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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.01%), Hang Seng (1.91%), Shanghai Composite +0.26% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 16 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia stocks fell almost everywhere Wednesday. The Hang Seng led the region lower with mainland boards mixed as Shanghai rallied into the close. Sharp losses in Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei as technology stocks weighed. Australia pared early gains to end flat, India and Singapore also flat. Southeast Asia closed lower. US futures steeply down, Europe opened lower. US dollar sinking, strong gains for the yen, offshore yuan flat but onshore weaker. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields lower across tenors. Crude oil futures sharply down, gold above $3,300/oz for the first time, base metals down.

    • Asia equites reacted negatively to news Nvidia would book a $5.5B quarterly charge from US restrictions on chip sales to China as well as a poor end to trading on Wall Street overnight. Gold also surged to fresh record highs, the dollar is back to last week's lows and long-dated Treasury yields are rising again, indicating risk being taken off the table across assets. On top of the Nvidia news, President Trump also launched a probe into critical mineral tariffs, adding to the ongoing pharma and chip investigations with the assumption tariffs will soon follow while Beijing asked China-based airline carriers to stop taking delivery of Boeing aircraft. On the diplomatic front, the White House said 'the ball was in China's court' in terms of asking the US for a trade deal.

    • In regional developments, China's Q1 GDP grew more than expected and monthly economic activity data also topped forecasts but economists warned these were likely the last set of data before the impact of tariffs would be felt. Q2 economic growth likely to slow considerably q/q while economic activity could see industrial output sink and retail sales dependent on stimulus programs. China new home prices fell again in March but the decline showed a deceleration from February. BOJ Governor Ueda said economic developments have moved towards a "bad scenario". Reuters March Tankan survey showed an improvement in current conditions but the outlook was softer.

    • Kyoto Financial Group (5844.JP) says selling cross shareholdings and mergers are still options for it (Bloomberg). TSMC (2330.TT) could be considering advancing by 12 months its second fab production plant in Arizona. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) reported its lowest iron ore output in five years after a cyclone impacted production. Ampol (ALD>AU) cited weakness in Singapore refining profits for its margin slump and sales decline.

  • Digest:

    • China GDP, activity data broadly better than expected:

      • Q1 GDP expanded 5.4% y/y, above consensus 5.1%, following 5.4% growth in the previous quarter. Some conflictions from sequential growth of 1.2% q/q, lower than consensus 1.4% and slowing from 1.6% in the prior quarter. Activity data finished the quarter on a solid note. Industrial production rose 7.7% y/y in March, notably above consensus and prior Jan-Feb gain of 5.9%. Almost all major product categories logged growth --particularly autos, PCs smartphones among final demand products along with solar cells and integrated circuits. Aggregate capacity utilization improved 0.5 ppt y/y in Q1 to 74.1%. Retail sales were up 5.9% y/y in March, also notably above consensus 4.3%, improving from 4.0% in Jan-Feb. Details were similarly broadly positive with only petroleum and building materials declining. Fixed asset investment growth unexpectedly edged firmer to 4.2% y/y in Jan-Mar from consensus and prior reading of 4.1% in Jan-Feb. Closely watched real estate component posted marginal deterioration to a 9.9% drop from 9.8%. Largely reflected similar dip in aggregate financing as well as smaller narrowing in sales declines by value. New construction starts remained down by more than 20% for housing though some dispersion between relatively better commercial buildings and steep drop in offices. FAI remained supported by 5.8% growth in infrastructure. Urban unemployment rate also unexpectedly declined to 5.2% vs consensus and prior 5.3%.

    • China new home prices steady in March:

      • New home prices in China were flat in March based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, following 0.1% dip in February. New home prices were down 4.5%% y/y, compared with 4.8% decline in February. NBS statistician said top-tier cities outperformed lower-tier ones in both new home and second-hand home prices. Meanwhile most cities saw narrower declines across new and second-home prices on annual basis. Bloomberg noted ease in home price declines seen as positive sign for authorities making efforts to end yearslong housing slump that has weighed on Chinese economy for years. Xinhua added Premier Li Qiang said China's real estate market still has lot of room for development and called for efforts to further unleash market potential. China Index Holdings expected more supporting measures in Q2 as Beijing moves to stabilize domestic demand amid growing external uncertainty.

    • Nvidia anticipates $5.5B charge in Q1 from H20 export restrictions to China:

      • Nvidia (NVDA) sold off after hours Tuesday in reaction to a filing that Q1 earnings expected to include up to ~$5.5B in charges related to H20 export restrictions to China. Noted US government requires license for exports to China for H20 integrated circuits or others of a comparable memory bandwidth which will remain in place for the indefinite future, addressing the risk that such products may be used to develop a supercomputer in China. Follows surging China orders for H20 from companies including Tencent (700.HK), Alibaba (9988.HK) and ByteDance fueled by demand for low-cost AI models from DeepSeek (Reuters). Institute for Progress said Tencent has already installed H20s in a facility used to train a large model, "very likely in breach of existing controls" and added DeepSeek's supercomputer used to train their V3 model is also likely in breach of the same restrictions. Bloomberg suggested the writedown poses the risk that Nvidia's annual revenue may fall short of $14-18B and persistence of restrictions could normalize China data center exposure back to early 2024 levels before the H20 ramp up.

    • Trump starts probe on critical mineral imports:

      • US President Trump signed an executive order Tuesday for a Commerce Department investigation into critical mineral supply chains and methods to boost US production while cutting reliance on imports (FT, Bloomberg, Reuters). If the Commerce Secretary finds threats to national security, tariffs may be imposed to replace reciprocal tariffs in a similar manner to earlier announcements for semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports. Latest order covers rare earth elements, uranium as well as processed critical minerals and derivative products. Administration noted US relies on imports in at least 15 critical minerals with 70% of rare earths coming from China. Reuters noted US lithium extraction and processing is scant, has only one nickel mine but no smelter, no cobalt mine or refinery, while copper processing capacity limited by only two smelters. Trump's order follows China's export restrictions on rare earths in response to Trump tariffs, expected to have broad impacts across the US, Europe and Japan. FT cited a recent Washington Quarterly article noting Beijing has expanded its toolkit to retaliate against US and other countries through such export restrictions instead of tit-for-tat tariff hikes.

    • Markets focus on lack of progress in US trade talks:

      • Latest tariff-related pessimism was reinforced by slow progress in US trade talks with major trading partners. White House conveyed a Trump statement placing the onus on Beijing to make a deal in another sign of gridlock as both sides dig in their heels with no end in sight for the tit-for-tat ramp in trade barriers (Bloomberg). In China's latest response, Bloomberg sources said airlines were ordered not to take further deliveries of Boeing (BA) jets and halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies. Trump criticized the move as reneging on a deal signed during his first administration. Some consolation from indications Trump wants to sign off on bilateral deals with at least 15 countries. However, markets drew attention to a Yahoo Finance interview with Treasury Secretary Bessent conceding that not all deals will be complete within the 90-day grace period. Reuters cited a WSJ article indicating the Trump administration plans to use tariff negotiations as leverage to discourage trading partners from dealing with China. Furthermore, Bloomberg sources indicated EU trade chief Sefcovic saw little clarity on the US stance after a meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer in Washington Monday. US officials said to have indicated the 20% reciprocal tariffs (reduced to 10% for 90 days) and other sector levies including cars and metals would not be removed outright.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +3.9% 601111.CH (Air China): reports March traffic +2.0% y/y

      • +3.0% 5844.JP (Kyoto Financial Group): becoming more open to mergers and selling some cross-shareholdings

      • +2.1% 7649.JP (Sugi Holdings): reports March Sugi Pharmacy Co. total store sales +19.6% y/y

      • +1.7% 2039.HK (China International Marine Containers (Group)): guides Q1 net income attributable CNY450.0-650.0M vs year-ago CNY83.6M

      • +0.9% 1055.HK (China Southern Airlines): considering listing cargo unit in Hong Kong

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -2.5% 2330.TT (Taiwan Semiconductor): rumoured its second fab in Arizona to advance by one year for small-scale trial production in 2027 as a result of accelerating manufacturing pace in the U.S

      • -1.3% 3382.JP (Seven & i): reports March 7-Eleven, Inc. same-store merchandise sales (0.6%) y/y

      • -0.8% 7267.JP (Honda Motor): to increase US manufacturing to meet 90% of local demand

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Q1 GDP +5.4% y/y vs consensus +5.1% and +5.4% in prior quarter

          • GDP +1.2% q/q vs consensus +1.4% and +1.6% in prior quarter

        • March industrial production +7.7% y/y vs consensus +5.9% and +5.9% in Jan-Feb

          • Retail sales +5.9% y/y vs consensus +4.3% and +4.0% in Jan-Feb

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +4.2% y/y vs consensus +4.1% and +4.1% in Jan-Feb

          • Urban unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.3% and 5.3% in Jan-Feb

        • March new house prices 0.0% m/m vs (0.1%) in prior month

          • House prices (4.5%) y/y vs (4.8%) in prior month

      • Japan

        • April Reuters Tankan manufacturers sentiment index +9 vs -1 in prior month

          • Service sector index +30 vs +25 in prior month

        • February core machinery orders +4.3% m/m vs consensus +1.2% and (3.5%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (347.14) or (1.01%) to 33920.40

      • Hang Seng: (409.29) or (1.91%) to 21056.98

      • Shanghai Composite: 8.34 or +0.26% to 3276.00

      • Shenzhen Composite: (20.97) or (1.10%) to 1878.92

      • ASX200: (2.80) or (0.04%) to 7758.90

      • KOSPI: (29.98) or (1.21%) to 2447.43

      • SENSEX: (72.42) or (0.09%) to 76662.47

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (1.10) or (0.77%) to 142.1460

      • $-KRW: (5.15) or (0.36%) to 1422.7900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.06% to 0.6348

      • $-INR: (0.06) or (0.07%) to 85.6707

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.09% to 7.3223

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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