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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.30%), Shanghai Composite +0.45%, Kospi +0.20% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 21 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia markets ended mixed Monday. Japan's boards retraced all of Friday's gains, and there were some steep losses in Taiwan again. Gains for mainland China stocks, India at four-month highs, Singapore and South Korea's Kospi both higher. US futures lower. US dollar sharply weaker with DXY index hovering near 98; yen strongest in Asia, NZD, AUD and yuan all notably stronger at multi-month highs. Sovereign bond yields lower. Steep falls in crude oil prices, gold surging to another record high and cryptocurrencies spiking on dollar weakness. Base metals rallying led by copper.

    • Asia equities continue to be driven by tariff and trade developments, as well as repercussions from domestic US politics. The dollar and US equity futures were sold off sharply over Monday in response to fresh reports over the weekend President Trump was contemplating removing Fed Chair Powell. The risk-off sentiment hurt Japan's boards the most while Taiwan's Taiex was also lower as its chip stocks sold down again just as its regulator extended short-selling curbs to ensure stock market stability. The weekend's tariff headlines still broadly negative for Asia. Beijing threatened countries that make bilateral trade deals with the US that negatively impact China with retaliatory measures, and after President Trump published a list of non-tariff barriers that he wants addressed in trade negotiations.

    • In regional developments, South Korea trade data for the first 20 days of April showed a sharp contraction in shipments overall, and especially so to the US. Seoul also set to send its industry and finance minister to Washington for talks on trade just as US VP Vance arrived in India with reports both sides have agreed on an outline for a trade deal. Elsewhere, China left its 1Y and 5Y LPRs were unchanged as expected although economists still expect RRR and rate cuts ahead. Data showed FDI into China shrank almost 11% in Q1 to $46.9B following a 27.1% contraction for all of 2024. Indonesia exports unexpectedly rose but they were matched by a steeper rise in imports.

    • Toyota Motor (8035.JP) is considering adding its new RAV4 to a US production line in response to tariffs. China Cosco Shipping (1919.HK) said in a statement the new US fees on China-made ships is "not conducive to fair competition and normal business operation" in the shipping industry. JD.com (9618.HK) said it intends to add 100K full-time riders within the next three months as it looks to catch up with market leader Meituan. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) said it has signed a MoU with POSCO Holdings (005490.KS) for cooperation on its planned US steel plant due to start production in 2029. Keppel Ltd (BN4.SP) said it had secured close to $2B (41.53B) of capital commitments from global institutional investors for its flagship funds.

  • Digest:

    • Tariff sentiment shifts back bearish on Trump's non-tariff barrier list:

      • Tariff headline volatility continued as President Trump on Truth Social listed eight categories that would qualify as non-tariff barriers. Japan markets particularly sensitive to currency manipulation which was at the top of the list. Yen strengthened to a seven-month high amid growing expectations the topic will come up during an expected meeting between Finance Minister Kato and Treasury Secretary Bessent on the sidelines of this week's Washington G20 meeting of finance minister and central bank governors (Nikkei). Protective technical standards was included at #6 and specifically mentioned Japan. Latest Trump rhetoric overshadowed a potential softening in his tariff stance against China out of concerns that escalation will eventually become prohibitive for demand (Reuters). Still unclear as to the level of bilateral dialogue on a trade deal. Reuters sources indicated that high-level exchanges of the kind that would lead to a deal have been largely absent. Bloomberg highlighted that Trump was pressed with questions in the Oval Office and repeatedly sidestepped direct questions about whether he and Xi had been in direct contact. Yet, he expressed confidence about a deal that would include trade concessions and the sale of TikTok's US assets. Trump said a TikTok deal is in the works and pending approval from China and implied the deadline will be stretched out until they reach an agreement.

    • Beijing warns of countermeasures against countries that strike US trade deals at China's expense:

      • According to Xinhua, a China Commerce Ministry spokesperson told a reporter they were aware of reports the Trump administration is seeking to pressure trading partners to restrict trade with China in exchange for US tariff concessions. Predicted that any moves to seek exemptions at the expense of others will ultimately fail. China respects efforts of all countries to resolve their economic and trade difference with the US though equal consultations and advocated for the defense of international trade rules and multilateralism. But firmly opposed any country reaching a deal at China's expense and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner if this were to happen. Added that China is willing to strengthen solidarity and coordination with all parties to resist unilateral bullying. This was the main theme in President Xi's Southeast Asia tour (Xinhua). Nikkei noted Xi oversaw 45 agreements with Vietnam, 31 with Malaysia and 37 with Cambodia. Thinktanks discussed challenges in the region in navigating the growing schism between US and China. While these countries are not seen taking a side for now, they face painful geopolitical choices at some point. Such a crossroad is seen critical for Vietnam, while Malaysia and Cambodia are already a part of China's orbit.

    • Dollar extends drop amid concerns about White House undermining Fed independence:

      • Dollar under pressure Monday with DXY down to lowest since early 2022. Dollar weakness long considered function of waning US exceptionalism, embodied largely by volatile tariff developments. More recently focus has turned to Fed's independence after Trump targeted Chair Powell for refusing to lower interest rates. NEC Director Hassett on Friday said Trump still studying whether he is able to fire Powell before his term as chair ends in May 2026 (Bloomberg). Came day after Trump accused Powell of being too slow to cut interest rates and warning that his termination could not come fast enough. Hassett's remarks contrasted with NY Times article citing sources who said Trump had accepted warnings from his advisers that firing Powell risked another market disruption. Concerns about Fed independence also got attention of Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, who warned against efforts that would undermine central bank's credibility (CBS). White House comments on Powell blamed for Monday's dollar selling according to traders (Bloomberg). Positioning also turning more bearish with hedge funds least bullish on dollar since October, while speculative yen longs at record high (Bloomberg).

    • China LPRs unchanged as expected but easing expectations mounting:

      • LPRs were unchanged as widely expected with 1-year at 3.10% and 5-year at 3.60%. However, easing expectations have been ramping up amid the escalating US-China trade war (Reuters). High bar remains with depressed banking sector NIMs, while signaling effects stand to increase yuan depreciation pressure. Article cited thoughts that deposit rates would need to be lowered first before lending rates. Also recalled latest GDP and activity data were better than expected though captured the period preceding the bulk of tariff announcements as activity was supported by tariff front-loading. Economists project GDP growth momentum to slow notably going forward at a pace well below the government target for about 5% and largely reaffirmed calls for cuts to benchmark rates and RRR in Q2 after policymakers deferred easing in Q1 as they waited for US tariff policies to take shape. BofA FMS saw net 58% of fund managers bearish on the economic outlook, the weakest since the Covid pandemic, despite record-high monetary easing expectations. Onus remains mostly on fiscal policy to provide meaningful support, though there are still doubts that policies in the works will be enough to fully offset tariff impacts.

    • US-China trade fight extending beyond tariffs:

      • While market looking for offramp in US-China tariff war, standoff continues to fan concerns about broader trade decoupling. White House reportedly pressuring nations to curtail trade with China after Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged goal of united approach by allies against Beijing. China has already taken targeted actions against certain products before tariffs went into effect, having halted purchases of US LNG (FT), soybeans and corn for several months (Nikkei). China's restrictions on rare earths exports prompting warnings about significant disruption to automotive supply chains if Beijing chokes off exports given estimated 3-6M of inventories on hand (FT). US companies risk being collateral damage with Reuters noting two Boeing (BA) jets intended for use by Chinese airlines have now returned to US (though unclear which party made that decision). For its part, US has forged ahead with steep port fees on Chinese ships (Bloomberg) and recently tightened export controls on AI chips. There are also concerns about tensions spilling over to geopolitical sphere. Press sources argued China may be pivoting to non-economic trade actions such as leveraging personal data it has collected from years of cyberattacks against US. Also thoughts China may step up coercive actions against US partners in Indo-Pacific.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +4.3% 532648.IN (YES BANK): Q4 results

      • +3.5% 533096.IN (Adani Power): New Delhi to relax nuclear liability laws to attract more US investment (Reuters)

      • +1.1% 500180.IN (HDFC Bank): Q4 results

      • +0.4% 532174.IN (ICICI Bank): Q4 results

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -2.9% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reportedly considering adding its new RAV4 to a US production line in response to tariffs

      • -1.2% 7974.JP (Nintendo): Switch 2 pre-orders to begin 24-Apr in U.S; price remains as announced on 2-Apr (18-Apr, timing uncertain)

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (450.36) or (1.30%) to 34279.92

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: 14.70 or +0.45% to 3291.43

      • Shenzhen Composite: 29.74 or +1.58% to 1910.76

      • ASX200: Closed

      • KOSPI: 5.00 or +0.20% to 2488.42

      • SENSEX: 1,002.02 or +1.28% to 79555.23

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (1.84) or (1.29%) to 140.6000

      • $-KRW: (3.22) or (0.23%) to 1415.1800

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.59% to 0.6429

      • $-INR: (0.37) or (0.43%) to 85.0451

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.18%) to 7.2867

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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