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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.14%) to 8300.33, DAX (0.10%) to 20405.92, CAC40 (0.15%) to 7409.57, STOXX 600 (0.53%) to 516.45

Dec 13 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equities ended mostly lower Friday, with Italy +0.1% and Austria +0.3% among only a few gainers, while Denmark (2.6%), Sweden (0.7%), Switzerland (0.2%) and the UK (0.1%) were among underperformers.

    • Market evaluating yesterday's ECB policy decision, which leaned dovish. Cut rates for third consecutive meeting and removed language on restrictive policy from statement. Policymakers keen to bring rates down to neutral rate as quickly as possible. However, Bloomberg sources said policymakers still see moves of 25 bp increments in Q1 2025 unless there is an emergency.

    • Meanwhile, China markets underwhelmed with economic conference readout, which contained few surprises. Flagged more proactive fiscal policy and reaffirmed looser monetary policy stance, but lack of specifics weighed.

    • French President Macron named centrist ally Bayrou as PM. Bayrou, longtime ally of Macron who supported his 2017 presidential campaign, appointed as new PM (BBC). Bayrou brings significant political experience, having previously served as Education Minister (1993-1997) and briefly as Justice Minister in 2017 before resigning due to a party funding investigation from which he was later cleared (LaTribune). Bayrou faces challenging task of building consensus in a deeply divided parliament. Citi had recently suggested a technical PM more conducive to the formation of a 'truce' government, whereas Macron went for a more "political" profile. Appointment received mixed reactions (SkyNews). Socialist leader Faure noted that while he respects Bayrou, the French people don't want continuity of Macron's policies. Socialist parliamentary leader Vallaud has ruled out Socialist participation in the government, while Green party leader Tondelier questions how Bayrou, being neither left-wing nor green, could avoid censure motion. Far-right leader LePen said Bayrou should listen to opposition parties to build a reasonable budget

    • In other news, Bundesbank cut German growth forecasts. On data front, Eurozone industrial production flat in latest reading. UK monthly activity data showed economy contracted for the second month running. Surveys show UK inflation expectations higher and consumer confidence remains weak. German trade data saw larger-than-expected drop in exports and fuelled narrowing in surplus.

    • Among European sectors, Insurance outperformed amid strength in reinsurers; Munich Re (MUV2.GR) announced positive 2025 profit outlook, guiding to €6B net income, 20% higher than last year's guidance and ahead of consensus. Swiss Re (SREN.SW) targets net income of over $4.4B for 2025, exceeding expectations; company aims for improved combined ratios in P&C reinsurance and Corporate Solutions, higher L&H profits, and $300M in cost savings by 2027; analysts suggest additional operational cost reductions seen as positive surprise, potentially boosting earnings through 2027; while L&H assumption review in Q4 2024 unexpected, maintained profit guidance for the segment seen reassuring. Stainless steel sector was under pressure following profit warning from Outokumpu (OUT1V.FH). In M&A, Crayon Group Holding (CRAYN.NO) confirms is in advanced discussions with SoftwareONE (SWON.SW) regarding acquisition of Crayon Group. In Healthcare space, Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) weighed.

    • Looking ahead to next week, German Chancellor Scholz faces a confidence vote. Also next week sees BOE interest rate decision (no change expected), the release of Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Dec flash manufacturing/services PMIs, Germany Dec ifo survey, and UK employment data.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Insurance +1.23%, Autos & Parts +0.53%, Banks +0.15%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.11%, Technology (0.16%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.19%), Retail (0.25%), Media (0.41%), Utilities (0.44%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Basic Resources (2.30%), Health Care (1.78%), Real Estate (1.27%), Chemicals (0.81%), Consumer Products and Services (0.77%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.70%), Financial Svcs (0.63%), Travel & Leisure (0.61%), Energy(0.55%), Construct & Mtls (0.55%)

    • Macro:

      • ECB speakers

        • ECB's Centeno sees further gradual rate easing in coming quarters -- Reuters

        • ECB Officials See More Cuts, With Villeroy Backing Market View -- Bloomberg

      • UK

        • UK Economy's Contraction Casts Doubt on Labour's Growth Vow -- Bloomberg

        • Bank of England's latest quarterly survey of public attitudes to inflation; median expectation for inflation five years ahead rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in August -- link

        • UK Nov NIESR monthly GDP tracker 0.0% vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.1% -- link

      • France

        • Macron appoints centrist ally François Bayrou as France's fourth prime minister in 2024 -- Le Monde

        • François Bayrou commands respect - but can he save France from crisis? -- BBC

      • Germany

        • Bundesbank's Forecast for Germany: economy struggling with persistent headwinds -- link

        • German central bank slashes growth outlook for 2025, 2026 -- DW

        • Investment expectations in Germany fall significantly, Ifo says -- Reuters

        • Former traffic light coalition partners have now approved planned tax relief worth billions -- Handelsblatt, Welt

      • Spain

        • Spanish headline inflation spike is no cause for concern -- ING Think.

      • Italy

        • Italy to grow by 0.5% in 2024 says Bank of Italy -- ANSA

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +104.5% WIHN.SW (WISeKey International Holding CHF0.00, +5.29) -- announces WISeSat satellite to launch with SpaceX on 14-Jan-25

        • +53.7% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK15.42, +5.39) -- board is of the view that Fraser Group's intended offer, if made, is not likely to be successful; update on the alternative rights issue and EGM notice

        • +19.5% NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals CHF9.06, +1.50) -- company and Eisai announce license agreement for evenamide in Japan and other Asian territories

        • +14.3% GCM.LN (GCM Resources £0.02, -0.00) -- extends MOU for Phulbari coal mine for 12 months to 6-Dec-25 under same terms

        • +9.7% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK147.10, +12.90) -- updates Q4 guidance; issues FY25 guidance

        • +9.4% PRIC.B.SS (Pricer SEK13.16, +1.14) -- obtains order worth ~ SEK 485M for expected deployment of 5M electronic shelf labels across Canada

        • +6.5% SOI.FP (SOITEC €87.00, +5.25) -- extends collaboration agreement with MIT's Microsystems Technology Laboratories

        • +6.1% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF6.48, +0.37) -- Crayon Group Holding confirms is in advanced discussions with company regarding acquisition

        • +5.6% MUV2.GR (Munich Re €515.00, +27.30) -- issues FY25 targets

        • +5.1% IVU.GR (IVU Traffic Technologies €0.00, +0.70) -- announces Mission Trail Capital Management, LLC (MTCM) acquires the share package from Daimler Buses and now holds a total of around 8% of all IVU shares

        • +4.8% OHLA.SM (Obrascon Huarte Lain €0.32, +0.01) -- approves 280M new shares capital increase without preferential subscription rights

        • +4.7% BONAV.B.SS (Bonava SEK8.49, +0.38) -- sells 63 rental apartments and starts production of a total of 128 housing units in Düsseldorf

        • +4.5% SREN.SW (Swiss Re CHF133.65, +5.75) -- issues FY25 targets

        • +3.1% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK12,050.00, +360.00) -- Maersk North America updates on ongoing ILA-USMX negotiations -- Nov update

        • +2.8% KBC.BB (KBC Group €73.12, +1.96) -- Barclays upgrade

        • +2.2% ILM1.GR (Medios €11.90, +0.26) -- specifies FY forecast

        • +2.0% STJ.LN (St. James's Place £9.15, +0.18) -- Deutsche Numis upgrade

        • +1.7% FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty €29.85, +0.50) -- Bernstein upgrade

        • +1.4% CWC.GR (CEWE Stiftung & Co €102.60, +1.40) -- initiated outperform at Oddo

        • +0.5% MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group €56.68, +0.27) -- Mercedes-Benz Group CEO calls for long-term support for electric cars -- Süddeutsche Zeitungx

      • Notable Decliners

        • -23.1% IPX.LN (Impax Asset Management Group £2.47, -0.76) -- St. James's Place Unit Trust terminates companuy's mandate to manage SRE

        • -16.5% MOZN.SW (mobilezone holding CHF12.00, -2.36) -- FY guidance

        • -12.4% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €2.94, -0.42) -- updates Q4 guidance

        • -9.8% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.24, -0.03) -- confirms is in preliminary discussions with Kosmos Energy Ltd regarding a possible all-share offer by Kosmos for the company

        • -9.5% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €10.11, -1.06) -- Berenberg downgrade

        • -3.9% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK0.00, -30.50) -- "Small number" of patients experienced vision loss in study of Novo's Ozempic -- Bloomberg

        • -3.6% DLAR.LN (De La Rue £1.08, -0.04) -- confirms discussions with Disruptive Capital GP Limited and Pension SuperFund Capital entities regarding proposal to take possible equity stake in business

        • -0.6% ADOC.FP (Adocia €7.14, -0.04) -- study update

        • -0.6% WRT1V.FH (Wartsila €0.00, -0.10) -- to divest its Automation, Navigation and Control System business to Solix; price undisclosed

    • EU companies reporting Monday:

      • Earnings: OVS (OVS.IM), Admie Holdings (ADMIE.GA), All for One Group (A1OS.GR)

      • Trading Update: H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Videndum (VID.LN)

      • CMD/events: Qiagen (QIA.GR), AB Science (AB.FP)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Finland Nov CPI +1.0% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior +1.1% (1:00ET)

      • Germany Oct Trade Balance €13.4B vs consensus €16.1B and prior €17.0B

      • Sweden Nov Unemployment Rate 7.4% vs consensus 7.8% and prior 7.8%

      • UK

        • Oct Visible Trade Balance (£18.97B) vs consensus (£15.5B) and prior (£16.32B)

        • Oct Industrial Production (0.7%) y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior (1.8%)

        • Oct Construction Output (0.7%) y/y vs consensus 0.0% and prior (0.4%)

      • France Nov CPI +1.3% m/m vs preliminary +1.3%; (0.1%) m/m vs preliminary (0.1%)

      • Spain Nov CPI +2.4% y/y vs preliminary +2.4%; +0.2% m/m vs preliminary +0.2%

      • Eurozone Oct Industrial Production (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.9%) and prior revised (2.2%) from (2.8%); 0.0% m/m vs consensus (0.1%) and prior revised (1.5%) from (2.0%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jan 25): +$0.94 or +1.34% to $70.96

      • €-$ +0.0035 or +0.34% to 1.0502

      • £-$ (0.0042) or (0.33%) to 1.2630

      • €-£ +0.0055 to 0.8314

      • S&P 500 (0.10%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +7.33%

        • DAX: +21.81%

        • CAC: (1.77%)

        • MIB: +14.95%

        • Stoxx 600: +7.82%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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