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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.02%, Hang Seng +0.38%, Shanghai Composite +0.38% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 01 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Tuesday in cautious trading ahead of the White House's tariff announcement. Gains strongest in Taiwan and South Korea as tech stocks recovered. Australia closed higher as the RBA kept rates on hold. Small gains for Greater China and Japan. India sharply lower as it catches up with Monday's falls. Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines on holiday. US futures lower but Europe higher in early trades. US dollar back at the flatline having been lower earlier, AUD a little stronger, won fell to lowest in 16 years. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields higher. Oil futures lower, gold at fresh record high, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies higher.

    • A very cautious day's trading in Asia with most markets bouncing back a little from yesterday's selloff. President Trump is set to announce his reciprocal tariffs at 3pm Washington time Wednesday with country-based levies a likely focus over sectoral ones. Asia equities following through from an uptick in US stocks overnight although traders warned this may have been the result of month and quarter rebalancing, and possibly some short covering ahead of the tariff announcement.

    • In regional developments Tuesday, the RBA left its base rate unchanged at 4.1%, as widely expected, noting in its accompanying statement significant uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical tensions, as well as inflation risks on both sides. BOJ Tankan survey showed sentiment softened with inflation firming. Japan unemployment fell but job openings also fell. March PMIs showed another uptick in Caixin's private and the official China readings with manufacturing frontloading mixed with stimulus effects. Other Asia PMIs showed broad contraction in manufacturing amid lower output and mixed new order components. South Korea export growth was higher y/y but missed expectations. The country's stock market began accepting short selling orders for the first time in 17-months, attracting a wave of overseas-based short selling. China March resale home prices dropped at an accelerated pace.

    • Tokyo Gas (9531.JP) is to buy a 70% stake in Texas shale assets from Chevron for $525M. TSMC (2330.TT) is set to mass produce 2nm chips later this year at a new $45.2B fabrication plant in Kaohsiung. Xiaomi (1810.HK) said it was actively cooperating with police after one of its auto-assistant driving EVs was involved in a fatal accident. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) warned US dealers of possible price hikes amid imminent 25% tariff. LG Energy Solution's (373220.KS) jv with General Motors could sell $2B of assets to its US unit. The South Korea financial regulator has asked Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) for more details on how it plans to spend $2.5B in proceeds from its share issue. IndusInd Bank (532187.IN) is said to have 'aggressively' tapped the certificate of deposits market to raise funds amid a deposit flight.

  • Digest:

    • More tariff developments add to uncertainties:

      • Bloomberg discussed the Tuesday deadline for a review on the US-China Phase One trade deal formulated during President Trump's first term in office. China committed to buying an additional $200B worth of US goods and subsequent official data have shown that purchases fell short, upended by the Covid pandemic. Article added US trade officials will also assess other bilateral issues such as whether US should revoke China's normal trade status estimated to be equivalent to a 30% tariff. China currency manipulation will also be covered. The story noted the review could become a starting point for talks, but unclear whether findings will be published online or submitted privately to the White House. Stakes heightened by reciprocal tariffs set for 2-Apr, while Saturday is the deadline for ByteDance to reach agreement on divesting TikTok to an American firm over national security concerns, after Trump floated the option of tariff concessions in return. Article noted any talks would likely be lengthy, recalling negotiations took years in the first trade war. Reuters reported USTR released a compendium of foreign countries' policies and regulations it regards as trade barriers ahead of the reciprocal tariff announcement. Yet, the piece said it is unclear how the report will impact tariff plans.

    • BOJ Tankan large manufacturer confidence falls for first time in a year amid tariff overhang:

      • Headline BOJ Tankan business conditions DI for large manufacturers was 12 in March, matching expectations, down from 14 in December and marks the first decline in a year. Entirely driven by lower confidence in upstream sectors, outweighing mild improvement downstream. June outlook DI steady at 12. In contrast, large nonmanufacturers DI was 35, above consensus and prior level of 33. Key sectors led the rise -- retail, construction, consumer services. However, June outlook DI points to negative payback to 28. Small firm DIs flat to slightly better. Domestic supply-demand conditions narrowly mixed though overseas conditions somewhat better. All industry employment conditions edged down further into historic lows indicating ongoing acute labor shortages. Inflation indicators broadly firmer with large firm input/output prices climbing with outlook pointing to further increases, albeit small manufacturers lagging. Aggregate inflation expectations edged higher above 2% in all time horizons. Large firm capex growth projections revised down to 8.7% from 11.3%, broadly consistent with a typical consolidation phase. But first FY25 forecast was a relatively conservative 3.1%, above the long-term average, though notably below the starting point in recent years. All-enterprise current profits upgraded to 1.6% growth in FY24, followed by a conservative 1.4% decline in FY25.

    • RBA on hold, sees significant global uncertainties with inflation risks on both sides:

      • RBA left cash rate unchanged at 4.10% as expected. RBA Governor Bullock said board did not consider rate cut at the meeting. Forward guidance repeated board's data-dependent stance, with statement noting underlying inflation easing in-line with February forecasts. However, board needs confidence progress will continue with inflation risks on both sides. Highlighted significant uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to negatively affect global activity. However, inflation could move in either direction due to tariffs. Offered balanced assessment of domestic risks, including from a slower-than-expected pickup in consumption and stronger-than-expected labor market. RBA retained its assessment of tight labor market despite February's employment drop with Bullock warning of upside risks to wages and inflation. Fiscal measures in March budget did not change RBA's forecasts from February. Economists still expect a May rate cut after board has clearer picture on inflation and employment trends, post-election fiscal settings, and US tariff composition. Futures pared odds of May rate to around 70% from 80% prior to today (Bloomberg).

    • PBOC seen easing as soon as April to counter tariffs and seasonal demands for cash:

      • Economists expect PBOC to cut RRR by 50 bp in Q2, along with 10 bp cut to 7D reverse repo rate and potential resumption of bond purchases, in bid to ease liquidity tightness that has pushed 7D repo rate to highest since Mar-2023 (Bloomberg). At least CNY1.8T ($248B) in outright reverse repos and MLF loans mature this month, while net government bond issuance could hit CNY1T. On Monday PBOC said it injected CNY800B ($110.3B) via outright reverse repos in March against CNY700B of maturing funds, resulting in net injection of CNY100B (Reuters). While China's dovish shift to 'moderately loose' monetary policy stance reinforced expectations of further rate cuts this year, policymaker commentary that easing would be implemented "at appropriate time" fit with thoughts they were delaying support until there is better visibility on tariff impact. Trump set to make tariff announcement on Wednesday. On Tuesday he is also expected to receive findings of trade review he ordered in January, which could pave way for additional actions against China, including tariffs, export controls, or revoking Beijing's special trade status (Bloomberg).

    • South Korea exports miss ahead of US reciprocal tariffs:

      • Customs exports rose 3.1% y/y in March, picking up from 0.7% in the previous month. Results were softer than expected, albeit consensus forecasts varied with Bloomberg at 5.0% and Reuters at 3.5%. Business day adjusted measure was up 5.5%, rebounding from a 5.9% drop in February according to Bloomberg calculations. Closely watched semiconductor shipments expanded 11.9%, rebounding from a prior 3% fall, driven by HBM and DDR5 memory chips (Yonhap). PCs including SSDs up 33.1% for the 15th straight rise, wireless communications devices up 13.8% and displays up 2.9%. Autos increased 1.2% as hybrid and ICE strength offset weaker EV sales. In contrast, processed materials (steel, petroleum) were weaker. By region, growth among key markets was led by EU, ASEAN, followed by moderate growth to US. Official take highlighted IT demand despite heightened trade uncertainties. No mention of tariff front-loading, though this factor has permeated through the narrative helping to explain export growth among Asian economies through March. Signal value of growth momentum has been discounted in anticipation of a falloff after reciprocal tariffs are implemented. Ahead of the 2-Apr tariff announcement, Yonhap noted USTR report on trade barriers contained South Korea defense trade policy, emissions regulations on imported cars and drug pricing.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +22.9% 532822.IN (Vodafone Idea): India Government decides to convert outstanding spectrum auction dues into shares, increasing holding to 48.99% from prior 22.60%

      • +14.5% 9603.JP (H.I.S.): reports delayed Q1 results with revenue ¥93.33B, +16% vs year-ago ¥80.28B and FY revenue guidance ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +11.2% 3288.JP (Open House Group): raises FY and H1 guidance; upsizes buyback to ¥25.00B from ¥10.00B and revises dividend guidance

      • +5.6% 9868.HK (XPeng, Inc.): March deliveries 33,205 vehicles, +268% y/y

      • +2.9% 2303.TT (United Microelectronics): GlobalFoundries and United Microelectronics reportedly exploring merger

      • +0.2% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): confirms investment of up to $40.0B (¥5.98T) in OpenAI

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -6.0% 600845.CH (Shanghai Baosight Software): reports FY results with net income attributable and revenue below FactSet estimates

      • -5.9% 7965.JP (Zojirushi): reports Q1 results with net income attributable ¥2.29B, (15%) vs year-ago ¥2.70B

      • -5.9% 123.HK (Yuexiu Property): reports FY results with net income attributable CNY1.04B vs year-ago CNY3.19B

      • -5.5% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): provides details of 29-Mar car crash involving SU7 vehicle in Navigation on Autopilot mode

      • -1.2% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): announces new strategic projects with Renault; Renault to acquire 51%-shareholding of RNAIPL currently held by Nissan; New Alliance agreement amended

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China March

        • Caixin manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs consensus 51.1 and 50.8 in prior month

      • Japan

        • March BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions index 12 vs consensus 12 and 14 in December

          • Large non-manufacturers business conditions index 35 vs consensus 33 and 33 in December

        • February unemployment rate 2.4% vs consensus 2.5% and revised 2.5% in prior month

          • Job offers to applicants ratio 1.24 vs consensus 1.26 vs 1.26 in prior month

        • March final manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs preliminary 48.3 and 49.0 in prior month

      • Australia February

        • Retail sales +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and +0.3% in January

      • South Korea March

        • Trade balance $4.99B vs consensus $6.01B and $4.15B in prior month

          • Exports +3.1% y/y vs consensus +5.0% and +1.0% in prior month

          • Imports +2.3% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and +0.2% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 6.92 or +0.02% to 35624.48

      • Hang Seng: 87.26 or +0.38% to 23206.84

      • Shanghai Composite: 12.69 or +0.38% to 3348.44

      • Shenzhen Composite: 7.09 or +0.35% to 2012.21

      • ASX200: 81.80 or +1.04% to 7925.20

      • KOSPI: 40.27 or +1.62% to 2521.39

      • SENSEX: (1,402.68) or (1.81%) to 76012.24

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.39) or (0.26%) to 149.5780

      • $-KRW: (2.65) or (0.18%) to 1470.2400

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.04% to 0.6250

      • $-INR: +0.10 or +0.12% to 85.5589

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.13% to 7.2674

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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