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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.93%, Hang Seng +0.77%, Shanghai Composite +0.19% as of 04:10 ET

Mar 17 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities rose Monday. Korea outperformed, Japan, Australia, Taiwan all strengthened, Greater China mixed with Hang Seng and Shanghai higher while Shenzhen down. India trading higher. US futures slid. Treasuries little changed. Dollar weaker against kiwi, Korean won and Aussie. Crude stronger amid growing tensions in Red Sea, China's pledge to boost consumption. Gold lower after hitting record high. Bitcoin edging up.

    • China Jan-Feb activity data came stronger than expected with retail sales growth aided by consumer goods trade-in program. Industrial production and fixed asset investment growth also exceeded forecasts, adding to signs economic stabilization has continued into early 2025. However, property market metrics mixed with real estate investment declines and property sales by floor area narrowing, but new home prices back in contraction. Chinese authorities unveiled plan on special initiatives to boost consumption over weekend, highlighting efforts to boost wages and pensions, direct lenders to promote consumption finance, and consider childcare subsidies etc. Press conference on consumption in the afternoon was attended by relatively lower-ranking officials with focus on explaining policies announced in the past week.

    • PBOC easing expectations are waning with mainland press emphasizing importance of timing policy changes. Meanwhile BOJ widely expected to keep rates on hold this week amid growing concerns that the global economy will be pushed down by factors such as US tariffs. Singapore key exports recovered in February after LNY-related contraction in January. Indonesia's exports also jumped in February with trade surplus bigger than expected amid surge in palm oil shipments.

    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) increased stakes in Japan's biggest trading houses, including Itochu (8001.JP), Mitsubishi Corp (8058.JP), Mitsui & Co (8031.JP), Sumitomo (8053.JP) and Marubeni (8002.JP). Hong Kong's pro-Beijing newspaper Ta Kung Pao published another commentary criticizing CK Hutchison's (1.HK) planned sale of its Panama Canal ports, second in three days. Baidu (9888.HK) unveiled two new AI models, including a new reasoning-focused one amid DeepSeek competition. Trump administration seriously considering deal from Oracle (ORCL) to run TikTok's US operation.

  • Digest:

    • China Jan-Feb activity data better than expected:

      • Key Jan-Feb headline metrics were mostly stronger than expected. Industrial production rose 5.9% y/y in Jan-Feb, above consensus 5.3%, following 6.2% in December. Notable growth areas included robots, passenger cars, PCs, integrated circuits and solar cells. Smartphones extended declines. Retail sales were up 4.0% vs consensus 3.8% and 3.7% in prior month. Almost all categories logged increases led by communication equipment and leisure products, while household appliances faded while growth remains in double digits on the back of the consumer goods trade-in program. Autos and beverages were the only decliners. Fixed asset investment rose 4.1%, highest since April, in a markedly positive start to the year. Consensus looked for steady growth of 3.2%. Improvement was consistent with a marked deceleration in real estate declines to 9.8% (also lowest since April) from 10.6% in 2024. Building sales saw sharp improvement in nominal values to a 2.6% decline from a 17.1% drop last year. Residential housing fell 3.4% contrasting with decreases of 29.5% in office buildings and 15.8% in commercial developments. However, total new construction starts remained in deep contraction. The lone disappointment came in the unemployment rate at 5.3% vs consensus and prior month's 5.1%. NBS overall assessment was upbeat, citing ongoing stimulus support while also acknowledging the external environment becoming increasingly complex and severe, while domestic demand remains insufficient.

    • China new home prices drop in February:

      • New home prices in China fell 0.1% m/m in February based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, following two months of relatively steady prices. Noted prices had dropped for 17 straight months from Jun-2023 to Nov-2024. New home prices were down 4.8% y/y, compared with 5.0% decline in January. NBS statistician said top-tier cities continued to outperform lower-tier ones in new home prices while most cities saw m/m price drops in second-hand homes. Prices in both new and second-hand homes across cities saw narrower declines on annual basis. Bloomberg noted price drops may dampen hopes that property market is bottoming out despite authorities' efforts to ramp up support. Beijing also said arresting protracted slide in housing market was among major tasks this year in government work report released earlier in March, which will introduce city-specific policies for adjusting home-purchase restrictions.

    • BOJ sources point to no rate hike this week:

      • Nikkei front-page article cited BOJ sources indicating MPC will likely keep rates on hold this week amid growing concerns that the global economy will be pushed down by factors such as US tariffs. One source noted they need to monitor the effect of the January rate hike, adding the upcoming meeting will be a discussion of how tariff policies affect prices in Japan. Article said board members hold the view that inflation is not severe enough to warrant rapid interest rate hikes, since the domestic economy and prices are generally moving within expected ranges. Recalled Deputy Governor Uchida said at a news conference early this month that the pace of inflation is not at a level that warrants a rate hike each time. Signs consistent with virtually unanimous market expectations of no change (next move still seen around July). Still, sentiment on the outlook remains hawkish. Separate Nikkei commentary discussed how BOJ policy normalization helped by strong wage hikes as well as US President Trump's recent scrutiny over currency weakness. Latter factor may be discouraging lawmakers from expressing concerns about rate hikes. Article added to indications that hawkish market views crystalizing into expectations of a higher terminal rate. Recalled that recent QUICK consensus remained at 1% though risks skewed to the upside.

    • PBOC easing expectations waning amid focus on right timing:

      • Reuters discussed recent local state media reports emphasizing the right timing of monetary easing, echoing PBOC guidance, in the latest signal that a move may not be imminent. Articles added to implications that policymakers are waiting to assess impacts from US tariffs. Cited a PBOC-backed Financial News article calling for finding the right tempo in adjusting monetary policies. Elaborated that easing is not just about cutting interest rates or RRRs, noting cuts do not necessarily translate to credit easing, and financial stimulus alone does not drive sustainable consumption boom. Shanghai Securities News suggested that while there is room to loosen policy, "cutting rates or RRR at the appropriate time means choosing the right timing and strength, so as to make the best use of policy tools to cope with various uncertainties in the future." Added that monetary policy needs to balance economic support and risk prevention, noting constraints from China-US yield differentials and domestic bank NIMs. Reuters suggested that such rhetoric could further dampen expectations for imminent rate cuts. Capital Economics said investors are giving up on further easing, citing recent rise in bond yields. Also noted the absence of policy rate reductions since the slew of stimulus measures were announced, and NPC monetary targets if anything point to less expansive policy than last year.

    • China unveils private consumption growth plan:

      • China announced a plan Sunday on special initiatives to boost consumption (Xinhua), though content was limited to guidelines on scope and lacked specifics on size. Plan aims to vigorously boost consumption, stimulate domestic demand across the board, and increase spending power by increasing earnings and reducing financial burdens. Eight-point plan addresses factors such as income growth, service consumption quality enhancement and big-ticket consumption enhancement. Aims to promote reasonable wage growth by strengthening employment support and improving minimum wage adjustment mechanisms. Flagged expansion in property income channels through measures to stabilize the stock market and develop more bond products tailored to individual investors. Also called for exploring ways to unlock the value of houses legally owned by farmers through rental arrangements, equity participation and cooperative models. Emphasis on both traditional consumption sectors like housing and automobiles, alongside emerging categories such as AI-powered products.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.2% 7327.JP (Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group): confirms that it has been considering business strategies, including a business integration, amid reports that the company and Gunma Bank are in talks about a possible merger

      • +7.5% 081660.KS (FILA Holdings): to launch KRW70.00B share buyback

      • +7.5% 6098.HK (Country Garden Services Holdings): guides FY; expects revenue CNY43.80-44.20B vs FactSet CNY43.35B

      • +2.7% 042660.KS (Hanwha Ocean): receives KRW2.329T contract for 6 container ships

      • +1.5% 1928.JP (Sekisui House): to acquire 1.6M shares or 6.2% stake in Tsuchiya

      • +0.3% 1378.HK (China Hongqiao Group): reports FY results with headline figures ahead of FactSet estimates

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -7.2% 2015.HK (Li Auto): reports Q4 results; Q1 revenue guidance below FactSet estimates

      • -2.3% 300750.CH (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.): reports FY results; revenue CNY362.01B vs guidance CNY356-366B and FactSet CNY370.37B

      • -2% 3038.JP (Kobe Bussan): reports Q1 results with operating profit below FactSet estimates

      • -1.2% 2317.TT (Hon Hai Precision Industry): reports Q4 earnings with EPS below FactSet estimates

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Jan-Feb industrial production +5.9% y/y vs consensus +5.3% and +6.2% in prior month

          • Retail sales +4.0% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and +3.7% in prior month

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +4.1% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and +3.2% in prior month

          • Unemployment rate 5.3% vs consensus 5.1% and 5.1% in prior month

        • February new house prices (0.1%) m/m vs 0.0% in prior month (Reuters)

      • Singapore

        • February non-oil exports +7.6% y/y vs consensus +8.7% and (2.1%) in prior month

          • Non-oil exports +2.6% m/m vs consensus +2.5% and (3.3%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 343.42 or +0.93% to 37396.52

      • Hang Seng: 185.59 or +0.77% to 24145.57

      • Shanghai Composite: 6.57 or +0.19% to 3426.13

      • Shenzhen Composite: 2.93 or +0.14% to 2112.30

      • ASX200: 64.40 or +0.83% to 7854.10

      • KOSPI: 44.33 or +1.73% to 2610.69

      • SENSEX: 268.35 or +0.36% to 74097.26

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.22 or +0.15% to 148.8280

      • $-KRW: (3.27) or (0.23%) to 1447.9100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.15% to 0.6334

      • $-INR: (0.12) or (0.13%) to 86.8282

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 7.2384

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