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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.35%, Hang Seng +1.61%, Shanghai Composite +0.13% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 17 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Thursday. Japan's main boards, the Hang Seng and Kospi all closing with solid gains. More modest advances in India, Australia, South Korea and Singapore. Southeast Asia more mixed. US futures higher, Europe opened with losses. US dollar rallying from overnight lows, AUD and NZD losing some ground, yen weakening alongside offshore yuan. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Some relief gains for oil prices, precious metals mixed, base metals also mixed as copper declines but iron ore slightly higher.

    • US markets closed lower overnight but with a modest uptick into the close, and that positive momentum carried through to Asia trading Thursday. The modest bounceback in Treasury yields and the US dollar also added to confidence as traders respond with optimism over trade negotiations stemming from progress in US-Japan talks. Investors also brushed off Beijing's comments that it was refusing to play the US's 'numbers game' when it comes to tariffs.

    • In regional developments, BOJ Governor Ueda and board member Nakagawa repeated need to monitor tariff-related uncertainty and to conduct policy without preconceptions. Japan export growth slowed by more than expected following February's frontloading. BOK kept interest rates unchanged as expected but opened the door to a cut in May. New Zealand Q1 inflation rebounded, Australian unemployment rate rose by less than expected.

    • Tencent (700.HK) and Douyin have launched programs to help China exporters pivot to domestic markets. TSMC (2330.TT) dismissed talk of a tie up with Intel, saying it was not engaged in discussions to form a joint venture or to share its technology with any other company. Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) has been asked by South Korea's financial regulator to revise its share issue plan, saying the original could potentially cause significant investor misunderstanding. BHP (BHP.AU) said China boosting domestic consumption is key to continued growth in the global economy.

  • Digest:

    • White House hails 'big progress' in trade talks with Japan, no discussion on FX:

      • Nikkei cited remarks by President Trump on Truth Social that trade talks with Japan yielded "big progress." Article noted that Trump earlier signaled discussions to lower the 24% reciprocal tariff rate would hinge on Tokyo's willingness to share more of the burden to maintain US military bases in Japan as Trump announced he would attend the talks personally. Japan lead trade negotiator Akazawa told reporters after the first round of talks in Washington that both sides agreed to aim for a fast resolution within the 90-day grace period (Nikkei). Japan called for tariff reduction/exemption while US demands apparently pertained to the bilateral security pact. Akazawa noted there was no discussion on FX (a key focus of the market). In Tokyo, Prime Minister Ishiba praised progress opening up the next stage of talks and reaffirmed plans for a face-to-face meeting with Trump (Nikkei). Story added that Cabinet ministerial level talks reached consensus to deliver a deal to respective leaders as soon as possible, aim to set the next round of negotiations some time in April with discussions extended to working level officials. Still no clarification on specifics following extensive press discussions. Potential Japan concessions included a long-term guarantee to buy LNG from Alaska, increase imports of rice and possibly autos.

    • BOJ board member Nakagawa's speech stays close to MPC consensus amid tariff uncertainties:

      • No surprises in BOJ board member Nakagawa's speech, stating that future conduct of monetary policy will depend on developments in economic activity and financial conditions. Reaffirmed the core stance that rate hikes will continue if the outlook is realized. But with significantly high uncertainties stemming from factors such as tariff impacts, MPC will make policy decisions as appropriate without any preconceptions, echoing earlier remarks from Governor Ueda. Description of the economic assessment and outlook hued closely to the MPC consensus conveyed in recent policy statements and outlook reports. Outlined three risks contributing to high uncertainties. First covered external turbulence mainly stemming from US tariffs. Added that since the extent of impacts largely depend on future course of tariff policies, it is necessary to monitor developments with high vigilance. Second risk was corporate wage and price-setting behavior. Tariff impacts notwithstanding, ongoing progress in wage/price increases poses the risk of stronger than expected inflation pressure. Third consideration was consumer sentiment, highlighting potential pressures from cost of living, while uncertainties stemming from tariffs and the domestic economy may also weigh on confidence.

    • TSMC maintains 2025 revenue guidance despite tariff uncertainty:

      • Taiwan Semiconductor (2330.TT) reaffirmed 2025 guidance of mid-20% revenue growth, and maintained capex guidance of $38-42B(Bloomberg). Earlier, firm reported Q1 EPS and revenue ahead of expectations with GM at the upper end of guidance range. Q2 revenue also ahead of estimates with group citing demand for 3nm and 5nm chips. During earnings call company said it is not witnessing tariff impact on consumer behavior so far. Expressed confidence about AI chip demand from American companies like AAPL, underscoring need to boost production capacity. In response to early April reports about potential JV with INTC, company also denied JVs or tech transfers being undertaken. Prior to earnings there was a lot of interest around whether TSMC would revise outlook down due to tariffs and export restrictions. Stock recently touched 11-month low after registering peak-to-trough fall of 30%, partly reflecting an anticipated hit to sales from economic impact of Trump's tariffs as well his promised tariffs on semiconductors. Questions around pace of US AI expansion and related implications for chip demand have weighed on sentiment while tightened US export controls on AI chips adding to the demand uncertainty.

  • BofA Asia FMS reveals major bearish shift before the 90-day tariff pause:

    • BofA Asia FMS indicated a major bearish shift in regional sentiment, though most responses were submitted before President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Net 89% now anticipate a weaker economy. Earnings expectations collapsed with net 78% expecting a deteriorating Asia profit cycle with a similar proportion viewing consensus earnings estimates as too high. Expected returns turned negative for the first time since Oct-22. Dramatic turnaround in China views after last month's positive developments. Economic outlook saw net 58% bearish, the weakest since the Covid pandemic despite record-high monetary easing expectations. China dropped to the lowest in the region for country allocation, tied with Thailand, after advancing to second place last month. Japan optimism also eroded with net 26% bearish on macro, leading to a sharp reduction in expected returns -- both at survey lows. However, Japan retained top spot in country allocations given the high base. India returned to second place after languishing in the past six months. On sectors, Asia ex-Japan portfolios were overweight defensives led by consumer staples and utilities. Preference for semis plummeted with net 59% foreseeing a chip cycle downturn, the highest on record. Japan banks remained the top choice while utilities ranked second in an extension of defensive plays. China AI/semis remained the favorite theme, albeit eroding notably, followed by buyback/dividend.

  • Bank of Korea keeps base rate unchanged to steady won, signals probable cut in May:

    • Bank of Korea kept its policy rate steady at 2.75%, as expected by majority of economists. Bank said it was keeping rates unchanged to stabilize won amid uncertainties over the US's tariff program, also wanted more time to assess impact on economy of previous cuts. Last week, won slipped to 1,490 per dollar, weakest since height of GFC, while March inflation picked up to 2.1% and Seoul house prices also spiked unexpectedly. Bloomberg cited economist saying President Trump's temporary tariff reprieve for auto exporters gave BOK breathing room to pause. Governor Rhee said there was 'significant downside' risks to economy given intensity of US tariff policy; believed uncertainty over future growth path so great it is difficult to even set basic scenario. Bank said all six board members were open to interest rate cut in upcoming meetings with analysts cited by Reuters saying rates could go as low as 2.25% by year's end.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +4.9% 4519.JP (Chugai Pharmaceutical): announces first positive results from phase 3 trial of Vabysmo injection 120mg for angioid streaks

    • +3.1% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): repurchased 1.4M shares at $13.94-14.22/ share

    • +3.0% 8473.JP (SBI Holdings): to raise stake in Kyobo Life Insurance to more than 20% from 9.3%

    • +2.8% 000150.KS (Doosan): denies report it is bidding for SK Siltron

    • +2.8% 1024.HK (Kuaishou Technology): repurchased 1M shares at HK$47.85-49.1/ share

    • +0.7% 3481.TT (Innolux): sees influx of rush orders in Q2 due to temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -2.1% 2367.HK (Giant Biogene Holding): to launch HK$2.33B placement at HK$66.65/share

    • -0.9% 2330.TT (TSMC): intends to raise price on 4nm products at its Arizona plant by 30%

Data:

  • Economic:

    • Japan

      • March trade balance ¥544.1B vs consensus ¥464.9B and revised ¥590.5B in prior month

        • Exports +3.9% y/y vs consensus +4.4% and +11.4% in prior month

        • Imports +2.0% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and (0.7%) in prior month

    • Australia

      • March employment +32.2K m/m vs consensus +40.0K and revised (57.5K) in February

        • Unemployment rate 4.1% vs consensus 4.2% and revised 4.0% in February

        • Participation rate 66.8% vs consensus 66.9% and 66.8% in February

    • New Zealand

      • Q1 CPI q/q +0.9% versus consensus +0.8% and +0.5% in prior quarter

    • Singapore

      • March non-oil domestic export y/y +5.4% versus +7.6% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 457.20 or +1.35% to 34377.60

    • Hang Seng: 338.16 or +1.61% to 21395.14

    • Shanghai Composite: 4.34 or +0.13% to 3280.34

    • Shenzhen Composite: 1.49 or +0.08% to 1880.40

    • ASX200: 60.20 or +0.78% to 7819.10

    • KOSPI: 22.98 or +0.94% to 2470.41

    • SENSEX: 1,285.47 or +1.67% to 78329.76

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: +0.97 or +0.69% to 142.8580

    • $-KRW: +1.28 or +0.09% to 1416.4700

    • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.29%) to 0.6353

    • $-INR: (0.18) or (0.21%) to 85.4426

    • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.13%) to 7.2968

The Asia Market Recap will not be published on Good Friday 18 April. It will resume on 21-April.

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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