Feb 11 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed with pan-European indices around closing session highs. Netherlands +0.8% , Switzerland +0.6% and Spain +0.5% led outperformers whilst Denmark (0.5%), Portugal and Greece (0.2%) led underperdormers.
Focus on commentary about potential impact of US tariffs in wake of Trump's latest salvo. FT said European companies bracing for uncertainty fuelled by a global trade war that will lead to policies affecting investments. Cited utilities executives warning tariff threats are slowing renewable energy projects in the US. Added that while some corporates seek to expand in the US markets, analysts stress that uncertainty, not just tariffs, is hurting growth.
EU trade ministers set to hold a video conference on 12-Feb following Trump's decision (Politico). EU Commission President von der Leyen vowed to take firm and proportionate actions (Politico). Reports that UK PM Starmer to meet Trump before end of February. The London Times reported Britain is not expected to join the EU in retaliating against Trump steel tariffs and hopes to negotiate an opt-out from proposed 25% levy.
Central bank narrative also in focus. BoE member Mann, former hawk who voted for 50 bps cut, said demand conditions quite a bit weaker and expects companies to struggle to raise prices. In the UK, survey from British Retail Consortium showed fastest increase in consumer spending in two years in January, offering some hope to beleaguered retail sector. Meanwhile, EU gas storage levels in focus with prices climbing to two-year highs on cold weather. Elsewhere, France said it will keep its digital tax despite risk of retaliation.
In a busy earnings session, Kering (KER.FP) revenue beat in Q4 and FY, with Gucci underperforming with comparable change (24%) vs SA (23.3%). In the DACH region, ams-OSRAM (AMS.SW) shares gained as much as +19% following robust Q4 results. SGS (SGSN.SW) also higher following in line FY earnings and better FY25 operating margin guide. Suedzucker (SZU.GR) now expects FY Group EBITDA and operating result at the upper area of guidance ranges; provides initial guidance for FY26. Backing the trend, TUI Group (TUI1.GR) shares are down despite solid Q1 beat for revenue and EBIT; analysts note reiterated guidance suggest slow-down in EBIT growth rates for the rest of the year and also point out winter 2024/25 volumes are +2% vs +4% reported in Dec update.
In the UK, BP (BP.LN) posted mixed Q4 earnings with focus turning to strategy reset to be announced at capital markets event on 26-Feb. Dunelm Group (DNLM.LN) reported H1 with special dividend of 35p/sh also announced along with retirement of CEO. Bellway (BWY.LN) H1 2025 trading update showed strong performance, with completions up 11.9% to 4,577 homes and a private sales rate increase of 18.6% to 0.51.
In Italy, UniCredit (UCG.IM) shares traded lower despite better-than-expected Q4 numbers with FY25 guidance of net profit and RoTE broadly in line with FY24 despite macro headwinds. Mediobanca (MB.IM) was higher following better-than-expected Q2 results and reaffirmed FY25 guidance and raised FY26 targets.
On M&A front, Merck KGaA (MRK.GR) confirmed discussions to acquire SpringWorks Threapeutics (SWTX). Novartis (NOVN.SW) to acquire Anthos Therapeutics for $925M up front with potential additional payments of up to $2.15B upon achievement of specified regulatory and sales milestones. dsm-firmenich (DSFIR.NA) to sell stake in Feed Enzymes Alliance to Novonesis (NSIS.B.SS) for €1.5B. Portugal reportedly considering sale of at least 49% of airline TAP.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Banks +1.29%, Oil & Gas +0.80%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.77%, Technology +0.74%, Media +0.43%, Telecom +0.41%, Retail +0.38%, Autos & Parts +0.32%
Underperformers
Travel & Leisure (2.35%), Basic Resources (1.86%), Utilities (0.92%), Real Estate(0.72%), Health Care (0.67%), Chemicals (0.14%), Insurance (0.06%), Financial Svcs (0.02%), Persnl & HHold Goods +0.04%, Construct & Mtls +0.06%, Food & Beverage +0.10%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
Speech by EU's von der Leyen at the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit (release)
EU launches InvestAI initiative to mobilise €200B of investment in artificial intelligence (release)
EU to retaliate against US steel and aluminium tariffs (FT)
European gas prices spike to 2-year highs as storage levels falter (Euronews )
Central Banks
Geopolitics
UK
Social media trends drive retail sales surge in January (Guardian)
UK seeks talks to avoid Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs (Bloomberg)
Starmer to meet Trump in Washington amidst trade tensions (Telegraph)
The February 2025 Monetary Policy Report, Catherine L. Mann speech - BoE release
New UK sanctions target Russian cybercrime network (gov.uk )
Spain
Spain pushes to double EU budget to over €2 trillion (Politico)
Greece
Political tensions flare over Tempe probe (ekathimerini)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.7% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF8.09, +1.28) -- Q4 earnings
+17.2% BEN.FP (Beneteau €10.18, +1.50) -- prelim FY earnings; CIC Market Solutions and Gilbert Dupont upgrades
+15.1% BAR.BB (Barco €11.11, +1.46) -- FY earnings
+11.6% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF3.46, +0.36) -- European Patent Office decision to grant patent for RLF-TD011
+8.2% SVED.B.SS (Svedbergs Group SEK48.50, +3.70) -- Q4 earnings
+8.1% RWS.LN (RWS Holdings £1.52, +0.11) -- AGM statement
+7.6% PACT.SS (Proact IT Group SEK130.40, +9.20) -- Q4 earnings
+6.8% WHA.NA (Wereldhave €16.06, +1.02) -- FY earnings
+6.7% SGSN.SW (SGS CHF97.28, +6.12) -- FY earnings
+6.2% PSAN.GR (PSI Software €24.00, +1.40) -- company and E.ON jointly implement intelligent control system for the distribution grid of the future
+4.9% PZC.LN (PZ Cussons £0.83, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+3.9% TLT1V.FH (Teleste €2.90, +0.11) -- Q4 earnings
+3.6% ALO.FP (Alstom €21.13, +0.73) -- Alstom and Deutsche Bahn sign long-term framework contract for the modernisation and digitalisation of the German rail network; contract value > €600M
+3.3% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK281.50, +9.00) -- HSBC upgrade
+3.0% BEIA.B.SS (Beijer Alma SEK193.00, +5.60) -- acquires International Industrial Springs
+2.7% LATO.B.SS (Latour Investment SEK296.30, +7.80) -- Q4 earnings
+2.3% BRAV.SS (Bravida Holding SEK92.35, +2.10) -- Q4 earnings
+2.2% LIFCO.B.SS (Lifco SEK387.40, +8.40) -- initiated buy at UBS
+1.9% MOVE.SW (Medacta Group CHF137.00, +2.60) -- initiated buy at Bryan Garnier
+1.7% FNTL.LN (Fintel £2.69, +0.04) -- transitions to single CEO structure
+1.6% ALVU.FP (Vente-Unique.com €13.10, +0.20) -- Q1 revenue
+1.4% KER.FP (Kering €247.90, +3.50) -- FY earnings
+1.4% BOUL.SS (Boule Diagnostics SEK8.82, +0.12) -- Q4 earnings
+1.4% DUNI.SS (Duni SEK103.20, +1.40) -- Q4 earnings
+1.4% LAGR.B.SS (Lagercrantz Group SEK234.20, +3.20) -- completes acquisition of TASL in the UK
Notable Decliners
-21.2% LAND.SW (Landis+Gyr Group CHF49.65, -13.35) -- to discontinue the EV charging business and record impairment as well as restructuring charges in relation to this decision; lowers FY24 guidance
-14.2% CTM.SS (Catena Media SEK4.13, -0.68) -- Q4 earnings
-13.9% MOB.SS (Moberg Pharma SEK8.23, -1.33) -- Q4 earnings
-10.4% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €7.64, -0.89) -- Q1 earnings
-10.3% ENT.LN (Entain £6.63, -0.77) -- CEO steps down
-8.1% KEMIRA.FH (Kemira €20.06, -1.76) -- Q4 earnings
-5.7% BWY.LN (Bellway £24.20, -1.46) -- trading update
-5.5% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €9.79, -0.57) -- Q4 earnings
-4.7% IPCO.SS (International Petroleum Corp SEK143.90, -7.10) -- Q4 earnings
-3.6% WIHL.SS (Wihlborgs Fastigheter SEK109.10, -4.10) -- Q4 earnings
-3.2% OLVAS.FH (OLVI €30.25, -1.00) -- Q4 earnings
-1.9% DEMANT.DC (Demant DKK262.40, -5.20) -- BofA downgrade
-1.0% UCG.IM (UniCredit €46.77, -0.45) -- Q4 earnings; UniCredit CEO comments on rumours of Delfin selling its 2.7% stake -- Sole24Ore citing CNBC
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: voestalpine (VOE.AV), DO & CO (DOC.AV)
Belgium: Galapagos (GLPG.NA)
Denmark: Genmab (GMAB.DC)
Finland: Cargotec (CGCBV.FH), Aktia Bank (AKTIA.FH), Kempower (KEMPOWR.FH), Etteplan (ETTE.FH), Pihlajalinna (PIHLIS.FH), Taaleri (TAALA.FH), Anora Group (ANORA.FH), Remedy Entertainment (REMEDY.FH), NoHo Partners (NOHO.FH), WithSecure Corp. (WITH.FH), Sitowise Group (SITOWS.FH)
France: EssilorLuxottica (EL.FP), Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin (ML.FP), Klepierre (LI.FP), Rexel (RXL.FP), Mercialys (MERY.FP)
Germany: Siemens Energy (ENR.GR), Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR), Heidelberger Druckmaschinen (HDD.GR), TeamViewer (TMV.GR), Verbio (VBK.GR)
Italy: Telecom Italia (TIT.IM), Banco BPM (BAMI.IM), Italgas (IG.IM)
Netherlands: Heineken (HEIA.NA), Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (AD.NA), ABN AMRO Bank (ABN.NA), Randstad (RAND.NA), Alfen (ALFEN.NA)
Norway: Aker BP (AKRBP.NO), Storebrand (STB.NO), Mowi (MOWI.NO), Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI.NO), Entra (ENTRA.NO), BlueNord (BNOR.NO), Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (WWI.NO), Elkem (ELK.NO), SATS (SATS.NO), Aker BioMarine (AKBM.NO), Selvaag Bolig (SBO.NO)
Spain: Mapfre (MAP.SM)
Sweden: Medicover (MCOV.B.SS), Lindab International (LIAB.SS), BioGaia (BIOG.B.SS), Volati (VOLO.SS), Ambea (AMBEA.SS), Storytel (STORY.B.SS), Resurs Holding (RESURS.SS), Catella (CAT.B.SS), Lime Technologies (LIME.SS), Acast (ACAST.SS), Orron Energy (ORRON.SS), Profoto Holding (PRFO.SS), Xspray Pharma (XSPRAY.SS), Nilorngruppen (NIL.B.SS)
Switzerland: Schindler Holding (SCHP.SW), DKSH Holding (DKSH.SW)
UK: Barratt Redrow (BTRW.LN), TBC Bank Group (TBCG.LN)
Data:
Economics:
France Q4 Unemployment Rate 7.3% vs consensus 7.5% and prior 7.4%
Norway Q4 GDP (0.6%) q/q vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised (1.6%) from (1.8%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Mar 25): +$0.82 or +1.13% to $73.14
€-$ +0.0041 or +0.40% to 1.0348
£-$ +0.0053 or +0.43% to 1.2421
€-£ (0.0003) to 0.8331
S&P 500 (0.03%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.39%
DAX: +10.69%
CAC: +8.78%
MIB: +9.93%
Stoxx 600: +7.79%
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