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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (4.95%) to 8054.98, DAX (4.95%) to 20641.72, CAC40 (4.26%) to 7274.95, STOXX 600 (5.12%) to 496.33

Apr 04 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended sharply lower but off the session's lows. More risk-off on global trade fears and adverse implications for corporate earnings (and capex/hiring), with notable development this morning China retaliating with a 34% tariff on all US imports starting 10-Apr. Uncertainty also a big issue with the mixed messaging from the Trump administration regarding president's openness to negotiate on tariffs. Fits with seemingly divergent goals for tariff policy as Trump has long wanted to rebalance global trade and now wants revenue to fund fiscal priorities, while he has also talked up the idea of reciprocity

    • European industries face distinctly different challenges from Trump's tariffs. Automotive industry most impacted. STLAM.IM seen relatively better positioned among European automakers, while P911.GR, with 100% of US sales imported from Europe, faces acute exposure. Sporting goods sector faces particularly severe headwinds due to Asian manufacturing dependencies. RBC calculates potential earnings impact of 90% for PUM.GR without mitigations. Price increases expected, seen 4-6% for ADS.GR. RBC suggests capital goods companies show limited direct vulnerability, operating "local for local" models, though companies like WRT1V.FH and RAA.GR have heightened exposure. Primary risk seen delayed industrial recovery as businesses postpone capital expenditures amid tariff uncertainty, particularly affecting automation specialists like SIE.GR, ABBN.SW and SU.FP. In pharmaceuticals, temporary relief follows exemption from reciprocal tariffs, though UBS warned continued regulatory threats looming. For medtech, exposure varies significantly with AFX.GR and SN.LN most vulnerable, while COLO.B.DC and CTEC.LN benefit from chronic care product exemptions. Banking sector analysts anticipate increased loan loss provisions as European exporters struggle with tariff pressures, potentially affecting mortgage and personal loan portfolios. Aerospace companies mixed. Morgan Stanley noted AIR.FP having 11% backlog from US customers. Aftermarket-focused engine manufacturers like MTX.GR, RR.LN and SAF.FP may prove more resilient due to pricing power with airlines.

    • Amidst a light macro-calendar, German factory orders weaker-than-forecast. Swiss unemployment rate firmer-than-expected. French industrial production beat, Spanish weak as expected. Construction PMIs in Europe remain in contraction

    • In M&A news, Credit Agricole (ACA.FP)'s Indosuez Wealth Management is planning to acquire Swiss banking institution Banque Thaler (ACA.FP), whilst KKR backed out of a consortium looking to acquire Gerresheimer (GXI.GR); still in Germany, HENSOLDT (HAG.GR) CEO told local press that the company has now has the capacity to carry it into 2026 and 2027 and does not need mergers; in another deal, Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY.SM) holders CVC and BlackRock accepted the €26.5/sh buyback offer to sell 30% to Taqa, OK Diario reported; in the UK, Shell (SHEL.LN) sold its 16.125% stake in Colonial Enterprises to Brookfield Infrastructure Partners for $1.45B; also in the UK oil sector, BP (BP.LN) Chairman Helge Lund will step down in due course

    • On the reporting front, Banco Santander (SAN.SM) expects continued growth in the Q1 and reaffirmed all its 2025 targets whilst - France - Sodexo (SW.FP) issued final H1 results and Alstom (ALO.FP) reports Q4 2024/25 orders

    • Looking ahead to next week's calendars (please see StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: Apr 07-11 attached below), Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), Givaudan (GIVN.SW), JTC (JTC.LN), OMV (OMV.AV), Tesco (TSCO.LN) and Tryg (TRYG.DC) willbe among few other names updating investors, whilst Mar final CPIs from across the region are UK Feb industrial/manufacturing production numbers are the main macro-releases

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Chemicals (1.88%), Food & Beverage (2.10%), Media (2.95%), Persnl & HHold Goods (3.06%), Autos & Parts (3.25%), Technology (3.90%), Retail (3.90%), Utilities (4.01%), Telecom (4.05%), Real Estate (4.09%), Health Care (4.44%), Travel & Leisure (4.75%), Construct & Mtls (4.94%)

      • Underperformers: Banks (8.43%), Basic Resources (7.86%), Oil & Gas (7.14%), Financial Svcs (6.61%), Ind Goods & Svcs (6.33%), Insurance (5.56%)

    • Macro:

      • JD Vance to visit Italy as Meloni calls tariffs 'mistaken' (The Times)

      • Germany's car industry faces up to Trump's tariffs (Guardian)

      • Germany considers withdrawing 1,200-ton gold stockpile from US in riposte to Trump (Telegraph)

      • German poll: majority for return to nuclear energy (dw)

      • Macron calls Trump's tariffs 'brutal and unfounded' and warns France could suspend US investments (Guardian)

      • Starmer to discuss tariff response with allies (FT)

      • UK joined European officials at secret dinner to plot radical rearmament fund (Politico)

      • US will know within weeks if Russia is serious about peace, Rubio says (Reuters)

      • Greece to Spend €25B on Defense Over Next 12 Years (BBG)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +49.4% BSGR.NA (B&S Group €5.85, +1.94) -- Sarabel to make recommended €6.15 per share offer

        • +2.5% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK51.50, +1.25) -- Q1 update

        • +2.5% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK5.27, +0.14) -- study presentation

        • +2.3% KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik SEK66.69, +1.52) -- proposes new Chair

        • +0.4% GARO.SS (GARO SEK19.10, +0.08) -- proposes new Chair

      • Notable Decliners

        • -14.5% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer €54.50, -9.35) -- KKR backs out of consortium looking to acquire Gerresheimer - Bloomberg

        • -11.3% IF.IM (Banca Ifis €18.58, -2.38) -- approves the strategic guidelines 2026-28 on a stand-alone basis

        • -10.4% SCR.FP (SCOR SE €23.46, -2.74) -- placed under examination for facts alleged against its former chairman

        • -9.6% UCG.IM (UniCredit €43.40, -4.65) -- Italy leaning towards approving Unicredit's bid to acquire Banco BPM with some unspecified prescriptions - Reuters

        • -8.8% SAN.SM (Banco Santander €5.43, -0.53) -- expects continued growth in the Q1, reaffirms all 2025 targets

        • -8.0% BAMI.IM (Banco BPM €8.08, -0.73) -- Italy leaning towards approving Unicredit's bid to acquire Banco BPM with some unspecified prescriptions - Reuters

        • -8.0% PNDORA.DC (Pandora DKK873.40, -75.60) -- issues estimates of total impact to US tariffs

        • -7.7% HAG.GR (HENSOLDT €57.00, -4.80) -- CEO says now has the capacity to carry it into 2026 and 2027; sees need for cooperation in its industry at the moment, not mergers -- FAZ

        • -7.4% BP.LN (BP £3.71, -0.30) -- Chairman Helge Lund to step down in due course; board has initiated a succession process

        • -7.2% ALO.FP (Alstom €18.04, -1.43) -- Q1 update

        • -7.0% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £24.97, -1.86) -- to sell its 16.125% stake in Colonial Enterprises to Brookfield Infrastructure Partners for $1.45B

        • -6.4% SAF.FP (Safran €217.80, -14.90) -- European Commission approves Safran's acquisition of part of Collins Aerospace's actuation business, subject to conditions

        • -6.3% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €8.68, -0.60) -- reportedly idles plants in Mexico and Canada citing tariffs - CNBC

        • -6.1% SW.FP (Sodexo €54.00, -3.55) -- reports full H1 results in line with 20-Mar prelim announcement

        • -5.6% PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips €20.56, -1.23) -- China's MOFCOM initiates anti-dumping investigation into imports of medical CT tubes from the US and India

        • -4.5% ACA.FP (Credit Agricole €15.63, -0.73) -- subsidiary Indosuez Wealth Management plans to acquire Swiss banking institution Banque Thaler

        • -3.7% NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group €25.34, -0.98) -- shareholders CVC and BlackRock accept the €26.5/sh buyback offer to sell 30% to Taqa - OK Diario

        • -3.4% IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications €10.04, -0.36) -- to share long-term growth strategy at upcoming 2025 Capital Markets Day

        • -2.1% PPC.GA (Public Power Corp. €13.32, -0.28) -- presents its €5.75B strategic investment roadmap to convert former lignite sites in Western Macedonia into a green energy and technology hub

        • -1.4% FAG.SS (Fagerhult Group SEK39.40, -0.55) -- to acquire the Trato TLV Group

        • -0.9% BN.FP (Danone €73.02, -0.66) -- Fonterra holding firm on selling Mainland Group business as a whole - The Australian

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Trading Update: Repsol (REP.SM), Shell (SHEL.LN),Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), Aker BP (AKRBP.NO)

      • CMD/events: ACOMO (ACOMO.NA), Ion Beam Applications (IBAB.BB)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Germany

        • Feb Factory Orders 0.0% m/m vs consensus +3.5% and prior revised (5.5%) from (7.0%)

        • Mar Construction PMI 40.3 vs consensus 43.0 and prior 41.2

      • France Feb Manufacturing Production +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised (0.5%) from (0.6%)

      • Spain Feb Industrial Production (1.9%) y/y vs consensus (2.0%) and prior revised (1.2%) from (1.0%)

      • Sweden Mar preliminary CPI +0.5% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior +1.3%

      • Switzerland Mar Unemployment Rate (sa) 2.8% vs consensus 2.7% and prior 2.7%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (May 25): ($4.84) or (7.23%) to $62.11

      • €-$ (0.0064) or (0.58%) to 1.0991

      • £-$ (0.0175) or (1.34%) to 1.2925

      • €-£ +0.0064 to 0.8503

      • S&P 500 (4.30%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: (1.44%)

        • DAX: +3.68%

        • CAC: (1.43%)

        • MIB: +1.35%

        • Stoxx 600: (2.22%)

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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