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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +1.04% to 8646.88, DAX +0.41% to 21727.20, CAC40 +0.88% to 7941.64, STOXX 600 +0.86% to 538.84

Jan 30 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended broadly higher Thursday with STOXX600 at fresh all-time high. UK's FTSE 100 also touched a fresh record high during the session. All European sectors ended in positive territory. Tech continued to rebound (although STM down (11%) post results), energy also stronger; banks, insurers relative underperformers. Travel & Leisure main laggard weighed down by WIZZ.LN and EVO.SS post earnings.

    • In Europe, focus on ECB decision. Cut rates by 25 bps as expected. Statement reiterated disinflation process well on track, but domestic inflation remains high. Maintained data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Softer-than-expected Q4 growth numbers from Eurozone earlier increases pressures on ECB to accelerate easing cycle. Market pricing in four cuts this year. FOMC takeaways uneventful with market not expecting another rate cut until June. Nothing particularly incremental on Trump 2.0 policy, where headline volatility has become the big theme, particularly when it comes to tariffs.

    • US earnings dominating the headlines with META and TSLA the big tech bright spots while MSFT a laggard. However, broader AI takeaways largely upbeat in the wake of the DeepSeek shakeout earlier this week. Microsoft and OpenAI investigating whether it improperly obtained OpenAI data to build its model. Late Wednesday Alibaba claimed its AI model surpassed DeepSeek's capabilities, signaling broader competitive threat from China in AI space. Meanwhile, Bloomberg sources noted Trump officials discussing whether to tighten curbs on NVDA chip exports to China in wake of DeepSeek claims it relied on older model chips to develop its AI model.

    • On macro data front, Eurozone Q4 GDP missed amid weaker-than-expected updates from Germany, France and Italy. However, Eurozone economic confidence improved on better services sector sentiment. Spanish flash CPI firmer than forecast. Swiss KOF leading indicators beat. BoE mortgage approval data pointed to positive momentum for UK housing market. REC survey showed employers more confident after UK budget fallout late last year. Elsewhere, UK Chancellor Reeves' growth plan received mixed reviews due to time it will take to lift UK growth potential and opposition to Heathrow airport expansion.

    • In the US, initial claims down to 207K, below consensus 225K. Continuing claims 1.858M also below estimates. First look at Q4 GDP came in a bit weaker than anticipated at 2.3% vs 2.4% estimate, down from Q3's 3.1%. Q4 core PCE of 2.5% in line with Street, though up from prior quarter's 2.2%. Personal consumption a bright spot, up 4.2% on annualized basis, highest since Q1-23. Friday brings core PCE inflation, ECI and Chicago PMI.

    • Busy on the European corporate front. Bank earnings were in focus: BBVA.SM Q4 net income beat, and announced €993M buyback. DBK.GR Q4 net income, PBT missed; scrapped cost target. CABK.SM FY net profit 20% higher y/y, also approved €500M buyback. NDA.SE.SS results with positive takeaways, namely on capital generation. Other big names reporting today: NOKIA.FH Q4 sales, operating profit beat but FY25 guidance slightly disappointing on midpoint. STMPA.FP Q4 revenue, net income beat but Q1 25 guidance lower. SAN.FP Q4 sales slight beat, plans €5B buyback. ROG.SW FY revenue missed but sees increased sales and high single-digit core profit growth in 2025. G.IM announced over €7B in cumulative dividends plus commitment to at least €1.5B in share buybacks.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Basic Resources +1.30%, Media +1.92%, Real Estate +1.80%, Energy+1.79%, Retail +1.27%, Construct & Mtls +1.19%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +1.17%, Utilities +1.12%, Consumer Products and Services +1.07%, Technology +1.02%

      • Underperformers:

        • Travel & Leisure +0.07%, Banks +0.20%, Insurance +0.21%, Telecom +0.61%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.67%, Health Care +0.67%, Chemicals +0.77%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.78%, Autos & Parts +0.79%

    • Macro:

      • Gold

        • Swiss December gold exports to the US reach highest since March 2022 -- Reuters

      • ECB

        • ECB warns of 'headwinds' to Eurozone economy as it cuts rate to 2.75% -- FT

        • Weak growth, ECB boost traders' euro area rate cut confidence -- Reuters

      • BoE

        • Bank of England readies rate cut and could hint at more to come -- Reuters

      • Norway

        • Norway's government collapses over EU spat -- POLITICO

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +20.2% FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks £7.95, +1.33) -- enters strategic partnership with Molson Coors; Molson Coors acquires 8.5% stake; proceeds to be returned via a share buyback programme of £71.0M

        • +19.6% GURN.SW (Gurit Holding CHF17.70, +2.90) -- FY sales

        • +16.1% MRN.FP (Mersen €22.35, +3.12) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +10.9% STJ.LN (St. James's Place £10.17, +1.01) -- Q4 FuM

        • +9.6% ARCH.NO (Archer NOK28.91, +2.54) -- trading update

        • +9.0% AAF.LN (Airtel Africa £1.45, +0.12) -- 9M earnings

        • +8.7% RVRC.SS (RVRC Holding SEK48.62, +3.88) -- Q2 earnings

        • +8.4% DWS.GR (DWS Group €46.12, +3.58) -- Q4 earnings

        • +8.4% BWLPG.NO (BW LPG NOK143.80, +11.10) -- Pareto upgrade

        • +8.2% MTU.FP (Manitou BF €21.80, +1.65) -- FY revenue

        • +7.8% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £5.84, +0.42) -- publishes prospectus in connection with previously disclosed 13 for 20 rights issue

        • +7.3% LSL.LN (LSL Property Services £2.93, +0.20) -- trading update; new CEO designate

        • +7.2% IVA.FP (Inventiva €2.34, +0.16) -- journal publication

        • +6.9% ITECH.SS (I-Tech SEK62.00, +4.00) -- supply and license agreement with Asian-based paint company

        • +6.8% SAGA.LN (Saga Plc £1.20, +0.08) -- trading update

        • +6.5% AERO.SW (Montana Aerospace CHF16.66, +1.02) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +6.3% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.42, +0.03) -- trading update

        • +6.0% SIS.LN (Science In Sport £0.27, +0.02) -- trading update

        • +5.8% NFG.LN (Next 15 Group £3.64, +0.20) -- trading update; CFO to step down

        • +5.6% ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific €51.82, +2.79) -- FY earnings

        • +5.3% ALFA.LN (Alfa Financial Software Holdings £2.17, +0.11) -- trading update

        • +5.2% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB SEK53.70, +2.66) -- DnB Markets upgrade

        • +5.1% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK32.10, +1.56) -- Q4 earnings

        • +4.5% KETL.LN (Strix Group £0.48, +0.02) -- trading update; Shore Capital upgrade

        • +4.5% BUCN.SW (Bucher Industries CHF362.50, +15.50) -- FY revenue

        • +4.5% ALNOV.FP (Novacyt €0.66, +0.03) -- trading update

        • +4.2% KNEBV.FH (Kone €50.46, +2.04) -- Q4 earnings

        • +4.2% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €3.67, +0.15) -- non-dilutive royalty financing agreement and debt overhang resolution plan

        • +3.7% GNC.LN (Greencore Group £1.89, +0.07) -- trading update

        • +3.5% SRP.LN (Serco Group £1.56, +0.05) -- acquires Northrop Grumman's mission training and satellite ground network communications software business (MT&S) for $327M (£264M) in cash

        • +3.5% FUTR.LN (Future Plc £9.30, +0.31) -- new CEO

        • +3.0% VITR.SS (Vitrolife SEK235.00, +6.80) -- Q4 earnings

        • +2.2% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF166.95, +3.65) -- FY earnings

        • +1.9% MER.LN (Mears Group £3.53, +0.06) -- £18M share buyback program

        • +1.4% ITM.LN (ITM Power £0.36, +0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • +0.2% AXFO.SS (Axfood SEK242.80, +0.50) -- Q4 earnings

        • +3.6% ITV.LN (ITV £0.74, +0.03) -- ITV and Redbird IMI reportedly in early discussions towards merging production segments - Reuters

      • Notable Decliners

        • -46.8% FUM.LN (Futura Medical £0.17, -0.15) -- trading update and FY25 guidance

        • -25.0% RCDO.LN (Ricardo £2.63, -0.88) -- trading update

        • -13.7% TNOM.FH (Talenom €3.53, -0.56) -- Q4 earnings

        • -10.7% STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics €21.29, -2.54) -- Q4 earnings

        • -6.3% EVO.SS (Evolution SEK824.20, -55.80) -- Q4 earnings

        • -5.8% GREEN.SS (Green Landscaping Group SEK70.00, -4.30) -- Q4 earnings

        • -5.8% ENEA.SS (Enea AB SEK98.00, -6.00) -- FY earnings

        • -5.5% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £13.06, -0.76) -- Q3 earnings

        • -5.5% SOM.LN (Somero Enterprises £2.88, -0.17) -- FY earnings

        • -5.3% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK20.44, -1.14) -- Q4 earnings

        • -5.1% MUL.LN (Mulberry Group £0.93, -0.05) -- details of new strategy; trading update; new CFO

        • -4.8% SNI.NO (Stolt-Nielsen NOK298.00, -15.00) -- Q4 earnings

        • -4.4% XPP.LN (XP Power £12.62, -0.58) -- increase in provisioning related to US legal case with Comet Technologies USA Inc

        • -4.3% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £9.91, -0.44) -- trading update

        • -3.4% NCH2.GR (thyssenkrupp nucera €8.79, -0.31) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade

        • -3.4% HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz SEK148.70, -5.30) -- Q4 earnings

        • -3.2% DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank €18.91, -0.63) -- Q4 earnings

        • -3.0% ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux SEK106.70, -3.30) -- Q4 earnings

        • -2.3% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £37.70, -0.90) -- obtains the right for uranium exploration at a new block in Suzak district of Turkestan region

        • -2.1% TELIA.SS (Telia Co. SEK31.72, -0.69) -- Q4 earnings

        • -1.9% KPN.NA (Royal KPN €3.55, -0.07) -- Q4 earnings

        • -1.9% BOWL.LN (Hollywood Bowl Group £2.74, -0.05) -- trading update

        • -1.8% ABBN.SW (ABB Limited CHF50.14, -0.94) -- Q4 earnings

        • -1.6% BT.A.LN (BT Group £1.44, -0.02) -- Q3 earnings

        • -1.3% AMBU.B.DC (Ambu DKK137.60, -1.80) -- Q1 earnings

        • -0.6% SGE.LN (Sage Group £13.34, -0.08) -- trading update

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: KBC Ancora (KBCA.BB)

        • DACHs: Novartis (NOVN.SW), First Sensor (SIS.GR)

        • Denmark: RTX (RTX.DC)

        • Finland: Elisa (ELISA.FH)

        • Norway: Scatec (SCATC.NO), Prosafe (PRS.NO)

        • Sweden: Hexagon (HEXA.B.SS), Lifco (LIFCO.B.SS), Svenska Cellulosa SCA (SCA.B.SS), SKF (SKF.B.SS), Beijer Ref (BEIJ.B.SS), Holmen (HOLM.B.SS), Lagercrantz (LAGR.B.SS), Hemnet (HEM.SS), Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS), Electrolux Professional (EPRO.B.SS), Addnode (ANOD.B.SS), Jm (JM.SS), MedCap (MCAP.SS), Ependion (EPEN.SS), Byggmax (BMAX.SS), Midsona (MSON.B.SS)

      • CMD/events: eDreams ODIGEO (EDR.SM)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Q4 Preliminary GDP

        • Austria (0.2%) y/y vs consensus (0.2%) and prior revised (0.8%) from (0.6%)

        • France +0.7% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and prior +1.2%

        • Italy +0.5% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior +0.4%

        • Germany (0.2%) y/y vs consensus 0.0% and prior (0.3%)

        • Portugal +2.7% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior revised +2.0% from +1.9%

        • Eurozone +0.9% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.9%

      • UK Dec

        • M4 Money Supply +0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior 0.0%

        • Mortgage Approvals 66.53K vs consensus 65.0K and prior revised 66.06K from 65.72K

      • Switzerland

        • Dec Trade Balance CHF3.49B vs consensus CHF4.5B and prior revised CHF6.11B from CHF5.42B

        • Jan KOF Leading Indicators 101.6 vs consensus 100.3 and prior revised 99.6 from 99.5

        • Dec Swiss Watch Exports fall (5.4%) to CHF2.0B; annual total CHF25.9B, a decline of 2.8% compared with 2023

      • Eurozone Jan Economic Sentiment Indicator 95.2 vs consensus 94.1 and prior 93.7

        • Consumer Confidence (14.2) vs preliminary (14.2)

        • Services Sentiment Indicator 6.6 vs consensus 6.0 and prior revised 5.7 from 5.9

      • Spain Jan Preliminary CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +2.8%

      • Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate 2.6% vs consensus 2.7% and prior 2.6%

      • Sweden Dec Retail Sales +5.6% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior revised +1.4% from +1.6%

      • France Dec Consumer Goods Spending +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised +0.2% from +0.3%

      • Dec Swiss Watch Exports fall (5.4%) to CHF2.0B; annual total CHF25.9B, a decline of 2.8% compared with 2023

      • Eurozone Dec Unemployment Rate 6.3% vs consensus 6.3% and prior revised 6.2% from 6.3%

      • Italy Dec Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 5.7% and prior 5.7%

      • Greece Dec Unemployment Rate 9.4% vs consensus 9.6% and prior revised 9.5% from 9.6%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Mar 25): +$0.63 or +0.87% to $73.25

      • €-$ +0.0003 or +0.03% to 1.0426

      • £-$ +0.0015 or +0.12% to 1.2464

      • €-£ (0.0008) to 0.8364

      • S&P 500 +0.20%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +5.80%

        • DAX: +9.13%

        • CAC: +7.60%

        • MIB: +6.56%

        • Stoxx 600: +6.15%

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