Dec 11 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised to open higher Thursday. Futures in Japan traded sharply firmer, followed by moderate gains in Australia while Hong Kong was steady. Japan ADRs all logged gains though Golden Dragon China index declined. US contracts lower after major benchmarks outside of Dow advanced. Tech leads were notably positive as Nasdaq reached fresh highs, well ahead of S&P 500, SOX rallied with Big Tech a notable driver. Treasuries weakened for the third straight session with curve steepening. Dollar index was up 0.3%. Gold finished up 1.4%. Bitcoin futures were up 5.3%, moving back above $100K. WTI crude settled up 2.5%.
US CPI was largely in line, further galvanizing Fed rate cut expectations next week with market-implied odds near 95%. Debate on 2025 outlook uncertainties deferred for now. Tech strength attracted most of the attention after tame inflation data encouraged recovery in risk appetite (rotation out of defensives, stable VIX). Oil was another notable theme. OPEC further downgraded demand projections after extending output cuts. New round of EU sanctions on Russia also prompted output concerns.
In regional developments, key post-close headlines included a report that China may allow yuan to weaken next year to counteract higher US import tariffs and supplement broader stimulus measures. Also consistent with Politburo signals of a looser monetary policy stance. This would mark a significant deviation from the longstanding emphasis on FX stability. China market caution/limited Politburo impacts continued attract attention amid the start of CEWC proceedings. Higher bar for positive surprise seen reflecting wait-and-see approach as investors hold out for policy specifics, which likely won't be revealed until the 'Two Sessions' early next year.
Elsewhere, press sources suggested BOJ officials see low cost in remaining patient on rate hikes while not ruling out a move next week. Article did not gain traction locally, though rate markets have already retreated notably from December rate hike calls as OIS-implied probability dropped to ~30% this week from a peak of above 60%. Yet, market caution towards a December move sustained by stability in recent macro data with inflation holding up. Increasing attention on surging rice prices, though discussions have yet to point to direct BOJ implications. Macro calendar light on risk events. Australia employment expected to come in stronger though with jobless rate edging up. India inflation seen softer, industrial production firmer.
Pre-open Company News:
600276.CH -- NMPA approves Hengrui Pharmaceuticals's HRS-4729 for obesity, overweight
512.HK -- Grand Pharmaceutical Group obtains exclusive rights for OC-1 varenicline tartrate nasal spray and OC-02 (Simpinicline) nasal spray in Greater China from Corxel Pharmaceuticals
2343.HK -- Pacific Basin Shipping completes up to $40M share buyback announced in April
600219.CH -- Shandong Nanshan Aluminum to launch CNY300-600M buyback at not more than CNY6.24/share
2601.HK -- China Pacific Insurance (Group) reports 1-Jan to 30-Nov premium income
1958.HK -- BAIC Motor, Hyundai Motor to each inject $547.7M in two installments into 50-50 JV Beijing Hyundai
540611.IN -- AU Small Finance Bank initiated buy at LKP Securities
Hong Kong stock connect daily turnover
000883.CH -- Hubei Energy Group reports November power generation 3.19B KWh, +17.8% y/y
603288.CH -- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food board resolves to list in Hong Kong
AWK.SP -- Fuxing China Group sells Jinjiang Jianxin Weaving for CNY8.8M (S$1.6M) cash
MNKD -- CDSCO Approves Afrezza (insulin human) Inhalation Powder in India
YiChang HEC ChangJiang take-private offeror Sunshine Lake Pharma files for Hong Kong IPO through CICC
On Deck:
Japan:
Earnings:
Token Corp (1766.JP), Visional (4194.JP), Mitsui High-tec (6966.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Unemployment Rate; consensus 4.2%
11:30 AEST: Employment SA; consensus +22.5K
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 25): ($3.90) or (0.14%) to $2752.80
WTI Crude (Jan 25): +$0.06 or +0.09% to $70.35
$-¥: +0.35 or +0.23% to 152.3210
$-KRW: (9.28) or (0.65%) to 1426.6000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.05% to 0.6380
$-INR: (0.04) or (0.04%) to 84.8469
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.16% to 7.2614
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