Apr 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended in negative territory (except for Spain), but off the sessions's lows. Trade continues to dominate headlines with press reports noting President Trump's final tariff proposal remains in flux ahead of Wednesday's announcement due at 16:00 ET. Sources say Trump being presented with multiple options, including the already discussed 20% universal tariff rate, across-the-board tariffs that only apply to certain nations and are not as high as 20% universal tariff. Another involves different tariff rates for each country (10% or 20%) based on trade and non-trade barriers against US. Announcement unlikely to be clearing event, but may at least remove some semblance of an overhang as the focus the focus shifts to macro ahead of NFP on Friday
In the UK, PM Starmer told his cabinet to prepare for a new wave of US tariffs but is still hopeful the UK can secure a trade deal. The US rejected recent UK overtures, which has included concessions on artificial intelligence, tax and agriculture. The London Times estimated that £60B worth of UK exports at threat if Trump announces tariffs of up to 20% on all imports. Meanwhile, UK government also drawing up plans to protect British industries from an influx of cheap foreign goods, with potential quotas for import of cars, pharmaceutical items and other key products. In France, Le Pen's presidential ambitions received an unexpected lifeline as Paris Court of Appeal announced it would rule on her embezzlement case by summer 2026, potentially clearing path to 2027 election (LeMonde, Bloomberg, Euronews). Though convicted of misusing EU Parliament funds and handed an immediate five-year election ban, far-right leader still sees viable route to candidacy. Le Pen, who filed her appeal Tuesday, accused "the system" of purposely deploying tactics to derail her presidential hopes, given her lead in polls. Expedited appeal timeline represents rare display of judicial speed, possibly allowing Le Pen to contest the presidency if her conviction is overturned. Meanwhile, her National Rally party claims to have gathered 300,000 signatures of support and 10,000 new members since the ruling. Despite the legal setback, Le Pen remains defiant, framing the case as politically motivated (FT).
On a light macro-front, update from job website Indeed found UK's annual pay growth for low-wage positions slowed ahead of minimum wage hike. Spain March unemployment fell by (13.3K) vs consensus (2.5K) and prior (6.0K)
On the corporate newsflow front, BMW of North America (BMW.GR) and Stellantis FCA US (STLAM.IM) reported Q1 US sales numbers. Still in autos, Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) and Stellantis (STLAM.IM) amongst carmakers fined for taking part in EU recycling cartel while Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) denies withdrawal of cheaper cars from US. In airlines, Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID) and Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ.LN) posted March traffic numbers. Elsewhere, Reuters reported, citing a pre-close call summary, that Continental's (CON.GR) auto adj EBIT should be around break-even in Q1, with expected production of light vehicles in North America to fall by around (7%). In the UK, SSE (SSE.LN) issued 2024/25 adjusted EPS guidance and confirmed 2026/27 adjusted EPS expectations. In M&A news, out of Italy, banking consolidation maneuvers in focus with ECB authorizing Credit Agricole to increase its stake in Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) to 19.9% whilst Italy Consob approves UniCredit (UCG.IM) offer document in connection with the acquisition of Banco BPM. Elsewhere, Italy's IVASS reviewing Generali (G.IM) internal governance systems ahead of BPCE tie-up. In other deals, Greencore Group reaches agreement in principle on key financial terms of a possible cash and share offer for Bakkavor (BAKK.LN); possible offer implies a value of 200p/share for Bakkavor. Brookfield resumes talks with Grifols (GRF.SM) ahead of renewed takeover bid, with Grifols stating that it did not receive an offer . Also, Svitzer Group (SVITZR.DC) 47% shareholder A.P. Møller Holding A/S makes cash offer of DKK 285/share, valuing Svitzer capital at ~DKK 9.0B; board unanimously recommend holders to accept offer
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Jungfraubahn Holding (JFN.SW), Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW), AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW), Multitude (MULT.GR), Akwel (AKW.FP), Kion Group (KGX.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR), Boiron (BOI.FP), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS) and Nordnet (SAVE.SS) will be among few other companies updating investors, whilst Deutsche Post (DHL.GR) and KBC Group (KBC.BB) are hosting CMDs. Italy, Spain, Sweden Mar services PMI and final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany, UK are the main macro-updates
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Retail +0.76%, Travel & Leisure +0.55%, Construct & Mtls +0.28%, Utilities +0.12%, Banks (0.21%), Media (0.27%), Food & Beverage (0.28%), Chemicals (0.27%), Insurance (0.27%), Autos & Parts (0.30%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.33%), Technology (0.37%), Financial Svcs (0.40%), Oil & Gas (0.59%)
Underperformers: Health Care (1.83%), Telecom (1.12%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.89%), Real Estate (0.88%), Basic Resources (0.76%)
Macro:
President Trump to impose sweeping tariffs, escalating global trade tensions (Reuters)
Europe thought it had a way past Trump's tariffs. He didn't care (Politico)
French Far Right to Keep Up Pressure As Le Pen Gets Lifeline (BBG)
France holds rare defence cabinet meeting over Iran as tensions with US mount (Reuters)
UK floats plan for joint European fund to 'stockpile' weapons (FT)
German wind farms asked to install radar amid security concerns (Reuters)
Appropriate responses to tariffs may be needed - PM Meloni (Ansa)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
DACHs: Jungfraubahn Holding (JFN.SW), Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW), AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW), Multitude (MULT.GR)
France: Akwel (AKW.FP)
Southern Europe: Multitude (FRU.MIL.IM), Seri Industrial (SERI.IM)
Trading Update: Kion Group (KGX.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR), Boiron (BOI.FP), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS)
CMD/events: Deutsche Post (DHL.GR), KBC Group (KBC.BB)
Data:
Economics:
Spain Mar Unemployment Change (13.3K) vs consensus (2.5K) and prior (6.0K)
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 25): +$0.07 or +0.10% to $71.27
€-$ +0.0065 or +0.60% to 1.0857
£-$ +0.0044 or +0.34% to 1.2968
€-£ +0.0021 to 0.8371
S&P 500 +0.42%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.20%
DAX: +12.39%
CAC: +6.38%
MIB: +12.28%
Stoxx 600: +5.69%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE