Apr 09 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended firmly lower across the board, with most benchmark indices down ~2-3% or more. Stoxx Europe 600 now down some (12%) MTD. Markets remain sensitive to tariff headlines with US-China trade tensions contributing to latest down leg after White House said 104% tariffs to go into effect on 9-Apr. US also sharply raising tariffs on small Chinese parcels. China Finance Ministry to raise tariffs on US goods to 84%, starting 10-Apr. However, Trump giving positive signals on trade talks with Japan and South Korea Trump also foreshadowed announcement of product-specific tariffs, noting pharmaceuticals will be hit with 'major' levy. EU adopted tariffs on €21B of US goods in metals.
European Health Care biggest sector decliner today, (down 5.8%), following Trump touting major tariff on pharma imports yesterday. In response, EU pharma firms warned of tariff impact on supply chains and urged regulatory overhaul. Pharma heavy Swiss SMI and Danish OMX were among the worst index performers today, down (4.2%) and (6.3%), respectively, weighed down by the likes of Novartis (NOVN.SW) (6.4%) and Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) (6.9%).
Oil under pressure. WTI now trading at lowest levels since early 2021 after worst five day losing streak in three years. Crude options are at their most bearish since late 2021, as of Tuesday's close. Trade/tariffs still the big story. Gold up 3.7% to above $3,101/oz after four consecutive sessions of weaker levels.
Reuters sources said ECB sees much bigger-than-anticipated hit from US trade tariffs. Staff have been asked to produce new numbers for next week's meeting. ECB's Knot says trade wars are stagflationary shock in the long-term. BoE deputy governor Lombardelli said higher US tariffs will weaken UK growth but highlighted too early to judge inflation impact. The BoE Financial Policy Committee warned of risks of further market corrections in its latest policy meeting. Highlighted several risks associated with fragmentation in global trade in goods and financial markets
In Germany, Merz's conservatives and center-left SPD swiftly reached coalition agreement to form Germany's next government, finalizing deal just 45 days after snap elections - remarkably quick by German standards (Politico, Reuters). Agreement comes at a critical moment as Germany faces dual threats from President Trump's 20% tariffs on EU goods, which could severely impact Germany's export-driven economy, and continued security concerns from Russia.
When it comes to upcoming Q1 earnings season, some debate about whether companies will use tariffs to kitchen-sink guidance, scrap it altogether, or simply not bake them in.
On the corporate front highlights today, TRATON (8TRA.GR) reports preliminary Q1 operating income below consensus, and said its FY outlook remains subject to future geopolitical developments, particularly the impacts of US tariff policies. Recruiter group PageGroup (PAGE.LN) said its outlook for FY 2025 was uncertain; not providing forward-looking guidance; Q1 gross profit was in line and group announced new cost savings. ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) reportedly considering options for materials trading business. JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN) shares jumped on back of Q4 trading update: sees FY PBT £915-935M ex-items in line with Jan-25 guidance and FactSet £921.3M; FY26 PBT in line with consensus expectations excluding any potential impact from tariffs change. JD also issued a medium term plan update; announced £100M share buyback programme. Genesis option buyout was also deferred. Luxury sector in focus as Capri Holdings' talks to sell Versace brand to Prada said to be at risk of falling apart amid market volatility. Also of note, Deutsche Bank downgraded Richemont (CFR.SW) and Kering (KER.FP) as part of a wider sector note.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Retail (1.11%), Media (2.11%), Utilities (2.16%), Travel & Leisure (2.16%), Chemicals (2.18%), Telecom (2.36%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (2.36%), Construct & Mtls (2.78%), Consumer Products and Services (3.04%), Insurance (3.06%), Banks (3.14%), Ind Goods & Svcs (3.22%), Autos & Parts (3.39%), Financial Svcs (3.42%)
Underperformers:
Health Care (5.79%), Energy(4.98%), Real Estate (3.95%), Basic Resources (3.72%), Technology (3.67%)
Macro:
EU takes revenge on Trump's tariffs as countries approve €20B+ retaliation -- POLITICO
ECB braces for bigger-than-anticipated growth hit from tariffs - Reuters , citing sources
UK Borrowing Costs Hit Highest Since 1998 Amid Global Bond Rout -- Bloomberg
Trump tariffs threaten global growth and raise risk of 'severe shocks', says Bank of England -- Guardian
Bank of Finland's Rehn says the case for ECB cutting in April is supported by downside risks materialising - release
Top ECB policymaker warns that 'worst-case scenarios' are materialising -- FT
Germany's Merz seals coalition deal under pressure to face challenges posed by Trump -- POLITICO
UK mortgage lenders cut rates after Trump tariffs -- BBC
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+125.0% ASA.NO (Atlantic Sapphire NOK10.58, +7.50) -- trading update
+9.5% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £0.00, +0.06) -- Q4 trading update / medium term plan update; announces £100M share buyback programme
+8.8% SAGA.LN (Saga Plc £1.26, +0.11) -- reports FY Underlying Profit Before Tax from continuing operations £37.2M vs FactSet £39.9M
+5.1% AGR.LN (Assura £0.48, +0.02) -- agrees terms of a recommended cash offer by Sana Bidco Limited; rejects PHP (PH.LN) offer
+4.9% OHB.GR (OHB SE €71.00, +3.40) -- OHB to deliver new satellites to German Armed Forces - Handelsblatt
+4.7% DEME.BB (DEME Group €130.40, +5.80) -- DEME to acquire Norwegian offshore wind infrastructure company Havfram; agreement represents aggregated transaction value of ~€900M
+4.7% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.03, +0.05) -- FDA approves updated label removing REMS requirement for Idorsia's TRYVIO; publication of "Aprocitentan for Blood Pressure Reduction in Black Patients" in April edition of Hypertension
+3.7% FLO.LN (Flowtech Fluidpower £0.49, +0.02) -- earnings
+3.6% ALNG.NO (Awilco LNG NOK2.98, +0.09) -- publishes annual report
+2.5% ALZCUR.SS (AlzeCure Pharma SEK2.60, +0.06)
+1.1% LEI.GR (Leifheit €17.90, +0.20) -- earnings
+0.8% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €0.00, +0.07) -- considering options for materials trading business - Bloomberg
Notable Decliners
-16.7% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €111.20, -21.90) -- convertible bonds placement
-9.2% OXB.LN (OXB £2.45, -0.24) -- reports FY EBITDA (£15.3M) vs FactSet (£16.9M) [5 est, (£19)-(14.1M)]
-8.6% DSV.DC (DSV A/S DKK1,105.00, -99.50) -- EU clears DSV's acquisition of Schenker (+SCH.GR)
-7.9% BO.DC (Bang & Olufsen DKK12.04, -0.98) -- reports Q3 EPS DKK0.00 vs FactSet DKK0.01 [2 est, DKK0.00-0.02]; narrows FY24-25 outlook
-7.8% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €0.00, -2.14) -- reports preliminary Q1 operating income €645M ex-items vs FactSet €898.5M [7 est, €754-988M]; reaffirms FY guidance
-6.4% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF2.04, -0.14) -- convertible bondholders approve amendments as part of corporate restructuring
-6.0% BP.LN (BP £3.40, -0.21) -- US revokes licenses for BP and Shell gas projects in Venezuelan waters - Reuters
-5.6% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK239.00, -14.10) -- sees weak liquids, LNG trading income in Q1 -- Reuters
-5.4% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.27, -0.02) -- to postpone Tender 5 sales for Cullinan Mine due to tariffs; unlikely to achieve its net free cashflow generation target for FY 2025
-5.4% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.27, -0.02) -- partial Tender 5 results: to postpone Tender 5 sales for Cullinan Mine due to tariffs, total revenue YTD FY 2025 from rough diamond sales ex-Cullinan Mine goods is $103M
-5.0% AAL.LN (Anglo American £18.04, -0.92) -- Peabody Energy (BTU) issues statement following Moranbah North event; reviewing all options related to Anglo American transaction
-4.9% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK229.70, -11.70) -- KKR (KKR) noted to be near €2.5B deal for EQT's (EQT.SS) Karo Healthcare - Bloomberg
-4.9% FOYRK.GA (Fourlis Holdings €3.73, -0.19) -- earnings
-4.2% SAGA.NO (Saga Pure NOK1.28, -0.05) -- Tycoon launches mandatory offer for all remaining shares in Saga Pure at NOK 1.2822 in cash per share
-3.6% CAST.SS (Castellum AB SEK98.16, -3.66) -- CEO to step down in 2026
-3.5% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF957.80, -35.40) -- provides initial assessment of impact of US tariffs on its portfolio
-3.4% ADMCM.FH (Admicom €44.45, -1.65) -- earnings
-3.4% MCOV.B.SS (Medicover SEK189.40, -6.60) -- acquires Polish fitness club operator CityFit; transaction values CityFit at PLN 565M (approximately €131M) including assumed net debt with right-of-use liabilities
-2.9% CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals £1.48, -0.04) -- completes sale of its 76.1% shareholding in Copper Bay Ltd to Guardian Metals PLC
-2.5% SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore €16.55, -0.42) -- signs $400M sale and 8-year leaseback agreement for FPSO Cidade de Paraty
-2.4% PAGE.LN (PageGroup £2.53, -0.06) -- reports Q1 Gross profit £194.2M, (12%) vs year-ago £220.0M
-2.4% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €86.00, -2.08) -- Q1 worldwide deliveries of 2.13M vehicles, +1.4% y/y
-1.9% ENGCON.B.SS (engcon SEK86.00, -1.70) -- acquires minority stakes in three subsidiaries for ~SEK126M
-1.3% ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco SEK138.85, -1.85) -- acquires compressed air distributor in Indiana, USA; terms undisclosed
-1.3% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK51.95, -0.70) -- Norway's FSA concludes Grieg Seafood's Q4 report contains errors and omissions relating to disclosure requirements in IAS 36 impairment of assets (11ET)
-0.6% BTU (Peabody Energy $11.26, -0.07) -- issues statement following Moranbah North event; reviewing all options related to Anglo American transaction
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), R. Stahl (RSL2.GR), CENIT (CSH.GR), tonies (TNIE.GR)
France: Lepermislibre (ALLPL.FP)
Nordics: Europris (EPR.NO), Investment AB Oresund (ORES.SS), Episurf Medical (EPIS.B.SS)
UK: Tesco (TSCO.LN), Devolver Digital (DEVO.LN), hVIVO (HVO.LN)
Trading Update: DocMorris (DOCM.SW), COMET Holding (COTN.SW), Fagron (FAGR.BB)
Traffic: Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW)
CMD/events: Givaudan (GIVN.SW), Natwest (NWG,LN) Q+A with Chairman and CEO virtual shareholder event at 18:00BST
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Feb Trade Balance DKK25.7B vs consensus DKK30.6B and prior revised DKK30.5B from DKK28.6B
Norway Mar PPI +11.5% y/y vs consensus +21.5% and prior +23.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 25): ($2.43) or (4.08%) to $57.15
€-$ +0.0098 or +0.90% to 1.1056
£-$ +0.0005 or +0.04% to 1.2770
€-£ +0.0064 to 0.8649
S&P 500 (0.20%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (6.04%)
DAX: (1.20%)
CAC: (7.01%)
MIB: (4.26%)
Stoxx 600: (7.43%)
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