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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.12%, Hang Seng closed, Shanghai Composite +0.14% as of 03:10 ET

Dec 26 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher amid low volumes. Japan outperformed with strong gains as the yen remained weak post Ueda comments yesterday. Mainland China boards edged higher while there were small gains in Taiwan. Korea fell the most. Southeast Asia mixed. India trading flat. Hong Kong, Australia, Indonesia all closed for a holiday. US futures edged higher. Dollar stronger against Korean won, kiwi and Aussie, yen weaker as Ueda repeated cautious rate-hike remarks yesterday. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Crude oil and gold both higher. Bitcoin under pressure.

    • Japan's boards continue to benefit from the weak yen, which is hovering near five-month lows following Governor Ueda's comments Wednesday which merely repeated his cautious tone from last week. Meanwhile, PM Ishiba's cabinet is expected to approve a record initial budget on Friday for next fiscal year starting in April 2025 that will ramp up spending on defense and support for local economies. On Thursday, Japan's retail and tourism-related shares gained Thursday after Japan and China agreed to introduce more measures to promote travel between two countries following FM Iwaya's visit to Beijing.

    • In other developments, PBOC kept MLF rate unchanged as expected on Wednesday and had a net liquidity drain of CNY1.15T ($158B), the most since 2014, with analysts saying it wanted to hold back liquidity in the event of a ratchet higher in trade sanctions next year. PBOC also cited ample liquidity and has resorted to other tools recently to manage funding as MLF's importance wanes relative to 7D reverse repo rate. China revised up its 2023 GDP by 2.7% to CNY129.4T. Bank of Thailand expects inflation to stay within 1%-3% target range through 2026 with the governor saying band as appropriate and supportive of coutnry's growth potential. South Korea's main opposition party said it will introduce bill to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo and hold a vote on Friday. India has surpassed China as Asia's top market for company listings in 2024.

    • Activist investor Oasis said it had increased its equity stake in Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967.JP) from 7.5% to 10.1%. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) said it targets a doubling of ROE to 20% from current 11% estimate, said global production had fallen for a tenth consecutive month despite higher sales volume. Bain and KKR are reported to have bid more than $5B for Seven & i (3382.JP) non-core assets. JIP's bid was at lower end. Wuxi AppTec (2359.HK) said its subsidiaries have signed a deal with PE firm Altaris for sale of its cell and gene therapy manufacturing unit, WuXi Advanced Therapies, for undisclosed sum.

  • Digest:

    • PBOC keeps MLF rate unchanged as economists eye RRR cut:

      • PBOC left MLF rate unchanged as expected Wednesday. With CNY1.45T maturing that resulted in a net liquidity drain of CNY1.15T, fifth straight withdrawal and largest since 2014 (Bloomberg). PBOC again cited ample liquidity and has resorted to other tools recently to manage funding as MLF's importance wanes relative to 7D reverse repo rate. China Daily cited unnamed sources close to PBOC who said MLF is no longer indicative of policy intentions and economists anticipate China will lean more on outright reverse repos to replace MLF. In late November PBOC conducted CNY800B in outright reverse repos (3M tenor) and acquired further CNY200B of government bonds via OMOs (Reuters). With authorities pivoting to 'moderately loose' monetary policy stance in 2025, expectations remain for further rate cuts with some economists eying near-term RRR reduction, reflecting seasonal rise in cash demand ahead of Spring Festival, as well as upcoming government plans for large-scale bond issuance.

    • BOJ Governor Ueda flags rate hikes if economy and inflation improve, but timing uncertain:

      • Speaking Wednesday, BOJ Governor Ueda reiterated further rate hikes needed if economy and prices continue to improve. Said important to keep policy accommodative to ensure Japan does not return to deflationary environment, though at same time Ueda warned risk of inflation accelerating beyond 2% if central bank keeps rates too low. Repeated BOJ paying attention to domestic and external factors, particularly policies of incoming US administration and their impact on Japan's economy and prices. Upcoming wage talks another key short-term issue with BOJ keeping eye on how wage hikes by small and medium-sized firms evolve. Nothing really in Ueda's speech that swung market's rate hike expectations with OIS implying ~46% odds of January increase and 82% chance of March move (Bloomberg). Comes after Ueda's post-meeting press conference was widely perceived as dovish after he indicated lack of urgency to raise rates while his focus on 2025 shunto outcomes has tilted rate hike expectations towards March.

    • Japan government planning record ¥115.5T ($735B) budget:

      • Reuters cited draft budget showing Japan government planning record ¥115.5T ($735B) budget for fiscal year beginning April, up from this year's ¥112.6T budget. On Friday, Cabinet expected to sign off on budget submission to parliament for debate early next year. New bond issuance projected to fall to ¥28.6T from this year's initial ¥35.4T, first time figure has dropped below ¥30T in 17 years. Assumes 10Y yield rising to 2% from 1.9%, increasing debt servicing costs to ¥28.2T from ¥27T. Fall in issuance aided by ¥8.8T rise in tax revenue to record ¥78.4T, driven by growth in corporate profits. On Wednesday, government left unchanged FY25 GDP growth forecast of 1.2% (Jiji Press). Maintained its view for solid personal consumption, which was forecast to rise 1.3% amid stable inflation rate of 2.0%. However, government revised down FY24 GDP growth estimate to 0.4% from 0.7%, citing softer export demand from China, weaker consumption and capex.

    • Japan and China foreign ministers agree to promote tourism, discuss food imports:

      • Japan retail and tourism stocks strengthening Thursday with upside attributed in part to latest developments in China-Japan relations (Reuters, Bloomberg). Japan Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met China Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Wednesday. Two agreed to continue high-level discussions with Wang to visit Japan next year, marking first such visit by a China foreign minister in more than four years. Meeting also raised prospect of Japan and China holding security and economic dialogues. Following China's move to include Japan in visa-free travel, Japan will relax restrictions on tourist visas for Chinese citizens. Both also agreed to introduce measures aimed at promoting tourism between the two countries. Japan and China indicated readiness to begin discussions on resuming imports of Japanese beef and rice. While there was no agreement on China's ban on Japanese seafood imports implement on Aug-2023, Nikkei reported Monday China is weighing lifting the ban in H1 2025.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.3% 3086.JP (J. FRONT RETAILING): Earnings

      • +7.3% 4204.JP (Sekisui Chemical): To invest ¥314.5B in mass production of next-gen solar cells with new plant in Sakai

      • +6% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): Reportedly to target ROE of 20% for FY ending Mar-25

      • +4.6% 5E2.SP (Seatrium): Takes full ownership of FLNG Hilli for $90.2M

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -2.9% 603779.CH (Wei Long Grape Wine Co.): Actual controller Yan Pengfei under residential surveillance at a designated location

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Singapore

        • November Manufacturing Production NSA Y/Y +8.5% versus +1.2% in prior month

      • Japan

        • November services PPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +2.9% in prior month (25-Dec)

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 437.63 or +1.12% to 39568.06

      • Hang Seng: 0.00 or 0.00% to 20098.29

      • Shanghai Composite: 4.73 or +0.14% to 3398.08

      • Shenzhen Composite: 16.88 or +0.85% to 2010.96

      • ASX200: 0.00 or 0.00% to 8220.90

      • KOSPI: (10.85) or (0.44%) to 2429.67

      • SENSEX: 14.34 or +0.02% to 78487.21

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.19 or +0.12% to 157.3560

      • $-KRW: +6.76 or +0.46% to 1466.4100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 0.6233

      • $-INR: +0.08 or +0.09% to 85.2655

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.04% to 7.2982

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