May 13 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed. Asian equities mostly higher Tuesday. Japan and Taiwan outperforming with mainland China and Australia extending Monday's gains. Hang Seng weighed down by losses in tech/semi space while Korea erased initial advance.
Markets processing Monday's de-escalation of US-China trade tensions that saw both sides announce significant tariff reductions. Tariff relief much more aggressive than expected going into weekend talks in Geneva. However, takeaways noted several questions left unanswered, including how/whether China agreed to reduce business barriers or if Beijing will undertake more purchase commitments. Fits with view of protracted negotiations that leave trade deal a long way off, leaving open risk of tariff reintroduction after 90 days.
In central banks, Latvia central bank's Kazāks participates at ~9:00CET in meeting of parliamentary committee, the same time as Bank of Spain's Escrivá speaks at Conf. on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility (livestream). Bank of Ireland's Makhlouf speech at 9:00BST at International Economic Symposium (Mon-Tue). BOE's Benford speech at 12noon BST at Gartner Data and Analytics Conf (Mon-Wed). Bundesbank's Balz panellist at 16:00CET at CDU Economic Council event. BOE's Bailey and Netherlands central bank's Knot panellists at 17:00CET. Norges Bank's Bache and Norges Bank Investment Management Tangen at parliamentary committee hearing on the country's sovereign wealth fund. Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conf on Frontiers of Monetary Economics in the 21st century: Where and Where to? (through Wed).
Elsewhere, ECOFIN meeting (ECB's de Guindos among the participants) and EBRD 2025 Annual Meeting and Business Forum, attendees include UK's Chancellor Reeves. In the UK there's an Opposition Day debate (subject tba), whilst parliamentary committee topics include reforming the water sector (10:00BST, Thames Water execs), UK contribution to European security (10:30), industrial strategy (14:30) and workforce planning to deliver clean, secure energy (15:30). Amongst events are Politico's AI & Tech Summit (through Wed) and FT hosting Annual Cross-Border Distribution Conf and Future of the Car (through Thu). There's the Copenhagen Democracy Summit (through Wed), EU's McGrath among the speakers.
European macro data releases out today include Germany May ZEW survey, UK Mar unemployment rate, Apr claimant count change, retail sales monitor - BRC, Netherlands Apr final CPI, Portugal Apr final CPI
In earnings news, DACHs names kicked off the session with Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR), Fraport (FRA.GR), Bayer AG (BAYN.GR), Hannover Re (HNR1.GR) and Duerr (DUE.GR) issuing their latest updates. In Spain, yesterday, after the market closed, heavyweight Grifols (GRF.SM) reported Q1 earnings and confirmed its guidance for 2025. In Nordics, Sveafastigheter (SVEAF.SS), NTG Nordic Transport Group (NTG.DC) and Yubico (YUBICO.SS) are amongst others in the region to update investors with their latest numbers. Also due report earnings today includes Ferrovial (FER.SM), DCC (DCC.LN), Bytes Technology Group (BYIT.LN), whilst BAE Systems (BA.LN), and Kuros Biosciences (KURN.SW) CMD update are due.
Politics/Macro/World News
EU readies capital controls and tariffs to safeguard Russia sanctions - FT
UK Pension Funds Agree to Invest 5% at Home in New Reeves Deal - Bloomberg
Slovakia, Hungary Seen Among Worst Hit by Tariffs, EBRD Says - Bloomberg
IW expects more than three million unemployed in the summer - Handelsblatt
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Southern Europe
GRF.SM (Grifols) -- reports Q1 net income €60M vs FactSet €48.0M [6 est, €35-83.5M]
NHH.SM (Minor Hotels Europe & Americas) -- reports Q1 net income (€22M) vs year-ago (€30.4M)
France
ALCLS.FP (Cellectis SA) -- reports Q1 EPS ($0.17) ex-items vs FactSet ($0.15) [5 est, ($0.29)-0.00]
IPH.FP (Innate Pharma) -- reports Q1 revenue €1.6M vs year-ago €6.6M
GNRO.FP (GeNeuro) -- announces postponement of 2024 annual results
POXEL.FP (Poxel) -- reports Q1 revenue €1.07B, +137% vs year-ago €449M; updates on existing event of default
Germany
AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec) -- reports H1 adj EPS €0.81 vs year-ago €0.92; not yet possible to issue a more precise forecast at this time due to trade tariffs
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- acquires Radisson Blu Building
BIO3.GR (Biotest) -- reports Q1 earnings after taxes (€21.4M) vs year-ago €29.5M
PSPN.SW (PSP Swiss Property) -- reports Q1 EPS CHF1.09 vs year-ago CHF1.23
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports Q1 EPS (€0.18) vs FactSet (€0.17) [3 est, (€0.25)-(0.10)]
LEG.GR (LEG Immobilien) -- reports Q1 FFO €0.84 vs FactSet €1.32
DUE.GR (Duerr) -- reports Q1 net income €24.9M vs consensus €26.3M; confirms outlook despite uncertainties arising from tariff conflicts
KWS.GR (KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA) -- reports 9M EPS from continuing operations €6.15 vs year-ago €6.93
SPG.GR (Springer Nature) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBIT €107.9M vs FactSet €105.0M [2 est, €104.9-105.2M]; guides FY25 adj. operating profit in range of €523M to €546M vs FactSet €532.79M
CWC.GR (CEWE Stiftung & Co) -- reports Q1 EBIT €6.1M vs FactSet €6.5M [1 est]; outlook confirmed
SDF.GR (K+S AG0 -- confirms preliminary Q1 revenue €965M vs FactSet €973.2M [7 est, €943.7-1.00B]
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- reports Q1 Core EPS cont. ops. €2.49 vs consensus €2.16; Group outlook at constant FX confirmed
JEN.GR (Jenoptik) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.16 vs FactSet €0.22 [3 est, €0.19-0.25]; 2025 guidance confirmed
HNR1.GR (Hannover Re) -- reports Q1 EPS €3.98 vs FactSet €4.65 [5 est, €4.14-5.20]; confirms Fy25 guidance
YSN.GR (secunet Security Networks) -- reports Q1 results in line with 17-Apr prelims; confirms forecast for 2025
EUZ.GR (Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik) -- reports Q1 net income €9.7M vs year-ago €8.5M; FY guidance confirmed
AAG.GR (Aumann( -- reports Q1 EBITDA margin 10.9% vs year-ago 10.5% and guidance of 8% to 10%
Benelux
ALFEN.NA (Alfen) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €5.5M vs FactSet €5.5M [2 est, €5-6M]
BSGR.NA (B&S Group) -- reports preliminary Q1 revenue €557.8M vs year-ago €529.7M
TWEKA.NA (TKH Group) -- reports Q1 EBITA €40.0M vs FactSet €35.7M; reiterates its outlook
KENDR.NA (Kendrion) -- reports Q1 normalized net income from cont. ops. €3.7M vs year-ago €3.6M
Nordics
YUBICO.SS (Yubico) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK0.58 vs year-ago SEK0.84
NTG.DC (NTG Nordic Transport Group) -- reports Q1 net income DKK61.0M vs FactSet DKK74.8M [4 est, DKK54-83M]
MULTI.NO (Multiconsult) -- reports Q1 EPS NOK4.86 vs FactSet NOK5.76 [3 est, NOK5.12-6.74]
CLOUD.NO (Cloudberry) -- Clean Energy reports Q1 EPS (NOK0.06) vs FactSet NOK0.14 [3 est, (NOK0.06)-0.43]
CANTA.SS (Cantargia) -- reports Q1 net loss (SEK46.9M) vs year-ago (SEK37.0M)
STAR.B.SS (Starbreeze) -- reports Q1 EPS (SEK0.02) vs FactSet SEK0.00 [1 est]
CS.SS (Coinshares International) -- reports Q1 net income $23.8M vs FactSet $27.1M [2 est, $18.1-23M]
ELMRA.NO (Elmera Group) -- reports Q1 EPS NOK0.50 vs FactSet NOK1.05 [4 est, NOK0.90-1.13]; net revenue growth and adj EBIT likely below targets for 2025
SEYE.SS (Smart Eye) -- reports Q1 EPS (SEK1.47) vs year-ago (SEK1.53)
CAPSL.NO (Capsol Technologies) -- reports Q1 revenue NOK25M vs FactSet NOK22.3M [3 est, NOK20-24M]
RAIVV.FH (Raisio) -- reports Q1 comparable EPS €0.03 vs FactSet €0.03 [4 est, €0.03-0.03]; keeps its FY25 outlook unchanged
NLFSK.DC (Nilfisk Holding) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.08 vs FactSet €0.10 [2 est, €0.00-0.20]; confirms FY guidance
NORDH.NO (Nordhealth) -- reports Q1 net loss (NOK2.8M) vs year-ago (NOK2.5M); reiterates FY25 guidance
SVEAF.SS (Sveafastigheter) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK0.19 vs FactSet SEK0.36 [2 est, SEK0.35-0.36]
SITOWS.FH (Sitowise Group) -- reports Q1 EPS (€0.04) vs FactSet €0.01 [3 est, (€0.02)-0.02]
Also due to report today includes
Earnings:
Benelux: Nyxoah (NYXH.BB)
Denmark: Copenhagen Airports (KBHL.DC), GrønlandsBANKEN (GRLA.DC),
Finland: Citycon (CTY1S.FH), Relais Group (RELAIS.FH), Kamux (KAMUX.FH),
Germany: Munich Re (MUV2.GR), EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg (EBK.GR), Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI.GR), Sixt (SIX2.GR), Yubico (0FE.GR), CANCOM (COK.GR), MBB (MBB.GR), Patrizia (PAT.GR), Verbio (VBK.GR), Medios (ILM1.GR), Deutsche Rohstoff (DR0.GR), Moberg Pharma (MB8.GR)
Italy: Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW.IM), A2A (A2A.IM), De'Longhi (DLG.IM), Technoprobe (TPRO.IM), Carel Industries (CRL.IM), Italmobiliare (ITM.IM), LU-VE (LUVE.IM), FILA - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini (FILA.IM), WIIT (WIIT.IM), Fiera Milano (FM.IM), Industrie De Nora (DNR.IM), Esprinet (PRT.IM), Italian Exhibition Group (IEG.IM), Sabaf (SAB.IM)
Norway: Cambi (CAMBI.NO), Salmon Evolution (SALME.NO),
Spain: Ferrovial (FER.SM), ACS (ACS.SM), Ercros (ECR.SM)
Sweden: Norva24 Group (NORVA.SS), Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (SBB.B.SS), Concejo (CNCJO.B.SS), Catena Media (CTM.SS)
UK: DCC (DCC.LN), Bytes Technology Group (BYIT.LN), Renew Holdings (RNWH.LN), On The Beach Group (OTB.LN), Marston's (MARS.LN), Treatt (TET.LN), Diaceutics (DXRX.LN), IQE (IQE.LN)
Other: Gedeon Richter (RICHT.HB)
Trading Update:
Benelux: B&S Group (BSGR.NA)
France: Eiffage (FGR.FP),Claranova (CLA.FP), Abéo (ABEO.FP), ICAPE Holding (ALICA.FP)
Southern Europe: Buzzi (BZU.IM), Geox (GEO.IM)
UK: Restore (RST.LN)
CMD/events: BAE Systems (BA.LN), Kuros Biosciences (KURN.SW), XPS Pensions Group (XPS.LN), Piraeus Port Authority (PPA.GA)
M&A
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- also reportedly considering sale of robotics business as alternative to spinoff -- Bloomberg
UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco) -- denies media report it has held informal talks with Banco Sabadell over merger - Reuters
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- acquires Radisson Blu Building
MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- acquires Sitia's robotics activity; terms undisclosed
PEUG.FP (Peugeot Invest) -- invests $125M in BroadStreet Partners a leading insurance broker in North America
AX1.AU (Accent Group) -- completes previously announced strategic transaction with Frasers Group
St Vincent's Health considering bid for Healthscope - Australian Financial Review
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche presents statistically significant final OS results from phase III APHINITY study
HLUN.B.DC (H. Lundbeck) -- FDA grants orphan drug designation to H. Lundbeck for drug to treat congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH)
Other
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- appoints Matt Ellis as CFO
Trump action on drug prices less aggressive than feared; GS ups Lucid stake in intraday thematic update (12-May)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ENT.LN (Entain) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
MIPS.SS (MIPS) -- to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
Downgrades
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
Initiations
RBT.FP (Robertet) -- buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +1.81% to 38325.52
Hang Seng (1.51%) to 23193.76
Shanghai Composite +0.22% to 3376.64
S&P futures (18.3) vs prior close of 5865.0
€-$ +0.0029 or +0.26% to 1.1117
$-¥ (0.74) or (0.50%) to 147.73
€-¥ (0.39) or (0.24%) to 164.20
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