1.59%), Retail (0.95%), Utilities (0.65%), Health Care (0.64%), Construct & Mtls (0.42%), Technology (0.38%), Chemicals (0.30%), Travel & Leisure (0.25%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.24%), Consumer Products and Services (0.17%)

    • Macro:

      • Geopolitics

        • Kremlin says Biden throwing 'oil on fire' by allowing Ukraine to use US missiles inside Russia - BBC

        • Sweden issues pamphlet telling citizens what to do if Russia attacks - POLITICO

      • UK

        • Keir Starmer promises better relations with China after Xi Jinping meeting - FT

        • UK creates new businesses at slowest rate since 2010 - Reuters

        • Average asking price for UK home drops by £5,000 in November - Guardian

      • Ireland

        • First televised leaders' debate of election campaign tonight - RTE

      • ECB speakers

        • ECB fears Trump tariff effect on growth more than on inflation - Reuters

        • ECB's Makhlouf: Premature to make decisions based on new U.S. administration - Reuters

      • Greece

        • Greece Plans to Repay €5 Billion of Long-Term Debt Early - Bloomberg

      • France

        • French farmers protest EU-Mercosur trade agreement - France24

      • Italy

        • Centre left set to win Emilia-Romagna, dead heat in Umbria - exit polls - ANSA

      • Germany

        • Conservatives Maintain Lead in Election Polling Average; Snap vote set for Feb. 23 - Bloomberg

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +12.2% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.10, +0.12) -- Umecrine Cognition presents Phase 1B/2a study interim data

        • +10.9% VIRI.FP (Viridien €40.17, +4.16) -- initiated buy at Arctic Securities

        • +9.6% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK182.50, +16.20) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade

        • +7.6% MRO.LN (Melrose Industries £5.28, +0.37) -- 4M trading update

        • +6.9% SERI.IM (Seri Industrial €3.17, +0.19) -- framework agreement worth ~€101M with Power4Future

        • +5.9% FUR.NA (Fugro €16.93, +0.95) -- €50M buyback program

        • +5.9% SEA1.NO (Sea1 Offshore NOK27.60, +1.55) -- initiated buy at Arctic Securities

        • +4.9% ENC.SM (ENCE Energia y Celulosa €2.95, +0.14) -- Jefferies upgrade

        • +4.6% NLFSK.DC (Nilfisk Holding DKK111.80, +5.00) -- SEB upgrade

        • +4.3% POLR.LN (Polar Capital Holdings £5.41, +0.22) -- H1 earnings

        • +3.8% VK.FP (Vallourec €16.79, +0.62) -- CIC Market Solutions upgrade

        • +1.7% AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood NOK98.40, +1.70) -- Fearnley upgrade

        • +1.6% SALM.NO (Salmar NOK570.00, +9.00) -- Q3 earnings

        • +1.5% ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland €45.94, +0.68) -- UBS upgrade

      • Notable Decliners

        • -33.6% SYNT.SS (SyntheticMR SEK9.00, -4.34) -- Q3 earnings

        • -11.6% JDG.LN (Judges Scientific £83.50, -11.90) -- trading update

        • -6.6% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €0.79, -0.05) -- POSEIDON study data presentation

        • -5.4% STO3.GR (Sto €0.00, -6.40) -- adjusts and lowers its FY24 guidance on turnover and earnings

        • -4.0% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €0.00, -1.51) -- determines price range for IPO of Talabat Holding at ~ $0.41 to $0.44 per share

        • -2.4% TPEIR.GA (Piraeus Financial Holdings €3.66, -0.09) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade

        • -2.1% GRF.SM (Grifols €10.71, -0.23) -- Brookfield is considering an offer of €10.5 per share to delist Grifols - El Confidencial

        • -1.8% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.11, -0.00) -- extends existing forbearance agreement

        • -1.7% IQE.LN (IQE £0.09, -0.00) -- FY trading update

        • -0.6% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK259.25, -1.50) -- DnB Markets downgrade

        • -0.5% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.08, -0.00) -- 2025 strategic outlook

        • -0.4% ELM.LN (Elementis £1.39, -0.01) -- CEO to step down

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: Greenyard (GREEN.BB)

        • DACHs: Sonova (SOON.SW), thyssenkrupp (TKA.GR), Sto & Co. (STO3.GR), M1 Kliniken (M12.GR), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), technotrans (TTR1.GR)

        • Nordics: Synsam (SYNSAM.SS), Maha Energy (MAHA.A.SS), MasOval (MAS.NO), Edda Wind (EWIND.NO), AMSC (AMSC.NO), Integrated Wind Solutions (IWS.NO), H+H International (HH.DC)

        • Southern Europe: eDreams ODIGEO (EDR.SM)

        • UK: Imperial Brands (IMB.LN), Diploma (DPLM.LN), GB Group (GBG.LN), Avon Technologies (AVON.LN), Trifast (TRI.LN), Calnex Solutions (CLX.LN), Manolete Partners (MANO.LN), CML Microsystems (CML.LN), Gear4music (G4M.LN), Revolution Beauty Group (REVB.LN)

      • Trading Update: Mota-Engil (EGL.PL)

      • Traffic: VINCI (DG.FP)

      • CMD/events: Nestle (NESN.SW), SGS (SGSN.SW) (day 1), Vivendi (VIV.FP) Havas, webcast on Havas web site, CaixaBank (CABK.SM), Endesa (ELE.SM), Symrise (SY1.GR), Marshalls (MSLH.LN), DNB (DNB.NO), Schibsted (SCHB.NO) Marketplaces business, Embracer Group (EMBRAC.B.SS), FNM (FNM.IM)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Spain Sep Trade Balance (€3.3B) vs consensus (€5.5B) and prior (€4.8B)

      • Eurozone Sep Trade Balance €12.5B vs consensus €7.9B and prior €4.6B

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Dec 24): +$2.07 or +3.09% to $69.09

      • €-$ +0.0037 or +0.35% to 1.0571

      • £-$ +0.0030 or +0.24% to 1.2651

      • €-£ +0.0013 to 0.8359

      • S&P 500 +0.60%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +4.86%

        • DAX: +14.55%

        • CAC: (3.51%)

        • MIB: +11.11%

        • Stoxx 600: +4.98%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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