Mar 05 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a positive open. Asia equities rebounding from yesterday's selloff. Biggest gains for Hang Seng just as NPC announced supportive policy measures; mainland markets also seeing gains. Japan and South Korea with solid gains, India breaking a multi-day losing streak, and most of Southeast Asia higher. Japan to close with small gains, Australia the only major board with losses. US futures tracking higher.
Markets seeing some reprieve from trade headline volatility after Commerce Secretary Lutnick flagged partial tariff relief for Canada and Mexico as soon as Wednesday. Lutnick said he believes Trump will work out a longer-term compromise with tariffs on goods covered by USMCA likely settling "somewhere in the middle." Latest twist follows ramp in trade war concerns after Canada, Mexico and China announced plans to retaliate against Trump's tariffs.
In UK, after MPs questions on Scotland, weekly PMQs gets underway at 12noon GMT, whilst Committee topics include nitrogen (10:00), UK's future relationship with the US (10:30), BOE Monetary Policy Reports (14:30 includes BOE's Bailey, others) and workforce planning to deliver clean, secure energy (15:00). UK Feb new car registrations due to be released. After the close, Deutsche Börse review of the composition of the DAX index family.
In central banks, Bundesbank's Theurer speech at 11:00CET at annual reception at the bank's Regional Office in Saxony & Thuringia and Norges Bank's Governor Bache delivers annual address to students at the Univ. of Oslo at 14:15CET.
Macro data due include Italy and Spain Feb manufacturing PMIs and final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany and UK. Also out are Switzerland Feb CPI, Italy Q4 final GDP and Jan retail sales, France Jan industrial production, Eurozone Jan PPI and Ireland Feb unemployment rate.
On the earnings front, IMCD (IMCD.NA) reported FY cash EPS €6.34 vs consensus €5.82 and cut its dividend by 9%. In the DACHs region, Bayer (BAYN.GR) reported Q4 core EPS €1.05 vs consensus €0.95 and guides FY25 sales roughly at prior-year level whilst Adidas (ADS.GR) reported final Q4 earnings with EPS (€0.26) vs FactSet (€0.25). Evonik Industries (EVK.GR) reported Q4 adj. EPS €0.16 vs consensus €0.15 and said it expects Q1 2025 adj. EBITDA expected above prior-year level. Sandoz Group (SDZ.SW) reported FY Core EPS $2.71 vs FactSet $2.70 and SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR) is out with FY revenue €1.53B vs FactSet €1.48B. In France, ATOS (ATO.FP) reported FY operating margin €199M vs FactSet €237.3M. Overnight, Davide Campari-Milano (CPR.IM) released FY net income €367M vs FactSet €341.7M.
Logitech International (LOGN.SW), Severn Trent (SVT.LN) and Gedeon Richter (RICHT.HB) host CMDs/investor events.
Politics/Macro/World News
German parties agree on historic debt overhaul to revamp military and economy - Reuters
European leaders brace for their 'five-minutes-to-midnight' nightmare summit - politico
Treasury earmarks billions in spending cuts - BBC
Commerce Secretary Lutnick flags tariff relief for Canada and Mexico
Trump administration, Ukraine ready to sign minerals deal - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux:
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- reports FY cash EPS €6.34 vs consensus €5.82; cuts divi by 9%
MTRK.NA (MotorK) -- reports FY net income (€12.9M) vs year-ago (€17.7M)
DACHs:
BAYN.GR (Bayer) -- reports Q4 core EPS €1.05 vs consensus €0.95; keeps divi unchanged and guides FY25 sales roughly at prior-year level
EVK.GR (Evonik Industries) -- reports Q4 adj. EPS €0.16 vs consensus €0.15; Q1 2025 adj. EBITDA expected above prior-year level
SDZ.SW (Sandoz Group) -- reports FY Core EPS $2.71 vs FactSet $2.70 [16 est, $1.87-2.95]
S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology) -- reports FY revenue €1.53B vs FactSet €1.48B [7 est, €1.45-1.50B]
FNTN.GR (Freenet) -- reports FY revenue €2.48B vs FactSet €2.46B [10 est, €2.43-2.51B]
TXGN.SW TX Group reports FY net income CHF31.1M vs FactSet CHF24.0M [1 est]
QBY.GR (q.beyond) -- reports FY net income (€4.0M) vs FactSet (€4.1M) [3 est, (€5.1)-(2.5M)]
France:
ATO.FP (ATOS) -- reports FY operating margin €199M vs FactSet €237.3M [2 est, €229-245.5M]
Nordics:
NORSE.NO (Norse Atlantic) -- reports Feb passengers of 84,335; +66% y/y
Southern Europe:
CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano) -- reports FY net income €367M vs FactSet €341.7M [20 est, €291-373M]
INW.IM (Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane) -- reports FY net income €353.8M vs FactSet €371.6M [13 est, €355.9-386.8M]; issues 2025-30 Business Plan Targets
M&A
SDSD.NO (S.D. Standard ETC) -- Saga Pure ASA acquires an additional 2M shares in S.D. Standard ETC
CMBT.BB (CMB.TECH) -- acquires 81.4M Golden Ocean shares from Hemen Holding
LWAY (Lifeway Foods) -- comments on Danone lawsuit; says expects to file counterclaim
SHUR.BB (Shurgard Self Storage) -- acquires full ownership of one of its first Paris facilitie
AFP.SW (Aluflexpack) -- Constantia Flexibles completes acquisition of a majority of shares of Aluflexpack AG
ECOR.LN (Ecora Resources) -- completes acquisition of copper stream from Moxico Resources
Federal government looking to divest 443 "non-core" properties -- Bloomberg
Healthcare
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) -- FDA Orange Book lists first generics of JNJ's Xarelto
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA Accepts Supplemental Biologics License Application for Genentech's Gazyva for the Treatment of Lupus Nephritis
INDV.LN (Indivior) --
SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Two Seas Capital LP)
SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Oaktree Capital Holdings, LLC)
ALK.B.DC (ALK-Abello) -- NICE recommends ALK-Abello's Acarizax to treat allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma caused by house dust mites
IRD (Opus Genetics) -- may file patent infringement lawsuit in response to Sandoz ANDA which challenges certain RYZUMVI patents
OXUR.BB (Oxurion) -- extends its financing program
Other
F3C.GR (SFC Energy) -- receives first order from Saudi Arabia for fuel cells for 100 public safety monitoring systems
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- BaFin imposes administrative fines amounting to €23.05M on Deutsche Bank for multiple regulatory violations
REP.SM (Repsol) -- to initiate up to €300M share buyback programme
GTT.FP (Gaztransport & Technigaz) -- receives an order for the tank design of two new LNG Carriers
ARCAD.NA (ARCADIS) -- CFO Virginie Duperat-Vergne to step down effective 31-May; appoints Willem Baars current head of Global Strategy, Financing and M&A as new CFO
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AG1.GR (Auto1 Group) -- outperform from neutral at Oddo
ACX.SM (Acerinox) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
GETI.B.SS (Getinge) -- Getinge short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
TOM.NO (Tomra Systems) -- to hold from sell at Nordea
Downgrades
HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon) -- hold from buy at Stifel
HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
DTE.GR (Deutsche Telekom) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
HLN.LN (Haleon) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
STJ.LN (St. James's Place) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
Initiations
MOON.LN (Moonpig Group) -- outperform at RBC Capital Markets
Other Actions
TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com) -- resumed hold at Degroof; prior rating was buy
Data
Nikkei +0.23% to 37418.24
Hang Seng +2.40% to 23491.43
Shanghai Composite +0.45% to 3339.15
S&P futures +36.0 vs prior close of 5789.5
€-$ +0.0004 or +0.04% to 1.0631
$-¥ (0.14) or (0.09%) to 149.68
€-¥ (0.10) or (0.06%) to 159.09
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