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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.78%) to 8498.73, DAX (0.12%) to 21385.62, CAC40 +0.44% to 7927.66, STOXX 600 (0.07%) to 529.96

Jan 24 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended mixed, following a positive opening. In central bank news, inflation concerns challenging ECB's planned rate cuts for 2025, based on Bloomberg survey. While economists still expect four quarter-point reductions, views diverging about timing and extent of cuts. Current consensus supports rate cuts in Jan and Mar, but uncertainty grows from April onwards. Sticky services inflation, robust labor market, and potential trade war threats shifted analysts' perspectives, with most now believing risk of overshooting 2% inflation target outweighs falling short. ~71% of economists place neutral interest rate 2%-2.25%, with most anticipating this level by June. US policy and potential economic disruptions remain significant risks. Analysis contrasts with views from traders and investment banks. Traders bet a 50bps move will appear this year. Most investment banks see scope for more ECB easing than markets currently discount, with Barclays most recently suggesting 150bps of easing in 2025 citing need to balance inflation stabilization with growth concerns. Former ECB member Angeloni suggested ECB should adopt a more forward-looking approach, clarifying view on "new normal" interest rate level, which may involve reviving inflation forecasting models and considering stronger policy response to deviations from 2% target

    • On the macro-front, Markit reported that HCOB Eurozone prelim Composite PMI for Jan rose to 50.2 versus 49.7 expected, beating analyst previews. Lack of immediate tariffs from Trump may have been a positive factor. Manufacturing beat at 46.1 versus 45.4 expected, while remaining in 31st month of contraction. Services posted second month of expansion, but missed estimates at 51.4 versus 51.5 expected. Employment nearly stabilized, with service sector job gains nearly offsetting manufacturing losses. However, firms not expecting imminent big upswing in activity. Input costs posted 21-month high, leading companies to increase selling prices. International demand remained weak, with new export orders continuing to decline. In the UK, PMI also beat expectations with composite reading at three-month high but details downbeat with job losses at the fastest rate since GFC and inflation at 18-month high. UK GfK consumer confidence hit the lower level in over a year and fits in with other downbeat survey data. Update from business recovery specialist Begbies Traynor showed jump in number of UK firms in critical financial distress

    • In politics, ahead of Germany's 23-Feb election, polls show CDU/CSU at ~30% and AfD at ~20%. Coalition will require 40-48% of popular vote, with potential partners being the SPD (16%) or Greens (14%). Election up until now focused on economy. Berenberg in recent note reiteratd Merz' proposed tax cuts, moderate deregulation, and welfare reforms to boost structural growth.. Bloomberg cited a French government document, which called for a major reworking of the European regulatory framework to boost competitiveness, starting with ESG rules. France wants a pause in the European regulatory process so recent legislation can be re-examined and revised to adapt to the next context of exacerbated international competition and to respond to uncooperative policies of main international competitors.

    • In M&A news, in an unexpected move, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.IM) launched an offer for Mediobanca (MB.IM), sending another shock wave through the Italian banking sector, following last year UniCredit's offer for BAMI and - earlier - Commerzbank; also, Merck KGaA (MRK.GR) is taking a cautious approach to M&A amid recovery in sales growth at its existing business. On the reporting front, Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), Givaudan (GIVN.SW), Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO), Burberry Group (BRBY.LN) and Signify (LIGHT.NA) were among few other names issuing their most recent earnings, with the latter also announcing its CEO stepping down. Elsewhere, UK government awarded a £9B contract to support Royal Navy submarine fleet - involving Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.LN) - and Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) issued an Iron Ore update following Tropical Cyclone Sean; in Germany, MTU Aero Engines (MTX.GR) CFO stepped down

    • Looking ahead to next week's calendars (please see our StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: Jan 27-31 attached below for more details), ECB and Riksbank interest rate decisions will be in focus, with the Q4 preliminary GDPs and Jan preliminary CPIs from across the region and Germany Jan unemployment also to be released. Earnings will include ASML (ASML.NA), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), Novartis (NOVN.SW), Roche (ROG.SW), SAP (SAP.GR), Sanofi (SAN.FP) and Shell (SHEL.LN) among few other updates expected next week

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Basic Resources +1.25%, Autos & Parts +1.14%, Health Care +1.01%, Food & Beverage +0.69%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.51%, Chemicals +0.45%, Retail +0.10%, Travel & Leisure +0.01%

      • Underperformers: Telecom (2.80%), Oil & Gas (1.11%), Real Estate (0.80%), Utilities (0.71%), Financial Svcs (0.62%), Media (0.49%), Insurance (0.46%), Technology (0.35%), Banks (0.30%), Construct & Mtls (0.23%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.11%)

    • Macro:

      • EU to target AI, biotech, cheap energy in global competitiveness push (Reuters)

      • Germany's Trump problem (Politico)

      • France Calls for 'Massive' Regulatory Pause as Economy Flags (BBG)

      • UK businesses cut jobs at fastest pace since 2009 bar the pandemic, survey finds (FT)

      • Labour Contends With Flood of Bad Economic Data Since New Year (BBG)

      • MPS launches takeover bid for Mediobanca (Ansa)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +17.4% IQE.LN (IQE £0.16, +0.02) -- company and Quintessent partner on Quantum Dot for AI

        • +15.1% PKTM.SW (PIERER Mobility CHF17.94, +2.36) -- prelim FY earnings; new CEO

        • +9.4% BRBY.LN (Burberry Group £11.70, +1.01) -- Q3 trading update

        • +9.0% GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring NOK227.80, +18.80) -- Q4 earnings

        • +8.0% WRKS.LN (TheWorks.co.uk £0.21, +0.02) -- H1 eanrings; Singer Capital Markets upgrade

        • +7.4% REC.LN (Record £0.51, +0.04) -- Q3 trading update

        • +7.3% MB.IM (Mediobanca €16.40, +1.12) -- BMPS announces offer

        • +5.2% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo €7.34, +0.37) -- BRBY sympathy

        • +5.1% EMMN.SW (Emmi CHF786.00, +38.00) -- prelim FY revenue

        • +5.1% ITM.LN (ITM Power £0.36, +0.02) -- contract

        • +4.2% DGE.LN (Diageo £25.03, +1.01) -- reportedly undertaking review of brand portfolio -- Bloomberg

        • +2.7% QLINEA.SS (Q-linea SEK0.30, +0.01) -- contract

        • +1.6% ORES.SS (Investment AB Öresund SEK115.80, +1.80) -- FY earnings

        • +1.4% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €730.30, +10.20) -- BRBY sympathy

        • +1.3% SIKA.SW (Sika Group CHF231.50, +2.90) -- UK's CMA decides to close the investigation in relation to the supply of chemicals for use in the construction industry on administrative priority grounds

        • +1.1% RIO.LN (Rio Tinto $50.00, +0.52) -- provides Iron Ore update following Tropical Cyclone Sean

        • +0.9% APAM.NA (Aperam €25.76, +0.22) -- completes Universal Stainless & Alloy Products acquisition

        • +0.8% AVOL.SW (Avolta CHF41.14, +0.34) -- launches its previously announced buyback

        • +0.8% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF171.40, +1.30) -- BRBY sympathy

        • +0.7% RMS.FP (Hermes €2,656.00, +18.00) -- BRBY sympathy

        • +0.5% UCG.IM (UniCredit €43.74, +0.23) -- Commerzbank CEO demanding written proposal from Unicredit as precondition for meeting Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel - FT

        • +0.3% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €144.80, +0.40) -- taking cautious approach to M&A amid recovery in sales growth at its existing business - Reuters

        • +0.3% SK.FP (SEB €91.20, +0.30) -- prelim Q4 revenue

      • Notable Decliners

        • -43.0% STLN.SW (Swiss Steel Holding CHF2.17, -1.64) -- intends to voluntary delist from the Swiss stock exchange

        • -21.1% RNWH.LN (Renew Holdings £7.16, -1.92) -- FY trading update

        • -12.6% ERIC.B.SS (Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson SEK85.34, -12.34) -- Q4 earnings

        • -6.8% BMPS.IM (Monte dei Paschi di Siena €6.50, -0.48) -- offers to acquire Mediobanca in all share transaction

        • -6.1% MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines €328.70, -21.30) -- CFO to step down

        • -4.6% SFSN.SW (SFS Group CHF116.20, -5.60) -- prelim FY earnings

        • -3.6% GIVN.SW (Givaudan CHF3,799.00, -142.00) -- FY earnings

        • -1.2% STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics €24.29, -0.29) -- Texas Instruments (TXN) earnings sympathy

        • -0.8% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.08, -0.00) -- provides update on financial restructuring

        • -0.8% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £6.07, -0.05) -- UK government agrees £9B contract to support Royal Navy submarine fleet

        • -0.6% IFX.GR (Infineon Technologies €33.98, -0.22) -- Texas Instruments (TXN) earnings sympathy

        • -0.3% LIGHT.NA (Signify €22.68, -0.06) -- Q4 earnings; CEO to step down

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings: Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID), Stabilus (STM.GR), Note (NOTE.SS)

      • Trading Update: ID Logistics (IDL.FP), secunet Security Networks (YSN.GR), Lumibird (LBIRD.FP)

      • CMD/events: Airbus (AIR.FP) Helicopters, orders and deliveries 2024

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Flash Jan Manufacturing PMI

        • UK 48.2 vs consensus 47.0 and prior 47.0

        • Eurozone 46.1 vs consensus 45.3 and prior 45.1

        • Germany 44.1 vs consensus 42.7 and prior 42.5

        • France 45.3 vs consensus 42.3 and prior 41.9

      • Flash Jan Services PMI

        • UK 51.2 vs consensus 50.9 and prior 51.1

        • Eurozone 51.4 vs consensus 51.4 and prior 51.6

        • Germany 52.5 vs consensus 51.0 and prior 51.2

        • France 48.9 vs consensus 49.3 and prior 49.3

      • Spain Dec PPI +2.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior revised +1.2% from +0.9%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Mar 25): ($0.17) or (0.23%) to $74.45

      • €-$ +0.0100 or +0.96% to 1.0516

      • £-$ +0.0137 or +1.11% to 1.2490

      • €-£ (0.0014) to 0.8419

      • S&P 500 +0.00%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +3.99%

        • DAX: +7.42%

        • CAC: +7.41%

        • MIB: +5.83%

        • Stoxx 600: +4.40%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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