Apr 25 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended higher almost everywhere Friday to cap a largely positive week for the region. Strongest gains for Japan's main boards and Taiwan with solid support for South Korea's Kospi. Greater China boards all higher led by Hong Kong albeit with some tapering into the close. Southeast Asia mostly higher, India lower on political developments. US futures higher, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar higher, yen notably weaker alongside losses in the AUD and NZD. Treasury yields higher at the short end, lower at the long; JGB yields higher. Crude oil futures bouncing back again. Precious metals lower on the dollar bounce, base metals mixed.
Asia markets with a solid rally Friday to end a positive week. Sentiment improved overnight from the broad-based Wall Street rally and more constructive talk on tariffs Friday although this spoiled somewhat late on with Beijing denying for a second time it had began trade talks with the US. Nevertheless, reports from Bloomberg, Caijing and Reuters that Beijing was considering exempting some US goods from 125% tariffs, including semiconductor products, and jet engines and parts cheered traders. China stocks also supported as headlines emerged from the politburo that said the country must 'fully prepare' emergency plans to cushion external shocks.
Trade talks between US and Asia partners continue with South Korea appearing most advanced with an outline agreement potentially in place by July. Today, Thailand and Malaysia became the latest nations to show flexibility on non-tariff measures to secure a trade deal. In other developments, BOJ Governor Ueda maintained rate hikes will continue if underlying inflation tracks towards its 2% target. Tokyo core CPI inflation jumped above 3% in April, its highest in two years. Singapore manufacturing output jumped in March but missed expectations.
Denso (6902.JP) is in talks with Toyota Motor (7203.JP) for sharing costs on some raw materials with suppliers and customers. Nissan Motor (7201.JP) admitted it faces the prospect of more losses after large-scale write-downs and a $5B FY loss, according to analysts. NetEase (9999.HK) confirmed another senior executive had left the company as the company continues its retreat from gaming. TSMC's (2330.TT) CEO met with Intel's CEO to discuss collaboration; company said it would begin production of 14nm chips in 2028 for use in smartphones.
Digest:
China weighs exempting some US goods from 125% tariffs:
Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter who said China is considering exempting some US goods from 125% tariffs, including medical equipment, industrial chemicals and plane leases. Chinese companies in vulnerable sectors were asked submit list of goods they need tariff exemptions for with article pointing out China's reliance on US goods such as ethane and advanced medical equipment. Separately, Caijing sources noted China has quietly exempted some US semiconductors from 125% tariffs and will instead subject them to 13% value-added tax. However, exemption list does not apply to memory chips. Markets have been looking for signs of an off-ramp with both sides having struck defiant tone and US refusing to unilaterally reduce tariffs. There also was some confusion surrounding state of talks after President Trump maintained both sides in communication despite Beijing dismissing notion that negotiations are ongoing (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT). Press have highlighted other potential complications including fentanyl, charges of FX manipulation, Beijing's unwillingness to engage in leader-level talks, and Xi's preparedness to fight amid calculation Trump will cave under market and political pressure.
China Politburo pledges to fully prepare emergency plans amid trade war:
Xinhua published April Politburo meeting readout that vowed to fully prepare emergency plans to guard against growing external shocks. Meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping emphasized need to accelerate implementation of more proactive and effective macro-policies. Pledged to make full and effective use of more aggressive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. Reaffirmed cuts to RRR and interest rates at appropriate time to maintain ample liquidity and step up support for real economy. Vowed to set up new monetary policy tools and policy financing instruments to boost technology, consumption and trade. On fiscal policy, authorities will speed up issuance and utilization of LGSB and ultra-long special treasury bonds. There was a clear focus on supporting companies affected by US tariffs and continued emphasis on improving consumption, boosting incomes of middle- and low-income earners. Bloomberg citing economists noted authorities adopt wait-and-see approach before adding new incremental policies as Beijing usually unveils support only when it's required to achieve annual growth target.
US trade talks with Asian officials yield progress:
Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Japan Finance Minister Kato in Washington on Thursday. As expected, two sides did not make reference to currency targets, instead agreeing that FX moves be determined by market and that currency volatility is harmful to economy (Japan Today). Japan Minister of economic revitalization, Ryosei Akazawa, will travel to US next week for next round of trade talks with sources saying he will press for elimination of auto tariffs. Nikkei sources also noted Japan weighing boosting purchases of soybeans as part of deal. Signs of progress in US-South Korea talks after Bessent foreshadowed an agreement of understanding next week (Bloomberg). Two sides aiming to complete trade package by 8-Jul with talks focused on tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FX and investment cooperation (Reuters). Korea raised issue of auto tariffs during Thursday talks along with offers on shipbuilding cooperation and participation in energy projects. Vietnam also kicked off talks with US, which were described as productive by USTR Greer (Reuters). US-India talks seem to have made the most progress this week with Bessent noting two sides very close to breakthrough on negotiations paving way for trade pact.
BOJ Governor Ueda repeats stance on rate hikes as Tokyo core inflation accelerates:
Speaking at G20 news conference on Thursday, BOJ Governor Ueda repeated rate hikes will continue if underlying inflation is tracking towards 2% target (Reuters). Noted global policymakers shared view tariffs impacting trade activity, weighing on business sentiment and fueling market volatility. Added he will consider discussions with his counterparts in formulating BOJ's assessment of Japan's economy at next week's meeting. Repeated that central bank will scrutinize without pre-conception whether its outlook will materialize, taking into account various data and particularly those sensitive to tariffs. While tariff developments have prompted economists to dial back BOJ rate hike expectations (Bloomberg), press sources say tariffs not enough to derail BOJ's current outlook on wages and inflation when it meets next week (Reuters). Rate hike stance also supported by latest Tokyo CPI data, which showed core inflation accelerated to two-year high of 3.4% in April from 2.4% in March and higher than consensus 3.2%. Headline inflation rose to 3.5% from 2.9%, above consensus 3.3%, reflecting fading out of energy subsidies and surge in food costs. Ex-energy and food-inflation also rose to 3.1% from 2.2%, and topped forecasts for 2.8%.
US-China trade war upending business and investment:
US-China trade war upending business and investment ties between the two countries. FT sources noted Apple (AAPL) planning to shift all production of US iPhones from China to India as early as next year. iPhone production predominantly in China though Apple has progressively moved operations to India. Apple's move also comes after Trump exempted smartphones from 125% China reciprocal tariff and 10% baseline tariff. Other US companies have been caught up in the crossfire with Reuters sources noting Air India in talks to acquire Boeing (BA) jets recently turned away by China. Media sources also noted Ford (F) halted shipments of F-150 Raptors, Mustangs, Broncos, Lincoln Navigators after China's retaliatory measures drove tariffs on these vehicles to as high as 150% (link). US retail executives (Axios), aerospace and defense manufacturers (FT) among industries voicing concerns about supply chain disruptions. Press also highlighted commodity disruptions with China having halted US LNG imports (FT) and cut back on soybean and pork purchases (link), while China-bound petroleum gas cargoes being diverted to other countries (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+12.5% 6594.JP (Nidec): reports Q4 results with operating profit ahead of StreetAccount estimates; provides mid-term plan
+10.4% H78.SP (Hongkong Land Holdings): to sell 147K sq ft of One Exchange Square to HKEX for HK$6.3B ($810M) and commence share buyback program of up to $200M
+4.9% 540719.IN (SBI Life Insurance): reports Q4 with profit after tax INR8.14B vs year-ago INR8.11
+4.8% 6702.JP (Fujitsu): reports FY results with revenue ahead of FactSet estimates; to launch up to 120.0M-share buyback for up to ¥170B
+1.6% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): guides FY net income attributable (¥750.00-700.00B) vs prior guidance (¥80.00B) and FactSet (¥97.77B)
Notable Decliners:
-4.3% 175330.KS (JB Financial Group): reports Q1 results with operating profit KRW217.47B vs FactSet KRW300.67B
-4.0% 532215.IN (Axis Bank): reports Q4 standalone results with net interest income below StreetAccount estimates
-3.8% 035720.KS (Kakao): SK Telecom to sell 10.8M Kakao shares for KRW395.20B today via block deal
-3.0% 3231.JP (Nomura Real Estate Holdings): reports FY results with revenue below FactSet estimates and guidance
Data:
Economic:
Japan April
Tokyo core CPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and +2.4% in prior month
CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.1% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and +2.2% in prior month
Overall CPI +3.5% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and +2.9% in prior month
Singapore March
Manufacturing production y/y +5.8% versus +0.9% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 666.59 or +1.90% to 35705.74
Hang Seng: 70.98 or +0.32% to 21980.74
Shanghai Composite: (2.23) or (0.07%) to 3295.06
Shenzhen Composite: 5.99 or +0.31% to 1915.65
ASX200: Closed
KOSPI: 23.97 or +0.95% to 2546.30
SENSEX: (543.63) or (0.68%) to 79257.80
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.79 or +0.55% to 143.4140
$-KRW: +3.39 or +0.24% to 1434.4300
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.19%) to 0.6390
$-INR: +0.23 or +0.27% to 85.4567
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.04%) to 7.2856
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