May 04 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for positive start to Monday trade. Several markets closed for public holidays, including Japan and China. Nikkei and Hang Seng futures traded higher on Friday. ASX tracking for opening gains. S&P 500 futures pulling lower after noticing another weekly gain. Australian and New Zealand bonds under pressure with curve flattening, mirroring Treasuries on Friday. Dollar index steady after hitting early April high. Crude selling off after OPEC+ agreed to another outsized production hike. Gold little changed. Bitcoin pulling back from Feb-2025 highs.
On US-China trade front, President Trump told NBC he is going to lower China tariffs "at some point" to keep trade flowing. Follows de-escalation signal from China on Friday when it agreed to evaluate US offer to negotiate. Media sources also noted Beijing weighing fresh offer to address US concerns over fentanyl. Elsewhere, US and Japan to begin working-level negotiations following talks last week though Japan also noted tariffs remain sticking point. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Kato downplayed notion of selling Treasuries as bargaining chip.
Elections a weekend focus with Australia's Labor government winning second term in a landslide after campaigning on an expansionary fiscal policy of tax cuts, energy bill rebates and student debt forgiveness. Singapore's ruling PAP also won landslide election victory, increasing its seat share and strengthening PM Wong's mandate after promising cost-of-living support via cash handouts, vouchers and utilities rebates. Trump turbulence and global economic uncertainty common factor in both elections, mirroring trends elsewhere (Canada).
Fed the main event this week with central bank expected to hold and reemphasize tariff-related uncertainties. Elsewhere, BOE expected to cut by 25 bp. Markets will get latest April reads on China with CPI and PPI, trade data and Caixin services PMI due out. Japan household spending and wages and New Zealand Q1 employment among other releases. Earnings roll through with US, Japan and Korean companies reporting. Markets attentive to tariff developments following US-China de-escalation signals while Canada PM Carney to meet Trump
Pre-open Company News:
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $144.7M, +95.9% y/y - Box Office Mojo
6201.JP -- Toyota Industries downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS
500247.IN -- Kotak Mahindra Bank downgraded to neutral from buy at Nomura
4715.MK -- Genting Malaysia downgraded to reduce from buy at Nomura
7259.JP -- Aisin Corp. downgraded to neutral from buy at Nomura
532488.IN -- Divi's Laboratories initiated overweight at Morgan Stanley
030000.KS -- Cheil Worldwide initiated outperform at Macquarie
2778.HK -- Champion Real Estate Investment Trust downgraded to reduce from hold at HSBC
543243.IN -- Equitas Small Finance Bank downgraded to hold from buy at HSBC
On Deck:
Australia:
Earnings:
Apiam Animal Health (AHX.AU), Chrysos (C79.AU), Endeavour Group (EDV.AU)
India:
Earnings:
Mahindra & Mahindra (500520.IN), Jammu & Kashmir Bank (532209.IN), Coforge (532541.IN), Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (543261.IN), CCL Products (India) (519600.IN), DCM Shriram (523367.IN), Capri Global Capital (531595.IN), Computer Age Management Services (543232.IN)
Indonesia:
Economic:
11:00 SAST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +4.9%
Philippines:
Earnings:
Wilcon Depot (WLCON.PM), Robinsons Land (RLC.PM)
Market Data:
Gold (Jun 25): +$7.50 or +0.23% to $3250.80
WTI Crude (Jun 25): ($1.95) or (3.35%) to $56.34
$-¥: (0.30) or (0.21%) to 144.6730
$-KRW: (1.16) or (0.08%) to 1398.7300
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.09% to 0.6450
$-INR: +0.16 or +0.19% to 84.6681
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2706
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