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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.80%, Hang Seng (0.04%), Shanghai Composite +0.06% as of 03:10 ET

Dec 27 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Friday. Strong gains in Tokyo on economic data, weak yen. Mainland China edged a few points higher, Hong Kong was flat. Australia, India and Taiwan all higher, South Korea was sharply lower but off its trough by the close. Southeast Asia more mixed. US futures slightly lower, Europe opened with small losses. Dollar flat, more weakness in AUD, yen stabilized, rupee fell to another record low with sharp drop on end of year dollar demand. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields rose to more than one-month high. Crude futures unchanged, precious metals slightly lower, base metals higher.

    • Asia equities saw another positive day to round off a strong week, with notable gains in Japan for a second day on positive-leaning economic and inflation data; some reprieve for the yen today on warnings from finance minister on forex movement. Tokyo core inflation rose to highest since August although was largely a reflection of the phasing out of utility subsidies and came in a little below forecasts. December BOJ Summary of Opinions showed members split on timing of rate increase with several members saying conditions for a hike were falling into place. Retail sales grew by more than expected while industrial production fell back into contraction.

    • Elsewhere, China industrial profits contracted again but at a slower pace in November. South Korea business sentiment fell to pandemic-era lows, joining steep falls in consumer confidence; political turmoil blamed for the loss of confidence. Today, acting President Han was impeached by the National Assembly over his refusal to appoint of Constitutional Court judges in a simple majority vote.

    • Nidec Corp (6594.JP) launched a takeover offer for Makino Milling Machine (6135.JP) valuing the company at $1.6B. Nippon Steel (5401.JP) has extended its closing date for its purchase of US Steel, giving more time for President Biden to decide on whether to accept it. CATL (300750.CH) confirmed it was seeking a listing in Hong Kong.

  • Digest:

    • BOJ saw need to monitor wage outcomes, market and US policy developments:

      • December BOJ Summary of Opinions showed members saw no pressing need to tighten with BOJ in position to exercise patience and monitor uncertainties. Members noted decision to hike should focus on developments in wages, services prices, consumption, US economy and policy, and market developments. Stressed importance of examining wage developments ahead of 2025 shunto, adding that wage growth consistent with 2% can be expected at the talks. One noted need to assess situation surrounding new US administration with focus having shifted to upside risks than downside risks. While markets remains stable, one warned risk of large shock if exchange rate misalignment grows and such misalignment is then adjusted. Views on import inflation mixed with one noting import prices stable while another said rising import inflation likely to translate to underlying inflation and achievement of price stability target, necessitating preemptive tightening. Another noted BOJ in phase where it can reduce degree of accommodation to avoid having to tighten more aggressively in future.

    • South Korea acting President Han impeached as business confidence plummets:

      • South Korea's opposition-controlled National Assembly voted Friday to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo over refusal to appoint judges to Constitutional Court to adjudicate President Yoon's impeachment trial (Yonhap). Democratic Party had earlier also noted Han's own involvement in Yoon's martial law declaration, refusal to promulgate two special counsel bills to investigate Yoon (Yonhap). Parliament speaker said before vote Friday simple majority required to impeach Han, who will now be suspended from role, finance minister Choi assume role of acting president. Meanwhile, political turmoil weighed on business confidence December, which this month fell to lowest since Sep-2020, outlook for January also fell to pandemic-era low (Yonhap). Manufacturers said unfavorable business conditions, tight financial conditions behind fall and follows sharp dip in consumer confidence survey for December (Yonhap).

    • Tokyo core inflation rises amid subsidy phase-out, Japan industrial production shrinks:

      • Tokyo core CPI rose 2.4% y/y in December, slightly less than consensus 2.5% though up on November's 2.2% and highest since August. Ex-food and energy inflation unexpectedly eased to 1.8% from 1.9%, reflecting phasing out of power subsidies (though government set to launch another round of subsidies round from January). Overall CPI inflation climbed to 3.0% from 2.6%, higher than consensus 2.9%. Data viewed as consistent with BOJ's expectation that underlying inflation will be consistent with price stability target in second half of projection period. Governor Ueda reiterated further rate hikes on cards if economy and prices evolve as expected. Separate figures showed November industrial production shrunk 2.3% m/m following October's 2.8% increase, a touch better than consensus for a 3.5% fall. METI forecast 2.1% rebound in December. November retail sales grew 1.8% m/m, stronger than October's 0.1% increase and consensus for 0.5% gain. November unemployment rate unchanged as expected at 2.5%.

    • China industrial profits extend drop to fourth straight month, set for sharpest annual drop:

      • November's industrial profits declined 7.3% y/y, narrowing from 10.0% drop in prior month, which NBS said was due to higher prices and improving revenues despite high base effect. Still industrial profits extended declines to fourth straight month with YTD aggregates fell 4.7% in Jan-Nov, compared with 4.3% slide in Jan-Oct. Bloomberg noted data on track for steepest annual decline since records started in 2000. Noted results came after Beijing's stimulus blitz in late September and signaled measures have yet to meaningfully reverse fall in corporate earnings (CNBC), which have come under pressure as China grappling with weak domestic demand and its longest stretch of deflation since 1999. For November, NBS said revenues at industrial firms rose 0.5% y/y with YTD revenue growth at 1.8%. Highlighted advancement of high-end, intelligent and green manufacturing which saw rapid profit growth across related industries. Consumer goods manufacturing also posted growth, gaining 22.0% y/y in profits. Acknowledged industrial profits still in negative territory and will make efforts to implement policies set in CEWC.

    • Investors pile into China's dividend stocks, government bonds:

      • China's dividend stocks and government bonds have been chased by investors as 2024 draws to close. Bloomberg reported inflows into a pair of largest ETFs tracking dividend stocks have hit a record. Huatai PB CSI Bonus Low Fluctuation ETF and Huatai-PineBridge SSE Dividend Index ETF attracted flows of CNY4.4B ($603M) and CNY5B respectively in December, both at record highs, as they benefited from surge in dividend buying this year. Rush for these ETFs risks becoming overheated with several Hong Kong-listed ones being put on suspension triggered by fund premiums hitting 15% (TMTPost). Meanwhile another Bloomberg article noted CGBs are set for their best year in a decade with 9% total return with fund managers and strategists eyeing more gains in new year. 10Y CGB yield dropped more than 80 bp since January to below 1.70%. CGBs have outperformed global peers amid growing bets on monetary easing due to weak economic fundamentals and slowdown in consumer spending. Bond rally slowed down a bit this week on concerns over rise in debt issuance while some shifted to dividend stocks.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +7.8% 4521.JP (Kaken Pharmaceutical): signs deal to give Johnson & Johnson an exclusive license for the STAT6 program

      • +4.4% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): reportedly to build GPU cluster for AI models

      • +4.1% 6594.JP (Nidec): launches offer to acquire Makino Milling Machine at ¥11,000/share

      • +0.6% 6383.JP (Daifuku): completes up to 5.0M-share buyback

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -5.4% 544.SP (CSE Global): subsidiary commences legal proceedings in Texas against a customer for payment

      • -1.1% 3549.JP (Kusuri No Aoki Holdings): reports H1 net income attributable ¥8.62B vs guidance ¥9.04B and year-ago ¥3.42B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • December Tokyo core CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and +2.2% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +1.8% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and +1.9% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and +2.6% in prior month

        • November industrial production (2.3%) m/m vs consensus (3.5%) and revised +2.8% in prior month

          • METI survey projections +2.1% in December, +1.3% in January

        • November retail sales +1.8% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and +0.1% in prior month

          • Retail sales +2.8% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and revised +1.3% in prior month

        • November unemployment rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.5% and 2.5% in prior month

          • Job offers to applicants ratio 1.25 vs consensus 1.25 vs 1.25 in prior month

      • China

        • Jan-Nov industrial profits (4.7%) y/y vs (4.3%) in Jan-Oct

          • November industrial profits (7.3%) y/y vs (10.0%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 713.10 or +1.80% to 40281.16

      • Hang Seng: (7.83) or (0.04%) to 20090.46

      • Shanghai Composite: 2.07 or +0.06% to 3400.14

      • Shenzhen Composite: 4.00 or +0.20% to 2014.96

      • ASX200: 40.90 or +0.50% to 8261.80

      • KOSPI: (24.90) or (1.02%) to 2404.77

      • SENSEX: 331.13 or +0.42% to 78803.60

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.18) or (0.11%) to 157.8200

      • $-KRW: +5.61 or +0.38% to 1473.4200

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 0.6221

      • $-INR: +0.09 or +0.11% to 85.6975

      • $-CNY: 0.00 or 0.00% to 7.2983

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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