Mar 24 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher. Bloomberg sources noted Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement may be less severe than thought with certain countries exempted. Trump also set to forego same day announcement on sectoral tariffs while officials flagged prospect of permanent reprieve from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
After some volatile weeks, markets were relatively calm last week, with no big surprises. Even US stocks found support after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while still anticipating rate cuts of half a percentage point by year-end despite slowing economic growth. European equities were little changed, with just the Dax posting a drop of (0.69%) in what seemed a sell-the-news reaction to the passage of Germany's fiscal reform. STOXX600 ended up 0.54%, FTSE up 0.23% and CAC up 0.17%.
This week sees the next round of Russia-US talks on peace deal in Ukraine, UK Chancellor's spring statement, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK preliminary Mar manufacturing/services PMIs, Germany Mar Ifo survey as well as earnings/updates from GAM Holding (GAM.SW), H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Kingfisher (KGF.LN), Next (NXT.LN), Playtech (PTEC.LN) and Smiths Group (SMIN.LN).
European macro data releases out today include Eurozone, France, Germany, UK preliminary Mar manufacturing/services PMIs
Stocks in focus this morning include RWE (RWE.GR) as Elliott issues statement saying it shares market's disappointment with lack of clarity regarding RWE's commitment to enhance shareholder return. Bayer (BAYN.GR) reportedly ordered to pay ~$2.1B in Roundup weedkiller case. Vivendi (VIV.FP) lowers stake in Telecom Italia (TIT.IM)
Today's agenda also sees, in central banks, Austria central bank's Holzmann speech at 10:00CET at event bank co-hosted with EIB. BOE's Bailey speech at 18:00GMT at Univ. of Leicester. Bank of Spain's Escrivá lecture ay 19:30CET on the situation and prospects of the Spanish and European economies at event organised by "la Caixa" Foundation. Next round of Russia-US talks on peace deal in Ukraine due to be held in Saudi Arabia. Also, in Paris, there's a high level political parliamentary summit on Ukraine. EU's Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets and EU health ministers begin a 2-day informal meeting. EU's Virkkunen speech at the European Government Business Relations Council whilst EU's Albuquerque delivers speech at the conf 'Shaping the Future of European Finance' organised by Think Tank Europe, others and EU's Jørgensen participates in the EU-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Business Council. Germany's Network Agency (regulatory office for electricity, gas, telecommunications, post and railway markets) holds advisory board meeting on mobile network requirements. FT hosts its Commodities Global Summit (through Wed)
Politics/Macro/World News
UK Considers Cutting Tech Tax for Carve-Out From Trump Tariffs -- Bloomberg
EU watchdogs warn that weakening rules risks another financial crash -- FT
The rise of Eurozone bond yields outside Germany is unwarranted -- FT
France Gets Budget Warning as DBRS Turns Negative on Rating -- Bloomberg
Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under Trump -- Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
METN.SW (Metall Zug) -- reports FY net income CHF52.8M vs FactSet CHF60.2M [1 est]
PAT.GR (Patrizia) -- reports FY preliminary net income €12.6M vs FactSet €11.8M [7 est, (€8)-17M]
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Patrizia (PAT.GR), INDUS Holding (INH.GR), Metall Zug (METN.SW)
France: Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), Abivax (ABVX.FP)
Southern Europe: Fincantieri (FCT.IM), Iren (IRE.IM), FNM (FNM.IM), EuroGroup Laminations (EGLA.IM)
UK: Science Group (SAG.LN), S4 Capital (SFOR.LN), Team Internet Group (TIG.LN)
CMD/events: Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding (SANN.SW), Fortum (FORTUM.FH) call on new nuclear power feasibility study results, Huhtamaki (HUH1V.FH)
M&A
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- Argentina's government issues preventive measure to suspend Telecom Argentina's acquisition of Telefónica Móviles Argentina
TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com) -- Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway.com issue update on the offer
WPP.LN (WPP Group) -- exploring sale of in flight media service Spafax, could be valued between £50M and £75M -- Sky News
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- Vivendi crosses downwards the 20% threshold of TIM's ordinary shares and voting rights
WG.LN (John Wood Group) -- John Wood Group, Sidara set to extend deadline for takeover talks beyond Monday 24-Mar - FT
TIETO.FH (Tietoevry) -- to sell its Tech Services business to funds advised by Agilitas for €300M; strategic review of the business concluded
FCC chair Carr threatens to challenge M&A deals of companies with DEI policies -- Bloomberg
Trump administration evaluating executive order on housing that may push for privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Bloomberg
Healthcare
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Bayer ordered to pay ~$2.1B in Roundup weedkiller case - Bloomberg
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- responds to French Government's call for vaccine supply of IXCHIQ against Chikungunya outbreak in La Reunion
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- CMD update: will discuss commercial progress with global roll-out of AGAMREE for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystropy
ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience) -- announces CMO Dr. Sumeet Ambarkhane MD will be leaving Alligator by end of Mar-25
Other
RWE.GR (RWE) -- Elliott shares market's disappointment with lack of clarity regarding RWE's commitment to enhance shareholder returns -- Statement
PTEC.LN (Playtech) -- receives antitrust approval in Mexico for revised arrangements related to its strategic agreement with Caliplay
ELE.SM (Endesa) -- CNMC preparing disciplinary proceedings against Endesa over alleged violations of Electricity Sector Law - El Mundo
ELI.BB (Elia Group SA/NV) -- announces a €2.2B equity raising
Ebury's London IPO could be derailed by market volatility - London Times
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $75.5M, (27.1%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
CPI.LN (Capita) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
ELI.BB (Elia Group SA/NV) -- to buy from hold at ING
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
HO.FP (Thales) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
BNZL.LN (Bunzl) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Numis
VIRI.FP (Viridien) -- to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
Downgrades
THULE.SS (Thule Group) -- to hold from buy at SEB
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
MAIRE.IM (MAIRE) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
SIE.GR (Siemens) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
Initiations
BMED.IM (Banca Mediolanum) -- overweight at JPMorgan
WALL.B.SS (Wallenstam) -- re hold at SEB
ISP.IM (Intesa Sanpaolo) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei (0.18%) to 37608.49
Hang Seng +0.10% to 23714.29
Shanghai Composite (0.07%) to 3362.51
S&P futures +42.8 vs prior close of 5718.3
€-$ +0.0025 or +0.23% to 1.0841
$-¥ +0.25 or +0.17% to 149.62
€-¥ +0.66 or +0.41% to 162.19
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