Mar 04 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended sharply lower with pan-European indices off worst levels. Germany (3.4%), Norway (2.8%) and Spain (2.6%) led underperformers. Finland +0.7% and Denmark +0.2% were the positive outliers.
Trump's latest tariff announcements driving latest selling markets. Tech sell-off compounding risk aversion with NVDA-led selloff in US. Trade uncertainty blamed for recent pickup in concerns about slowing growth and surge in inflation expectations, while tariffs on Canada and Mexico heightening anxiety about economic impact of supply chain disruptions, and tit-for-tat escalation. Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico to proceed on Tuesday. Trump also signed order doubling China tariff to 20%. Canada and Mexico have already flagged response. China announced retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture, food imports
Ukraine also in the headlines with Trump suspending all military aid to Ukraine to until he sees a commitment to peace. Meanwhile, press reports Europe considering plans to link more than €200B of frozen Russian assets to ceasefire. Ukraine, Poland and Baltic states back the idea but Berlin, Paris and Brussels have previously pushed back but Europe's biggest countries are coming round to the plan. European Commission President von der Leyen announced plans to increase defense spending, which she said could mobilize close to €800B.
From a macro calendar perspective, Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 6.2%, but was revised lower in prior update. Update from BRC showed unexpected fall in UK shop prices due to discounting by fashion retailers. UK financial ombudsman reported big jump in car motor finance complaints ahead of next month's court case.
In corporate news, Thales (HO.FP) reported FY adj EPS €9.24 vs consensus €8.47, hikes divi by ~8.8% and provides FY25 guidance. In the DACH region, Continental (CON.GR) posted FY net income €1.17B vs FactSet €1.28B. Bilfinger (GBF.GR) saw FY net income €179.5M vs FactSet €165.6M with a proposed dividend of €2.40/sh. Fielmann Group (FIE.GR) was out with preliminary figures and hiked divi by 15%. Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli (LISN.SW) and VAT Group (VACN.SW) also released FY results. In the UK, Ashtead Group (AHT.LN) reported Q3 EPS $c77.2 vs consensus $c76.6 and expects FY results in line with previous expectations. abrdn (ABDN.LN) shares traded firmly higher on back of FY24 earnings beat, better-than-expected FY26 targets, refreshed strategy, name change. Greggs (GRG.LN) FY underlying EPS 137.5p vs FactSet 134.4p and LFL sales in company-managed shops increased by 1.7% y/y in first nine weeks of 2025. Intertek Group (ITRK.LN) reported FY EPS 240.6p ex-items vs consensus 238.0p, announced share buyback and raised medium term margin target. Beazley (BEZ.LN) reports FY EPS $1.33 vs FactSet $1.53; to initiate $500M share buyback. In other developments, John Wood Group (WG.LN) taps advisers to help manage parallel debt refinancing discussions and takeover talks with Sidara, FT reported. On M&A front, CriteriaCaixa (CABK.SM) to acquire 5% stake in Veolia (VIE.FP).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Food & Beverage +1.17%, Utilities +0.06%, Real Estate(0.22%), Health Care (0.41%), Insurance (1.18%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.24%), Telecom (1.42%), Chemicals (1.51%), Media (2.14%)
Underperformers
Autos & Parts (5.41%), Oil & Gas (4.17%), Banks (3.80%), Travel & Leisure (3.80%), Technology (3.75%), Financial Svcs (3.69%), Ind Goods & Svcs (3.05%), Basic Resources (2.68%), Construct & Mtls (2.67%), Retail (2.42%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
UK
Germany
Portugal
Portuguese opposition keeps censure motion on table amid PM's conflict of interest allegations - Bloomberg
Greece
Tax dues are set to rise by €1B - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+8.6% JSG.LN (Johnson Service Group £1.43, +0.11) -- FY earnings; considering move to main market
+7.8% KLR.LN (Keller Group £13.88, +1.00) -- FY earnings
+7.3% ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc £1.74, +0.12) -- FY earnings; announces new targets for FY26; changes name to aberdeen group plc
+7.1% LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli CHF118,200.00, +7,800.00) -- FY earnings
+6.7% FIE.GR (Fielmann Group €44.35, +2.80) -- prelim FY earnings
+4.6% ITRK.LN (Intertek Group £53.90, +2.35) -- FY earnings; announces share buyback; raises medium term margin target
+3.9% SDSD.NO (S.D. Standard ETC NOK1.77, +0.07) -- places ~49.8M shares in Dolphin Drilling at NOK1.10/each
+3.3% KGH.LN (Knights Group Holdings £1.41, +0.05) -- Stifel upgrade
+2.7% FRES.LN (Fresnillo £7.75, +0.21) -- FY earnings
+1.9% SRG.IM (Snam €4.69, +0.09) -- completes the acquisition of Edison Stoccaggio
+1.9% SXS.LN (Spectris £26.88, +0.50) -- HSBC upgrade
+1.6% HO.FP (Thales €225.50, +3.60) -- FY earnings
+1.3% SEPL.LN (SEPLAT Energy £1.95, +0.02) -- FY earnings
Notable Decliners
-64.2% SAVE.LN (Savannah Energy £0.10, -0.17) -- completes fundraising; share trading suspension lifted
-44.7% TIG.LN (Team Internet Group £0.55, -0.44) -- Verdane confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for company
-14.3% FORN.SW (Forbo Holding CHF786.00, -131.00) -- FY earnings
-13.7% MAIRE.IM (MAIRE €8.59, -1.36) -- Azzurra Capital acquires an 8% stake in Nextchem for a total consideration of ~€110M
-13.7% ARBN.SW (Arbonia CHF10.86, -1.72) -- FY earnings
-12.9% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.08, -0.01) -- order
-12.5% EVT.GR (Evotec €7.13, -1.02) -- key progress in collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb
-12.2% CON.GR (Continental €60.98, -8.46) -- FY earnings
-12.0% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €7.45, -1.02) -- Bernstein downgrade
-10.8% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €11.00, -1.33) -- Italy and France Feb new passenger car registrations
-10.2% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £2.28, -0.26) -- latest UK grocery share figures
-9.7% SFR.LN (Severfield £0.23, -0.03) -- Peel Hunt downgrade
-9.1% FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care €43.13, -4.34) -- Fresenius completes the sale of part of its stake in company
-8.9% GRG.LN (Greggs £18.95, -1.85) -- FY earnings
-8.5% AHT.LN (Ashtead Group £43.88, -4.09) -- Q3 earnings
-7.7% ENSU.NO (Ensurge Micropower NOK1.17, -0.10) -- Mirabella Financial Services LLP now holds 10.48% from prior 5.14% stake in company
-6.7% XPP.LN (XP Power £9.59, -0.69) -- FY earnings; announces equity fundraise to raise gross proceeds of up to £42M
-6.4% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £14.72, -1.01) -- Feb traffic figures
-6.1% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €79.78, -5.14) -- Mercedes-Benz, BMW making fresh attempt to sell jointly-owned FreeNow - Bloomberg; Italy and France Feb new passenger car registrations
-6.1% BP.LN (BP £4.07, -0.26) -- BP to hire two additional directors to help with shift back to oil and gas - FT
-5.5% MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group €57.45, -3.32) -- Mercedes-Benz, BMW making fresh attempt to sell jointly-owned FreeNow - Bloomberg; Italy and France Feb new passenger car registrations
-5.4% EBS.AV (Erste Group Bank €62.16, -3.56) -- UBS downgrade
-5.2% KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel CHF203.50, -11.10) -- FY earnings
-5.0% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK16.86, -0.89) -- confirms discovery in the PL1119 Mistral exploration well 6406/6-7S located in the southern Norwegian sea
-4.2% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon SEK117.60, -5.10) -- prepares for the spin-off of its Asset Lifecycle Intelligence division and related businesses
-3.6% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.19, -0.05) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: Palfinger (PAL.AV)
Benelux: IMCD (IMCD.NA), Envipco Holding (ENVI.NA), MotorK (MTRK.NA), Compagnie du Bois Sauvage (COMB.BB)
France: Atos (ATO.FP), Dassault Aviation (AM.FP), Manitou BF (MTU.FP), SCOR (SCR.FP), Ekinops (EKI.FP), Neurones (NRO.FP), GL Events (GLO.FP), Bonduelle (BON.FP)
Germany: Bayer (BAYN.GR), Evonik Industries (EVK.GR), adidas (ADS.GR), Schaeffler (SHA0.GR), Global Fashion Group (GFG.GR), bet-at-home.com (ACX.GR), q.beyond (QBY.GR)
Nordics: Rapala VMC (RAP1V.FH), Suominen (SUY1V.FH), Everfuel (EFUEL.NO), Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.DC), NTG Nordic Transport Group (NTG.DC), Svitzer Group (SVITZR.DC), Idun Industrier (IDUN.B.SS)
Southern Europe: Geox (GEO.IM), Ariston Holding (ARIS.IM)
Switzerland: Sandoz Group (SDZ.SW), ORIOR (ORON.SW),
UK/Ireland: Ibstock (IBST.LN), SIG (SHI.LN), Nichols (NICL.LN), Dowlais Group (DWL.LN), Breedon Group (BREE.LN), Quilter (QLT.LN), Foxtons Group (FOXT.LN), Ricardo (RCDO.LN), Netcall (NET.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN), AIB Group (A5G.ID)
Data:
Economics:
Spain Feb Unemployment Change (6.0K) vs consensus +45.2K and prior +38.7K
Greece Jan Unemployment Rate 8.7% vs consensus 9.4% and prior revised 9.3% from 9.4%
Eurozone Jan Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 6.3% and prior revised 6.2% from 6.3%
Italy Jan Unemployment Rate 6.3% vs consensus 6.2% and prior revised 6.4% from 6.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): ($0.96) or (1.40%) to $67.41
€-$ +0.0041 or +0.39% to 1.0529
£-$ +0.0012 or +0.09% to 1.2713
€-£ +0.0025 to 0.8283
S&P 500 (1.69%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.17%
DAX: +12.14%
CAC: +9.04%
MIB: +10.36%
Stoxx 600: +8.56%
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