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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.12% to 8311.76, DAX +0.13% to 20426.27, CAC40 (0.03%) to 7420.94, STOXX 600 (0.14%) to 519.20

Dec 12 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets finished mixed. Auto/Parts and Food/Beverage the best performers, while Basic Resources and Retail underperform. US equities lower in midday trading, though downside fairly limited. Dollar mixed. Underperforming versus Swiss franc after outsized SNB rate cut. Sterling also under pressure. Bonds softer. Treasuries weaker with curve steepening. Bund and OAT up 5 bps while Gilts up 8 bps. Oil down. Gold down around 2%. Industrial metals lower.

    • Focus today was on ECB and SNB policy decisions. ECB cut rates by 25 bps, as expected. ECB dropped reference to maintain restrictive policy from statement, in line with sell-side previews. Will follow data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach and not pre-committing to particular rate path. SNB surprised with a 50 bps move, exceeding the 25 bp cut forecasted by most economists, and cut its inflation forecasts. Said without today's rate cut, conditional inflation forecast would have been lower. In Germany, the Ifo Institute expects growth to recover next year, though strength of rebound will depend on government policy. However, Kiel Institute sees further stagnation. Macroeconomics data releases were light today with Sweden Nov CPI in at +1.6% y/y vs prelim +1.6% and Ireland Nov CPI came in at (0.5%) m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +0.3%.

    • On the reporting front, out of DACHs, HENSOLDT (HAG.GR) confirmed FY24 outlook, raised parts of its medium-term target and presented new growth strategy at CMD. Helvetia Holding (HELN.SW) issued financial targets for 2025-2027 during CMD. Leonteq (LEON.SW) released 11M business update revising guidance and now expecting FY24 PBT to be in the single digit millions. In France, Sopra Steria Group (SOP.FP) updated on 2028 goals ahead of CMD, including to exceed €7B in revenue, driven by organic growth of between +2-5% per year post-2025. Out of the Nordics, Dometic Group (DOM.SS) announced global restructuring program; will explore divestment opportunities and/or will discontinue non-strategic businesses. Among stock movers in the UK, Currys (CURY.LN) reported better-than-expected H1 earnings. Staffing stocks seeing pressure after SThree (STEM.LN) warned on profits for FY25. HAS.LN and PAGE.LN down in sympathy. De La Rue (DLAR.LN) reported H1 numbers with sales (10%) y/y. Further in the afternoon, company confirmed discussions with Disruptive Capital GP Limited and Pension SuperFund Capital entities, following recent press speculation, regarding proposal to take possible equity stake in business.

    • Further in M&A, Italian Competition Authority clears Banco BPM Vita's acquisition of Anima Holding SpA (ANIM.IM). Media reports Sidenor maintains €4/sh offer to acquire 29.9% of Talgo (TLGO.SM).

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Autos & Parts +0.72%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.33%, Consumer Products and Services +0.30%, Banks +0.26%, Telecom +0.20%, Technology +0.15%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.12%, Media (0.05%), Real Estate (0.06%), Utilities (0.12%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Basic Resources (1.62%), Retail (1.16%), Insurance (0.76%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.58%), Oil & Gas(0.40%), Construct & Mtls (0.37%), Chemicals (0.29%), Health Care (0.21%), Financial Svcs (0.20%)

    • Macro:

      • Central Banks:

        • ECB cuts its key deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.00%; decision in line with expectations

        • SNB cuts its key policy rate by 50 bp to 0.50%; markets were pricing in a 25bp cut

        • Lagarde says ECB nearer inflation goal, work not done (Bloomberg )

      • UK:

        • UK government plans to cut over 10,000 civil service jobs in cost-saving drive (Bloomberg)

        • UK government announces ambitious planning reforms to boost housing supply (Reuters)

        • UK considers record-breaking renewable energy subsidy auction to meet 2030 clean power target (FT)

        • FCA unveils proposal to boost pension support for millions of savers (Reuters)

        • Ofgem proposes reforms to tackle soaring energy debts and introduce standing charge-free tariffs (Reuters, Bloomberg)

      • France:

        • French economic outlook darkens amid political turmoil and budget uncertainty (Bloomberg)

        • LePen navigating chaos and electability in French politics (Politico)

      • Germany:

        • Germany abandons major gas power plant expansion amid political gridlock (Bloomberg)

        • German election opinion polls - who's leading for 2025 (The Guardian )

      • EU-UK:

        • Starmer invited to first EU leaders' meeting since Brexit, signaling diplomatic reset (FT)

      • Geopolitics:

        • Tusk says no plans to send Polish troops to Ukraine in event of ceasefire (Reuters )

        • NATO considers raising defence spending target to 3% of GDP (FT)

        • Italy, UK and Japan will invest equally in next-gen fighter jet JV (Nikkei)

        • Finland blocks more Russian property acquisitions (Reuters )

    • Peripheral markets:

      • Italy:

        • Number of people in work up by 517,000 in Q3 year-on-year (ANSA )

      • Denmark:

        • Danish Central Bank seen lowering rate to mirror ECB, poll finds (Bloomberg )

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +52.9% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €0.00, -0.00) -- launch of Reserved Capital Increases

        • +17.3% CURY.LN (Currys £0.93, +0.14) -- H1 earnings

        • +12.5% RWS.LN (RWS Holdings £1.80, +0.20) -- FY earnings

        • +8.4% GRF.SM (Grifols €9.58, +0.75) -- private placement of Senior Secured Notes and Revolving Credit Facility extension

        • +8.4% HANZA.SS (HANZA AB SEK74.45, +5.80) -- acquires Leden Group

        • +8.0% BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli €106.10, +7.90) -- trading update

        • +7.6% DBV.FP (DBV Technologies €0.70, +0.05) -- confirms alignment with U.S. FDA on accelerated approval pathway for the Viaskin peanut patch in toddlers 1 - 3 years-old

        • +6.0% CARR.LN (Carr's Group £1.23, +0.07) -- FY earnings

        • +5.4% BOOT.LN (Henry Boot £2.36, +0.12) -- Hallam Land (Hallam) agrees sale of ~600 plots

        • +4.9% LONN.SW (Lonza Group CHF548.20, +25.80) -- presents "One Lonza" strategy, to focus on core CDMO business, exit CHI business

        • +4.0% CAU.LN (Centaur Media £0.23, +0.01) -- CEO to retire

        • +3.4% ATG.LN (Auction Technology Group £5.84, +0.19) -- TA Associates, Inc. to sell 15.3M shares in Auction Technology Group plc at a price of £5.50p/share

        • +2.9% BNN.GR (BRAIN Biotech €4.30, +0.12) -- updates its medium-term forecast

        • +2.8% SUBC.NO (Subsea 7 NOK177.00, +4.90) -- vessel reservation agreement for UK offshore wind farm; substantial contract for a subsea tieback development in US Gulf of Mexico

        • +2.3% DLAR.LN (De La Rue £1.12, +0.03) -- H1 earnings; Investec downgrade; confirms discussions with Disruptive Capital GP Limited and Pension SuperFund Capital entities regarding proposal to take possible equity stake in business

        • +2.1% SAV.LN (Savannah Resources £0.04, -0.00) -- project updates

        • +1.6% NCH2.GR (thyssenkrupp nucera €9.37, +0.15) -- alliance for the H2Med Southwestern Hydrogen Corridor

        • +1.5% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C. €5.52, +0.08) -- Pirelli's investment holding Camfin plans to increase stake in the company to 29.9% from 26.1% -- Reuters, citing il Messaggero

    • Notable Decliners

      • -26.6% STEM.LN (Sthree £2.65, -0.96) -- FY earnings; £20M buyback

      • -23.9% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK2.24, -0.71) -- Q2 earnings

      • -11.3% LEON.SW (Leonteq CHF20.90, -2.65) -- business update

      • -9.9% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €166.70, -18.30) -- CMD update

      • -6.5% AVCT.LN (Avacta Group £0.43, -0.03) -- trial update

      • -5.0% DOM.SS (Dometic Group SEK53.90, -2.85) -- global restructuring program

      • -3.4% NEM.GR (Nemetschek €95.45, -3.40) -- initiated underweight at JPMorgan

      • -2.5% PAF.LN (Pan African Resources $0.37, -0.01) -- operational update

      • -2.2% HELN.SW (Helvetia Holding CHF148.00, -3.40) -- CMD update

      • -2.2% SCR.FP (SCOR SE €23.50, -0.54) -- CMD update

      • -1.7% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK40.05, -0.70) -- trial update

      • -1.5% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.34, -0.01) -- Q4 earnings; new Chairman

      • -0.7% ST5.GR (STEICO €19.76, -0.14) -- guidance update

      • -0.5% BB.FP (Bic €61.30, -0.30) -- CEO to step down

  • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

    • Earnings: Fenix Outdoor International (FOI.B.SS)

    • CMD/events: Swiss Re (SREN.SW) Management Dialogue 2024, Munich Re (MUV2.GR) earnings outlook 2025, Note (NOTE.SS)

Data:

  • Economics:

    • Ireland Nov CPI +1.0% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and prior +0.7%; (0.5%) m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior +0.3%

      • EU Harmonised: +0.5% y/y vs preliminary +0.5%; (0.5%) m/m preliminary (0.5%)

    • Sweden Nov CPI +1.6% y/y vs preliminary +1.6%; +0.3% m/m vs preliminary +0.3%

  • Markets:

    • WTI Crude (Jan 25): ($1.08) or (1.54%) to $69.21

    • €-$ +0.0011 or +0.10% to 1.0507

    • £-$ (0.0043) or (0.34%) to 1.2709

    • €-£ +0.0035 to 0.8267

    • S&P 500 (0.19%)

    • Performance year-to-date

      • FTSE 100: +7.48%

      • DAX: +21.94%

      • CAC: (1.62%)

      • MIB: +14.95%

      • Stoxx 600: +8.39%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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