Mar 28 ,2025
Synopsis:
European stocks ended broadly lower Friday. Stoxx600 down (1.4%) for the week. US equities lower in Friday trading, near worst levels. Stocks unable to bounce after largely lower Thursday finish, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq now both solidly lower WTD. Big tech biggest drag to cap off a mixed week across Mag 7. February core PCE up 0.4% m/m, hotter than January's 0.3% (which was also the consensus). Headline PCE was in line at 0.3% m/m. February personal income and spending both printed better than forecasts. Final March UMich consumer sentiment saw 1Y inflation expectations up 0.1pp from preliminary reading to 5.0%, highest since Nov-22, while 5Y up 0.2pp from preliminary to 4.1%, a 32-year high.
Tariff narrative continues to dominate the market discussion, with investors looking ahead to the 2-Apr "Liberation Day" announcements of reciprocal tariffs in hopes of at least diminishing uncertainties. Yet still a good deal of anxiety about potential impacts. Media coverage of week's 25% auto tariff announcement notes potential for higher prices to domestic consumers (though Trump reportedly warned US automakers not to raise prices). Latest updates from trade partners mixed, with a Bloomberg report Friday morning saying the EU is considering concessions in Trump tariff talks, though yesterday Canada's PM Carney stressed that "nothing is off the table" in terms of retaliation. Alongside this, growth fears and hawkish-leaning Fedspeak continue to weigh, though potential positives include month-/quarter-end rebalancing dynamics and cleaner positioning.
On the data front, German GFK consumer sentiment little changed. Mar inflation from France and Spain both supported ECB rate cuts. Eurozone Feb economic sentiment missed expectations. In UK, retail sales rose 1% in Feb but still missed expectations. GDP confirmed 0.1% expansion in Q4-2024. ECB's de Guindos flagged benign French and Spanish inflation data, and suggested inflation to reach target in coming quarters.
In sector performance, defensives such as Food & Beverage, Health Care, Telecom, and Utilities bucked the generally negative trend. Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE.LN) announced appointment of CCO Martin Pibworth as Chief Executive designate. Elsewhere, Pernod Ricard (RI.FP) and Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP) rose following reports the Chinese investigation which led to hefty preliminary import tariffs on French-made cognac and armagnac will conclude later than initially planned. Among other notable gainers today: Ubisoft (UBI.FP) confirmed creation of new subsidiary and €1.16B investment from Tencent. Gold was up +0.78% to $3115.10. Basic Resources, Industrials, Banks, Tech, and Travel&Leisure were the main European sector laggards today.
The week ahead sees EU parliament plenary session, UK parliament committee taking evidence on Chancellor's recent Spring Statement, Mar manufacturing/services PMIs and preliminary CPIs from across the region as well as ECB's Lagarde speech at a conf "The transformative power of AI: economic implications and challenges".
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Utilities +1.57%, Real Estate +1.49%, Telecom +0.87%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.77%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.75%, Health Care +0.28%, Chemicals (0.20%), Insurance (0.55%), Financial Svcs (0.63%), Consumer Products and Services (0.65%)
Underperformers:
Travel & Leisure (2.82%), Basic Resources (2.29%), Technology (1.96%), Banks (1.93%), Energy(1.90%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.82%), Construct & Mtls (0.96%), Retail (0.92%), Autos & Parts (0.82%)
Macro:
Geopolitics/Tariffs/Russia-Ukraine
EU Plans Concessions for Trump After Reciprocal Tariffs Hit -- Bloomberg
Meloni rejects 'childish' choice between Trump and Europe -- FT
Putin Tests How Far Trump Will Go Against Europe on Sanctions -- Bloomberg
Putin suggests interim government for Ukraine with supervision from UN -- BBC
Vance visits Greenland military base as Trump vows to 'have' the island -- BBC
France
Central bank speakers
ECB's Nagel encouraged but warns against 'over-optimism' on inflation target -- Reuters
Spain
Three Spanish Banks Upgraded, The Rest Affirmed On Stronger Industry Dynamics -- S&P
UK
UK economy stagnates under Rachel Reeves's watch, GDP figures show -- Times
Cyprus
'Nimble, dynamic' Cyprus economy may grow 2.5% this year, IMF says -- Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+38.5% DBV.FP (DBV Technologies €1.17, +0.30) -- announces financing of up to $306.9M (€284.5M) to advance Viaskin Peanut Patch
+16.1% GCO.SM (Grupo Catalana Occidente €49.00, +6.80) -- Inoc, S.A. launches takeover bid for company at €50 per share
+11.8% TFIN.IM (Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale €0.27, +0.03) -- FY earnings
+9.9% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF1.80, +0.16) -- company and Memodo sign supply agreement for Italy
+4.2% WAWI.NO (Wallenius Wilhelmsen NOK76.40, +3.05) -- contract
+4.0% SSE.LN (Scottish and Southern Energy £16.11, +0.62) -- appoints CCO as Chief Executive designate
+3.9% ALATI.FP (Actia Group €3.23, +0.12) -- FY earnings
+3.1% RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau €45.30, +1.36) -- French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot says China to delay conclusion of Cognac investigation -- Reuters
+3.0% RI.FP (Pernod Ricard €94.26, +2.76)
+2.5% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £2.66, +0.07) -- transferred buy at Citi
+2.3% REG1V.FH (Revenio Group €26.12, +0.58) -- US FDA cleared the new iCare MAIA microperimeter
+1.8% O4B.GR (OVB Holding €23.00, +0.40) -- FY earnings
+0.7% LDG.LN (Logistics Development Group £0.15, -0.00) -- to tender up to 21.08% of its Voting Share Capital at a Tender Price of 19p per Ordinary Share
+0.7% YIT.FH (Yit €2.31, +0.02) -- restates financial information for 2024 reflecting the change in the segment structure
Trading Lower:
-20.8% GCM.LN (GCM Resources £0.03, -0.01) -- conditionally raised £1.0M (before expenses) by way of a placing of a total of 33.3M new shares at a price of 3.0p/share
-14.0% EKT.GR (EnergieKontor €50.50, -8.20) -- FY earnings
-6.1% WUW.GR (Wüstenrot & Württembergische €13.50, -0.88) -- FY earnings
-5.2% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €21.64, -1.18) -- Autonomous Research downgrade
-3.9% DEQ.GR (Deutsche EuroShop €19.12, -0.78) -- FY earnings
-3.0% DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank €22.15, -0.69) -- appoints new CFO; previously disclosed up to €750M share buyback program will start on 1-Apr
-2.3% MZX.GR (Masterflex €10.40, -0.25) -- FY earnings
-1.7% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €12.77, -0.23) -- confirms creation of new subsidiary and €1.16B investment from Tencent
-0.4% ADEN.SW (Adecco Group CHF27.50, -0.12) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
DACHs: CANCOM (COK.GR), Biotest (BIO.GR), Knaus Tabbert (KTA.GR), BioHarvest Sciences (8MV0.GR), Nynomic (M7U.GR), Softing (SYT.GR), NORMA Group (NOEJ.GR), Friedrich Vorwerk Group (VH2.GR), MBB (MBB.GR), Aumann (AAG.GR), Dragerwerk (DRW3.GR)
France: Vranken-Pommery Monopole (VRAP.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), McPhy Energy (ALMCP.FP), Delfingen Industry (ALDEL.FP)
Nordics: SP Group (SPG.DC), Atlantic Petroleum (ALTA.DC)
Southern Europe: ENAV (ENAV.IM), Piraeus Port Authority (PPA.GA), Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA)
UK: Petershill Partners (PHLL.LN), RTW Biotech Opportunities (RTW.LN), Inspired (INSE.LN), Solidcore Resources (POLYP.LN), YouGov (YOU.LN), Bioventix (BVXP.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Feb Economic Sentiment Indicator 95.2 vs consensus 97.0 and prior 96.3
Mar Consumer Confidence (14.5) vs preliminary (14.5)
Mar Services Sentiment Indicator 2.4 vs consensus 6.7 and prior revised 5.1 from 6.2
Italy Mar Business Confidence 86.0 vs consensus 87.5 and prior revised 86.9 from 87.0
Switzerland Mar KOF Leading Indicators 103.9 vs consensus 102.2 and prior revised 102.6 from 101.7
Spain Mar Preliminary CPI +2.3% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and prior +3.0%
France
Feb
PPI (1.4%) y/y vs consensus (0.1%) and prior revised (2.2%) from (2.1%)
Consumer Spending (0.1%) m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised (0.6%) from (0.5%)
March
Preliminary CPI +0.8% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.8%
Norway Feb Retail Sales (0.1%) m/m vs consensus (0.6%) and prior +1.1%
Sweden Feb Retail Sales +2.8% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and prior revised +3.1% from +3.2%
UK
Q4 GDP +1.5% y/y vs preliminary +1.4%
Feb Retail Sales +2.2% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised +0.6% from +1.0%
Jan Visible Trade Balance (£17.85B) vs consensus (£16.8B) and prior revised (£19.72B) from (£17.45B)
Germany
Apr GfK Consumer Confidence (24.5) vs consensus (22.6) and prior revised (24.6) from (24.7)
Mar Unemployment Change +26K vs consensus +10K and prior +5K
Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.5% and prior 2.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 25): ($0.92) or (1.32%) to $69.00
€-$ +0.0029 or +0.27% to 1.0832
£-$ (0.0003) or (0.02%) to 1.2946
€-£ +0.0027 to 0.8368
S&P 500 (1.75%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.94%
DAX: +12.82%
CAC: +7.25%
MIB: +13.35%
Stoxx 600: +6.79%
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