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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.42%, Hang Seng +2.64%, Shanghai Composite +0.85% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 12 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities advanced Wednesday. Hang Seng led the gainers as enthusiasm over AI developments while property surged in afternoon after latest Vanke (2202.HK) developments that boosted sentiments further. Mainland China also higher with Shenzhen outperforming Shanghai. Elsewhere there were mild gains in Australia, Japan and Korea while Taiwan was lower. India trading down. US futures little changed. Treasuries little changed ahead of US CPI while JGBs were weaker as 5Y yield climbed to 1% for first time since 2008. Dollar strengthened against yen while most flat against other major Asian currencies. Crude and gold seeing mild declines. Bitcoin up slightly after hitting one-week low.

    • Most Asian markets were largely biding time ahead of Wednesday's US CPI data and markets see Fed on hold at its March and May meetings while Chairman Powell told Congress that it doesn't need to rush to adjust rates amid economic uncertainties and time needed to assess impact of policies. There are concerns disinflation momentum is stalling just as tariffs threaten to put more upward pressure on goods prices.

    • In Asia's macro developments, lots of moving pieces responding to Washington's tariffs with Japan the latest to request its steel and aluminum products to be exempted from 25% levies imposed by President Trump. Came after Australia made similar request earlier, though Canberra's bid is under cloud as Trump's adviser accused Australia of "killing" US aluminum market. Elsewhere BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed commitment to conduct monetary policy with aim of achieving 2% inflation target sustainably and stably. More brokers turned bullish on China's AI-driven rally with tailwind from DeepSeek's breakthrough leading to reassessment of China's market.

    • Busy day for corporate developments. Alibaba (9988.HK) surged nearly 8.5% after The Information reported it was partnering with AAPL to develop AI features for iPhone users in China. Bloomberg broke the story that Chinese authorities working on proposal to help China Vanke (2202.HK) to plug funding gap of about CNY50B this year to repay debt. News led to surges in several developers in afternoon. CATL (300570.CH) has filed application for listing in Hong Kong that could raise more than $5B which would be city's biggest in four years. SMIC (981.HK) said market for its staple mature-node chips could be oversupplied in H2 2025. Eneos (5020.JP) plans to raise at least JPY400B ($2.61B) in metals unit's IPO. Hon Hai (2317.TT) is open to buy Renault's (RNO.FP) stake in Nissan (7201.JP). Softbank Group (9984.JP) tumbled to loss in Q3 just ahead of its Stargate initiative with OpenAI.

  • Digest:

    • Alibaba stock jumps after report of partnership with Apple on AI roll out in China:

      • Alibaba (9988.HK) shares spiked more than 8% in Hong Kong trading Wednesday after TheInformation reported Apple (AAPL) is partnering with the company to roll out AI features for iPhone users in China in sign of recognition of e-commerce giant's capabilities on AI. The two companies have submitted Chinese AI features they co-developed for regulatory approval. Added Apple previously chose Baidu (9888.HK) as its main partner in 2024 while it was dropped due to slow progress. Apple also tested AI models from Tencent (700.HK), ByteDance and DeepSeek. It passed on DeepSeek as the startup's lack of sufficient manpower and experience in supporting a large customer. Meanwhile Alibaba was selected, partly driven by massive volumes of data it has on users' online habits, which would help better train models. Apple also sees strength in Alibaba's Qwen AI model as it strives to boost sales of iPhones in China amid challenge that Apple Intelligence capability is yet available to mainland users.

    • Strategists see AI tailwinds propelling China tech stocks higher:

      • Hong Kong tech stocks in bull market with more than 20% rally from January lows (FT). Gains chalked up largely to AI tailwinds following DeepSeek breakthrough as China's cloud providers move to incorporate its lower cost model into their services. Strategists increasingly bullish on prospects for China tech stocks (Bloomberg). BofA saw DeepSeek as structurally positive long-term, likening situation to Alibaba's 2014 IPO that led to wave of new economy firms and revived global inflows. While southbound flows fueling much of the recent buying (Bloomberg), Morgan Stanley argued global investors reassessing China as an investment destination as country leverages its tech ecosystem and government support to accelerate AI adoption. UBS highlighted valuation re-rating opportunities with China's semi sector having significantly underperformed SOX over 2023/24, adding that DeepSeek breakthrough can facilitate 'closed loop' ecosystem between China's cloud computing providers, LLMs and semi suppliers. CSLA saw cloud service providers resuming double digit growth in 2024 amid undemanding valuations. Hang Seng Tech forward P/E of less than 17x remains below five-year average of 25x (Bloomberg).

    • SMIC supported by localization push and China consumer goods subsidies:

      • SMIC (981.HK) Q4 key earnings metrics mostly on the firm side though most of the attention went to strong Q1 guidance. Analysts highlighted domestic client exposure hit record levels, benefiting from China's localization push and government subsidies for consumer electronics. This helped offset weaker international demand, reinforcing SMIC's strategic importance in China's semiconductor ecosystem. SMIC co-CEO Zhao Haijun said on the earnings call that there has been a rush of orders for H1 reflecting front-loading activity prompted by concerns over US tariffs and broader geopolitical tensions (Nikkei). Overall tone was positive in the near term, though countered by uncertainties over the outlook, expressing concerns about potential negative payback in H2 to coincide with increased capacity coming online among competitors. Price dynamics also seen skewed to the downside. Similarly, analyst takeaways were mixed, seeing strong growth potential from localization and advanced nodes but remaining cautious on mature node competitiveness, margin sustainability, and geopolitical risks.

    • Yen breaks lower on Powell comments, tariff uncertainties:

      • Yen weakening notably Wednesday since mid-morning after Japan returned from a public holiday yesterday. Main trigger was attributed to Fed chair Powell's remarks reiterating the Fed in no hurry to lower rates, pushing US yields higher. Reaffirms yield differentials as the primary dynamic. Flows also supportive amid dollar shortages among domestic importers. Some attention on technical analysis with stop-losses seen triggered on the break of the USD/JPY 200-day moving average at 152.71. in the afternoon, some talk of long yen positions lightening ahead of the upcoming US CPI data. BOJ Ueda remarks in parliament had limited impact. Most pertinent quote was that future rate hikes will depend on prevailing economic conditions, contrasting with board member Tamura's recent speech that specified he will consider a 25 bp hike. Notable reversal in market conjecture compared to last week. Recall that Tamura headline effects combined with strong wage growth and potential tariff haven demand for yen. Latter dynamic was challenged after US President Trump announced universal steel tariffs. Japan government requested an exemption, though headline effects were limited amid uncertainties over the outcome.

    • Australia's bid to secure exemption from Trump's metals tariffs under cloud:

      • Uncertainty clouding Australia's prospects of securing exemption from 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that President Trump ordered on Monday. Trump confirmed he was weighing exempting Australia following his phone call with Prime Minister Albanese. Trump described Albanese as "very fine man" and said tariff exemption consideration was in part because Australia was one of the few countries that ran a trade deficit with US. However, Trump's positive comments soon overshadowed by his official proclamation claiming Australia broke its verbal commitment to voluntarily limit quantity of aluminum exports when it was exempted from 2018 tariffs. Noted Australia aluminum exports to US were ~103% higher than average over 2015-2017 (Bloomberg). Speaking to CNN, White House Trade Adviser Navarro accused Australia of "killing" US aluminum market, citing Australia's aluminum production capacity utilization rate of 90% compared to America's 50%. While approximately 30% of Australian steel was exported to US in 2024, US-bound aluminum exports comprised just 2.4%. Australian Treasurer Chalmers said Wednesday Australia would not retaliate if subjected to the tariffs.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +19.3% 2413.JP (M3): reports 9M results with year-on-year revenue growth

      • +16.7% 2202.HK (China Vanke): China reportedly working on plan to help China Vanke deal with its debt

      • +16% 000880.KS (Hanwha): reports FY operating profit and revenue ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +10.4% 5803.JP (Fujikura): reports 9M results with year-on-year revenue and operating profit growth

      • +8.5% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): Apple and Alibaba reportedly enter partnership to bring AI features to iPhone users in China

      • +5.8% 981.HK (SMIC): reports Q4 net income attributable below FactSet estimates

      • +3.8% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): reportedly exploring project financing to fund Stargate Project

      • +0.1% 282330.KS (BGF Retail Co.): reports Q4 revenue ahead of FactSet estimates

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -15% 3405.JP (Kuraray): reports FY net income attributable below FactSet estimates; guides FY26 ROE 9% vs prior guidance 10%

      • -14% 259960.KS (KRAFTON): reports Q4 operating profit and revenue below StreetAccount estimates

      • -7.3% 3436.JP (SUMCO): reports Q4 net income attributable below guidance

      • -5.9% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): Hon Hai Precision Industry reportedly is looking to acquire Renault's shares in Nissan

      • -0.3% 4503.JP (Astellas Pharma): activist Farallon Capital reportedly takes significant stake in Astellas Pharma; pushes company to cut costs and overhaul drugs research

  • Data:

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 162.53 or +0.42% to 38963.70

      • Hang Seng: 563.06 or +2.64% to 21857.92

      • Shanghai Composite: 28.33 or +0.85% to 3346.39

      • Shenzhen Composite: 25.98 or +1.29% to 2033.97

      • ASX200: 51.30 or +0.60% to 8535.30

      • KOSPI: 9.34 or +0.37% to 2548.39

      • SENSEX: 122.51 or +0.16% to 76416.11

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +1.22 or +0.80% to 153.7140

      • $-KRW: (0.19) or (0.01%) to 1452.6700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.10%) to 0.6288

      • $-INR: +0.08 or +0.09% to 86.8695

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 7.3074

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