May 07 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a mixed open amidst mostly higher Asian equities Wednesday. China market strength followed PBOC rate cut announcement and US-China trade talk progress though stocks off best levels. Japan and Taiwan little changed while Australia and Korea eking out small gain. US contracts firming afterhours.
In central banks, SNB's Tschudin panellist at 11:00CET at Point Zero Forum. Bundesbank's Lienenkämper panellist at 17:00CET at event hosted at Europe Week at the Europavillon. Poland central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate (50bps) to decision 5.25%. Czech central bank monetary policy meeting, release of economic new forecasts. Expected to leave benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%.
In politics, Chancellor Merz reportedly seen visiting Paris (Merz and France's President Macron can restart Europe's Franco-German engine - Chatham House). Norway's PM Støre attends the LO Congress. Informal meeting of EU foreign ministers (through Thu). BaFin annual press conf. EP to debate the Spanish and Portuguese blackouts. In the afternoon, the Commission and Council will deliver statements and MEPs will debate the topic. In UK, weekly PMQs gets underway at 12noon BST, whilst parliamentary committee topics include rail investment pipelines (9:15), nitrogen (10:00), UK's future relationship with the US (11:30), environmental sustainability and housing growth (14:30, execs from Berkeley Group (BKG.LN), Crest Nicholson (CRST.LN)), AI in financial services (14:15) and tidal power and the Severn (15:00).
On the macro front, Germany Mar factory orders, manufacturing turnover and Apr construction PMI, France Mar trade balance, Eurozone and Italy Mar retail sales, Portugal Q1 unemployment rate, Sweden Apr preliminary CPI, UK Apr construction PMI are due to be released.
A busy morning for earnings kicked off with Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR) reporting Q1 EPS €3.38 vs consensus €3.01 and confirming FY guidance and Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) releasing Q1 results with EPS DKK6.53 vs consensus DKK6.23 and cutting its FY25 outlook to reflects lower-than-planned penetration of branded GLP-1 treatments in the US. Also out with results are Ahold Delhaize (AD.NA) as well as from the DACHs region, Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR), Vonovia (VNA.GR) and Fresenius (FRE.GR). From the Nordics, Pandora (PNDORA.DC), Sampo (SAMPO.FH), Jyske Bank (JYSK.DC), Ambu (AMBU.B.DC), DNB Bank (DNB.NO), Storebrand (STB.NO), Skanska (SKA.B.SS) and Loomis (LOOMIS.SS) are out with reports. In France, Legrand (LR.FP) and Veolia Environnement (VIE.FP).
Politics/Macro/World News
UK closes in on US trade agreement with lower tariff quotas for cars and steel -- FT
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux:
AD.NA (Ahold Delhaize) -- reports Q1 underlying EPS €0.62 vs consensus €0.60; reiterates FY25 outlook
VLK.NA (Van Lanschot Kempen) -- AuM inflows of €4.4B, of which Private Clients Netherlands: €1.2B, Private Clients Belgium: €0.6B, and Investment Management Clients: €2.5B
ARCAD.NA (ARCADIS) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €133M vs FactSet €121.5M [2 est, €118-125M]; on track to achieve strategic targets set for 2024-2026
DACHs:
BMW.GR Bayerische Motoren Werke reports Q1 EPS €3.38 vs consensus €3.01
FRE.GR (Fresenius) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.74 ex-items vs consensus €0.67
SHL.GR (Siemens Healthineers) -- reports Q2 adj EPS €0.56 vs consensus €0.56; now assumes expanded range for FY adj EPS of €2.20 -2.50 vs previous €2.35-2.50
KCO.GR (Kloeckner & Co.) -- reports Q1 EBITDA €42M before material special effects vs FactSet €43.0M [1 est]
AG1.AV Auto1 Group reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €58.1M vs year-ago €17.0M; raises FY gross profit and adj. EBITDA guidance
JUN3.GR Jungheinrich introduces Strategy 2030+; targets revenues of €10B and EBIT ROS of 10% on organic basis by 2030
VNA.GR (Vonovia) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €698.5M vs FactSet €663.2M [2 est, €658.8-667.6M]
ARYN.SW (Aryzta) -- Capital Markets Day: Having achieved mid-term targets a year ahead of schedule, Aryzta announces new ones
France:
CS.FP (AXA) -- reports Q1 revenue €36.97B vs consensus €36.29B
VIE.FP Veolia Environnement reports Q1 EBITDA €1.70B vs consensus €1.69B; FY25 guidance fully confirmed
LR.FP Legrand reports Q1 net income €293.3M vs StreetAccount €301.5M
AKE.FP Arkema reports Q1 EPS €1.31 ex-items vs consensus €1.55
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- reports Q1 revenue €858.0M vs StreetAccount €842.3M
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- reports Q1 net income (€9.2M) vs FactSet (€24.9M) [3 est, (€31.4)-(16.3M)]
LNA.FP (LNA Santé) -- reports Q1 revenue €209.7M, +11% vs year-ago €189.3M
SCR.FP SCOR SE reports Q1 net income €200M vs consensus €148M; overall profitability of SCOR's business mix should remain very attractive
Nordics:
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK6.53 vs consensus DKK6.23; cuts FY25 outlook to reflects lower-than-planned penetration of branded GLP-1 treatments in the US
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK14.00 vs consensus DKK12.90; maintains guidance for 2025 of 7-8% organic growth; adjusts EBIT margin guidance for 2025 to "around 24%" vs previous "around 24.5%"
AMBU.B.DC (Ambu) -- reports Q2 EPS DKK0.71 vs FactSet DKK0.74 [4 est, DKK0.70-0.80]; reaffirms FY guidance
INTRUM.SS Intrum reports Q1 adjusted EBIT SEK1.10B vs consensus SEK1.01B
DNB.NO DNB Bank reports Q1 net income NOK10.85B vs consensus NOK9.89B
JYSK.DC Jyske Bank reports Q1 EPS DKK19.4 vs FactSet DKK16.98 [5 est, DKK16.50-17.17]; reaffirms FY guidance
TOBII.SS Tobii reports Q1 EPS SEK0.12 vs FactSet (SEK0.15) [2 est, (SEK0.17)-(0.13)]
CLA.B.SS Cloetta reports Q1 EPS SEK0.89 vs FactSet SEK0.38 [1 est]
STB.NO Storebrand reports Q1 cash EPS NOK2.42 vs FactSet NOK2.22 [10 est, NOK1.90-2.50]
SCHA.NO (Schibsted) -- reports Q1 EBITDA NOK394M vs consensus NOK347.7M; near-term financial performance is influenced by market conditions
SAMPO.FH Sampo reports Q1 operating EPS €0.11 vs consensus €0.12; adjusts FY25 financial outlook; increases estimated synergies from integration of Topdanmark significantly
SKA.B.SS Skanska reports Q1 EPS SEK2.40 vs FactSet SEK2.62 [5 est, SEK2.24-2.92]
HOFI.SS Hoist Finance reports Q1 EPS SEK2.33 vs FactSet SEK2.32 [3 est, SEK1.84-2.64]
IRLAB.A.SS IRLAB Therapeutics reports Q1 EPS (SEK0.65) vs year-ago (SEK0.75)
AKRBP.NO (Aker BP) -- reports Q1 EPS $0.50 vs FactSet $0.79 [10 est, $0.69-0.95]
ICEAIR.IR (Icelandair Group) -- reports April traffic +24.0% y/y
G5EN.SS (G5 Entertainment) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK1.53 vs FactSet SEK3.24 [2 est, SEK3.18-3.30]
RESURS.SS (Resurs Holding) -- reports Q1 EPS (SEK0.67) vs year-ago SEK0.05
SOFF.NO (Solstad Offshore) -- reports Q1 net income $24M vs year-ago $38M
AKTIA.FH (Aktia Bank) -- reports Q1 comparable EPS €0.32 vs FactSet €0.34 [2 est, €0.33-0.34]
PEXIP.NO (Pexip Holding) -- reports Q1 revenue NOK348M vs FactSet NOK330.2M [5 est, NOK312-338M]; initiates up to NOK100M buyback
SMCRT.NO (SmartCraft) -- reports Q1 net income NOK22.1M vs FactSet NOK27.9M [4 est, NOK26-29.3M]
LOOMIS.SS Loomis reports Q1 EPS SEK5.57 vs FactSet SEK7.09 [3 est, SEK6.80-7.29]
Southern Europe:
FBK.IM FinecoBank reports Q1 net income €164.2M vs FactSet €160.4M [8 est, €156-165.1M]
LTMC.IM (Lottomatica Group) -- reports Q1 adjusted net income €94.7M vs FactSet €89.5M; announces €500M buyback program to start in June G.IM Generali issues Q1 pre-close commentary
ENEL.IM (Enel) -- reports Q1 operational data: total installed capacity 90,725 MW vs year-ago 89,163 MW (post EU close 6-May)
DIA.IM (DiaSorin) -- reports Q1 adjusted net income €64M vs FactSet €61.4M
NOS.PL (NOS SGPS) -- reports Q1 net income €55.2M ex-items vs FactSet €37.8M [1 est]
M&A
VIE.FP (Veolia) -- acquires CDPQ's 30% stake in Veolia's subsidiary Water Technologies and Solutions for $1.75B (~€1.5B)
EMGS.NO (Electromagnetic Geoservices) -- announces newly formed subsidiary will acquire the OSCV Siem Day Vessel from Siem Day II AS
ARYN.SW (Aryzta) -- Capital Markets Day: Having achieved mid-term targets a year ahead of schedule, Aryzta announces new ones
CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding) -- SoftwareOne Holding AG holds over 90% of Crayon's share capital by end of offer period today as per preliminary results
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- does not consider potential US tariffs on pharma sector to be sensible; notes China is presenting itself as business friendly - FT, citing CEO
068270.KS (Celltrion) -- presents results from phase 3 post-analysis of Zymfentra at DDW 2025
Other
SDF.GR (K+S AG) -- Rossmann Beteiligungs GmbH now holds 5.07% of voting shares in K+S AG vs prior 3.99% as of 5-May - filing
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- formalizes the establishment of its new Aeronautics Division (post EU close 6-May)
VNA.GR (Vonovia) -- announces CEO Rolf Buch to step down at the end of the year; to be succeeded by Luka Mucic
HEM.SS (Hemnet Group) -- board authorizes share buyback program for up to SEK600M
LOOMIS.SS (Loomis) -- resolves to repurchase shares up to SEK 200M
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- awarded 4D streamer contract in the East Mediterranean
VU.FP (VusionGroup) -- NielsenIQ, VusionGroup announce strategic collaboration
PRS.SM (Promotora de Informaciones) -- announces novation agreement of financing agreements
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- to neutral from underperform at Oddo
SF.SS (Stillfront Group) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
Downgrades
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- to sell from hold at Deutsche Numis
CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
ISP.IM (Intesa Sanpaolo) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
FNTN.GR (Freenet) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
Initiations
TRI.FP (Trigano) -- buy at UBS
Data
Nikkei +0.11% to 36870.07
Hang Seng +0.71% to 22823.02
Shanghai Composite +0.52% to 3333.23
S&P futures +27.0 vs prior close of 5625.8
€-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.1369
$-¥ +0.61 or +0.43% to 143.03
€-¥ +0.68 or +0.42% to 162.60
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