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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.09%) to 8241.90, DAX +0.66% to 20350.13, CAC40 +0.72% to 7498.97, STOXX 600 +0.35% to 514.82

Jan 07 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended in positive territory, except for FTSE and Denmark. Focus on macro developments: Eurozone inflation edged up in December to 2.4% versus prior 2.2%, as expected. Core inflation at 2.7% versus consensus 2.7% and prior, while services inflation at 4.0% versus 3.9%. While German and Spanish readings surprised on the upside, Italian and French update unchanged from prior month, below consensus. Data supports the likelihood of ECB easing at a gradual pace. Market pricing in four rate cuts totaling 100 bps by June. Economists split between those that think the ECB might be behind the curve due to increased growth risks and those endorsing gradual, incremental changes in policy. Supporting the ECB's current stance is surveys like the ECB consumer expectations edging up in December and PMIs showing increase in price pressures. However, activity remains weak and ECB research suggest factors that supported the labor market in last the couple of years may be weakening, which will give space for policymakers to reduce policy restriction more quickly. Some thoughts the ECB could still cut in larger increments than 25 bps if activity deteriorates further. In the UK, inflation risks are turning to the upside with the latest food price numbers showing price accelerated in November. An update from Kantar highlighted December inflation across supermarkets hit 3.7% versus prior 2.6%, which was the highest level since March. When taken together with the recent upturn in energy prices and the expansionary budget in October, inflation is likely to pick up further in the coming months. Against this backdrop, the BoE's recent update indicated the likelihood of a further rise in headline CPI. Household indicators, business surveys, wage growth levels and forward-looking PMIs have all pointed to underlying price pressures. This is likely to support the BoE's very cautious approach to policy easing. Market is pricing in a 50% chance for a February cut, though some sell-side economists think the BoE could wait a bit longer to cut rates again. Analysts split between forecasts for three or four rate cuts by the end of 2025. Furthermore, an update from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed so-called "golden quarter" failed to save 2024 trading for the sector. Total sales increased 0.7% y/y for 2024 overall and sales growth for the quarter was 0.4% y/y. December, coupled with the Black Friday week at the end of November, delivered a 3.2% y/y increase, but artificially improved comparison and underlying trend was weak

    • In corporate news, out of DACHs, Handelsblatt reported Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) likely to lower medium-term profit targets. Further in the press, Helvetia (HELN.SW) is exploring sale of loss-making German insurance operations and Julius Baer Group (BAER.SW) confirms it is to sell its domestic Brazilian business to BTG Pactual (BPAC3.BZ) following overnight media reports about deal agreement. KION Group (KGX.GR) shares gained as much as +10% in early trading after group announced it was working with Accenture to optimize supply chains using NVIDIA's advanced AI and simulation technologies. Elmos Semiconductor (ELG.GR) also higher after group announced expansion of collaboration with Samsung Foundry this morning. In France, Sodexo (SW.FP) shares ended lower after posting Q1 sales and maintaining FY guidance. In the UK, Next (NXT.LN) shares up following Christmas trading update with 9 week to 28-Dec full price sales up +6.0% y/y and group also increased FY PBT guidance by +£5M to £1.01B. Coats Group (COA.LN) announced CFO Jackie Callaway will step down in May-25 and appointed Hill & Smith (HILS.LN) CFO Hannah Nichols as successor. In Benelux, InPost (INPST.NA), Aperam (APAM.NA), Sligro Food Group (SLIGR.NA) issued Q4 market updates

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Nordic names Dustin Group (DUST.SS) and Gabriel Holding (GABR.DC) are expected to report, whilst Pluxee (PLX.FP), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), GRENKE (GLJ.GR) and Topps Tiles (TPT.LN) will issue their most recent trading updates. On a busy macro-calendar, releases will include Eurozone Nov PPI and Dec Consumer Confidence, Sweden prelim Dec CPI, Germany Nov Factory Orders and Retail Sales, France Dec Consumer Confidence and Nov Trade Balance

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:Persnl & HHold Goods +0.81%, Oil & Gas +0.71%, Insurance +0.68%, Food & Beverage +0.65%, Financial Svcs +0.47%, Health Care +0.47%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.43%, Telecom +0.39%, Retail +0.38%, Technology +0.36%

      • Underperformers: Real Estate (0.70%), Construct & Mtls (0.42%), Basic Resources (0.31%), Utilities (0.25%), Banks (0.16%), Travel & Leisure +0.05%, Media +0.11%, Autos & Parts +0.20%, Chemicals +0.33%

    • Macro:

      • German Dream of Becoming a Global Chip Superpower Is Fading Fast (BBG)

      • Macron accused of 'contempt' over Africa remarks (BBC)

      • Elon Musk has designs on the whole of Europe (NS)

      • SpaceX accord would be great, Musk tells Salvini (Ansa)

      • Musk or no Musk, Farage has a plan to capture Britain (Politico)

      • Highest UK Debt Costs Since 1998 Risk More Labour Tax Hikes (BBG)

      • Austria's polarising far-right leader bids to become chancellor (Reuters)

      • Ukrainian soldiers desert brigade while training in France (Times)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +29.4% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK14.24, +3.24) -- fully underwritten rights issue of NOK 600M; Q4 trading update

        • +21.6% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards SEK0.04, +0.01) -- licenses iris recognition technology to Smart Eye for up to SEK 50M

        • +19.7% KURN.SW (Kuros Biosciences CHF24.95, +4.10) -- exclusive strategic agreement with the Medtronic spinal division

        • +9.9% KGX.GR (Kion Group €35.10, +3.17) -- teams with NVIDIA and Accenture to optimize supply chains with AI-powered robots and digital twins

        • +8.7% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK25.45, +2.04) -- Dec car sales

        • +5.6% BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio NOK9.24, +0.49) -- trial update

        • +4.0% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon SEK109.65, +4.25) -- to acquire Septentrio

        • +3.9% NXT.LN (Next £99.28, +3.74) -- trading update

        • +3.6% FAGR.BB (Fagron €17.04, +0.60) -- acquisition

        • +3.3% ELG.GR (Elmos Semiconductor €77.70, +2.50) -- expansion of collaboration with Samsung Foundry

        • +2.1% MATAS.DC (Matas DKK137.20, +2.80) -- trading update; raises FY guidance

        • +1.8% DMYD.B.SS (Diamyd Medical SEK18.32, +0.32) -- journal publication

        • +1.7% METSO.FH (Metso Corp. €9.03, +0.15) -- receives large filtration equipment order from India

        • +0.6% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK276.90, +1.60) -- Dec trading update

        • +0.3% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.51, -0.00) -- Q4 production

      • Notable Decliners

        • -9.5% ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain £0.05, -0.01) -- Dec operational update

        • -7.5% SW.FP (Sodexo €73.25, -5.95) -- Q1 sales

        • -2.5% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £2.27, -0.06) -- interim CEO to become permanent CEO

        • -2.5% SLIGR.NA (Sligro Food Group €11.06, -0.28) -- prelim Q4 revenue

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: Dustin Group (DUST.SS), Gabriel Holding (GABR.DC)

      • Trading Update: Pluxee (PLX.FP), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone

        • Nov Unemployment Rate 6.3% vs consensus 6.4% and prior 6.3%

        • Dec Preliminary CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and prior +2.2%

      • France Dec Preliminary CPI +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +1.3%

      • Italy

        • Nov Unemployment Rate 5.7% vs consensus 5.8% and prior 5.8%

        • Dec Preliminary CPI +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +1.3%

      • UK Dec Halifax House Price Index +3.3% y/y vs consensus +4.6% and prior revised +4.7% from +4.8%

      • Germany Dec Construction PMI 37.8 vs consensus 37.8 and prior 38

      • Denmark Nov Unemployment Rate 2.6% vs consensus 2.6% and prior 2.6%

      • Norway Nov Manufacturing Production +1.1% m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior (1.6%)

      • Sweden Dec Services PMI 51.4 vs consensus 51.5 and prior revised 51.0 from 50.9

      • Switzerland Dec CPI +0.6% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior +0.7%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 25): +$0.73 or +0.99% to $74.29

      • €-$ (0.0022) or (0.21%) to 1.0370

      • £-$ (0.0031) or (0.25%) to 1.2490

      • €-£ +0.0003 to 0.8302

      • S&P 500 (0.40%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.84%

        • DAX: +2.22%

        • CAC: +1.60%

        • MIB: +2.22%

        • Stoxx 600: +1.42%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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