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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.98%), Hang Seng (0.79%), Shanghai Composite (0.68%) as of 04:10 ET

May 15 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly lower Thursday. Japan, Greater China and several Southeast Asia boards all posted sharp declines. India, South Korea and Taiwan ended with modest losses. Small gains for Australia and Singapore. US futures lower, Europe opened down. US dollar weaker, yen strengthening, AUD higher for a time after jobs report but settled back to end lower. Treasury and JGB yields a touch higher. Crude blends sharply lower on positive Iran nuclear sentiment. Precious metals also lower as safe haven demand wanes, base metals mixed.

    • Asia equities retreated in a quiet day's trading amid an absence of fresh catalysts, a mixed session on Wall Street overnight, and US futures that are currently trading lower. A Treasuries rally also weighed a little on equity sentiment with two- and ten-year yields back to levels last seen in February, and as Fed Fund Futures price in just two more cuts this year for the first time also since February. Asia currencies mixed with volatility sparked by reports late Wednesday South Korea and US officials had discussed forex policies in trade talks, later denied by Washington that said it was not seeking currency pledges.

    • In macro news, Australian April employment data came above expectations but the unemployment rate was unchanged. Follows rebound in Q1 wage growth, adding to evidence of a still-tight labor market. China credit data showed larger-than-forecast drop in new loans and record low growth in outstanding loan growth, adding to poor inflation data released Wednesday.

    • Rakuten (4755.JP) posted much weaker-than-expected Q1 earnings, its 19th consecutive quarterly loss; stock sharply lower. Sun Hung Kai Properties (86.HK) sold out the first batch of homes for a new project as Hong Kong interest rates hover at almost three-year lows. State-owned India Railway Finance Corp (543257.IN) has received government approval to raise up to $1.17B in deep-discount bonds that do not pay regular interest.

  • Digest:

    • China eases non-tariff actions against US as focus turns to talks with other Asian nations:

      • In latest trade developments, China wound back punitive actions against US after this week agreeing to reduce tariffs to 10%. China agreed to suspend unreliable entities list announced in April targeting US companies (Xinhua). China also suspended curbs on exports of rare earths and other goods (Bloomberg). There was some attention Wednesday to reports that US-Asia trade deal discussions involved exchange rate policies with aim of weakening dollar (Bloomberg). However, later Bloomberg article cited sources who said US officials not looking to insert currency pledges in trade agreements. Fox sources on Wednesday claimed South Korea and Japan reportedly close to trade deal with US, though separate reports have discussed potential for negotiations to drag on (Nikkei). Countries such as India also said to be leaning towards tougher stance in talks (Bloomberg). USTR Greer in Asia for APEC meeting, where he is expected hold talks with Asian trade ministers (Bloomberg). Greer earlier said US willing to move quickly on trade talks with parties wanting to be ambitious though he also lent support to notion of 10% baseline tariff as floor and maintained US not budging on sectoral tariffs.

    • BofA Asia FMS shows pessimism receding ahead of US-China trade talks:

      • BofA Asia FMS indicated broad-based easing in investor pessimism toward the region. Report emphasized the survey was completed on 8-May before the US-China trade talks in Geneva. On regional economic outlook, net pessimism fell to 77% from 89%. Net proportion foreseeing earnings slowdown dropped to 58% from 78%. Yet, China sentiment improved to a lesser extent with net 48% anticipating weaker economy vs 59% last month. Proportion seeking rotation out of China fell to 16% from 26%. Key development was the emergence of India as the most favored market, overtaking Japan which had a big lead over other markets. India perceived as likely beneficiary of supply chain re-alignments in the wake of tariffs. China rebounded to third place from last. Asia ex-Japan sector preferences saw overweight telecom and software, while avoiding energy, materials and consumer discretionary ex-retail/e-commerce. Pessimism toward the semiconductor cycle moderated to net 42% from 59%. Japan banks remained the top choice, while real estate took second place. China continued to see preference for AI/semis and buybacks/dividends. India interest remains focused on infrastructure and consumption.

    • BOJ rate hike forecasts pushed back to Q4, though views largely split:

      • Latest Reuters consensus poll (n=62) reaffirmed expectations for a BOJ rate hike by year-end. Median estimate for the policy rate at September-end was 0.50%, revised from 0.75% last month, while the December projection was unchanged at 0.75%. However, December consensus was largely split with only 52% looking for a rate hike. Results were generally consistent with markets pricing in nearly 19 bp by year-end. Main development was that previous expectations for a July move have largely diminished due to uncertainties posed by US tariff developments. Survey results follow a recent Nikkei piece noting the revival in rate hike expectations after the US-China trade talks in Geneva, albeit relatively cautious against levels preceding the US reciprocal tariffs implemented in early April. Market-implied odds now point to September as the earliest viable timing. Yet, there was no strong case for a September move, shortly following the 90-day expiry of US-China tariff cuts in early July as well as the upper house election expected to be held 20-Jul. October presents the next opportunity for BOJ forecast revisions in the Outlook Report after board members' conviction towards the April forecasts were hampered by lack of clarity on tariff policies and cautioned that risks to their projections were symmetric.

    • Australian labor market remains tight but markets still pricing in May rate cut:

      • May RBA rate cut expectations remain intact following hotter-than-expected April jobs data. Australian economy added 89K jobs in April against consensus 22.5K and March's 36.4K increase, representing largest monthly increase since early 2024. Unemployment held at an in-line 4.1% as participation rate rose to 67.1% from 66.8%. Follows wage figures on Wednesday that showed wage growth reaccelerated in Q1 for first time since Q2 2024. While data adds to signs of a still-tight labor market, RBA rate cut expectations have largely been informed by disinflation momentum with trimmed mean inflation in Q1 returning to 2-3% target band for first time since late 2021. Moreover, jobs figures being discounted by some economists with ANZ anticipating RBA will look through April's figures like it did with February's unusually large drop. Futures still pricing in ~90% chance of a May rate cut following jobs data. At same time, evidence of still-tight labor market and tamping down of US-China trade tensions have seen markets wind back expectations to three rate cuts in 2025 from four previously.

    • Japan automakers project $21B tariff, FX hit this year:

      • Nikkei aggregated auto sector financial results highlighting FY guidance points to a combined JPY3.10T ($21.16B) drag on net profits from tariff and FX factors. Noted three of the seven companies with the highest US exposure -- Nissan (7201.JP), Subaru (7270.JP), Mazda (7261.JP) -- withheld profit guidance due to uncertainties. Combined tariff hit alone made up JPY1.70T with Honda (7267.JP) the highest at JPY650B, followed by Nissan at up to JPY450B and Subaru at up to JPY360B. Toyota (7203.JP) estimate was partial, covering only Apr-May for JPY180B citing forecast difficulties due to the fluidity of the situation. On FX factor, five firms provided estimates totaling a negative impact of JPY1.40T, largely a function of assumed USD/JPY rates. Honda was the most aggressive at 135, while Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi (7211.JP) projected a more conservative 145. Article noted that US-China trade talks in Geneva drove yen weakness, currently in the 146 range, which would provide an FX windfall. Still, underlying profitability looks to remain solid as Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe was quoted as saying the company can generate profits of more than JPY1.4T without tariff and FX effects. Strategic adjustments also in focus as Mitsubishi (with no US production) is considering joint local production with Nissan. Some thoughts automakers can compete with existing local inventories in an environment where prices are set to rise.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.5% 011200.KS (HMM): reports Q1 earnings with operating profit ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +5.1% 071050.KS (Korea Investment Holdings Co.): reports Q1 earnings with operating profit ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +3.4% 7532.JP (Pan Pacific International Holdings): reports Q3 earnings with revenue and operating profit ahead of FactSet estimates

      • +2.2% 4612.JP (Nippon Paint Holdings): reports Q1 earnings with operating profit ahead of FactSet estimates

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -8.8% 4755.JP (Rakuten Group): reports Q1 results with non-GAAP operating income below StreetAccount estimates

      • -5.5% 4523.JP (Eisai): reports Q4 results with operating profit below FactSet estimates

      • -3.2% 8316.JP (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial): reports FY results with net income attributable below FactSet estimates

      • -0.7% 9433.JP (KDDI Corp): reports Q4 earnings; conducts tender offer for up to 196M shares at ¥2,307/share

      • -0.2% 700.HK (Tencent Holdings): reports Q1 results; shares fall despite beat

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Australia April

        • Employment +89.0K m/m vs consensus +22.5K and revised +36.4K in March

          • Unemployment rate 4.1% vs consensus 4.1% and 4.1% in March

          • Participation rate 67.1% vs consensus 66.8% and 66.8% in March

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (372.62) or (0.98%) to 37755.51

      • Hang Seng: (187.49) or (0.79%) to 23453.16

      • Shanghai Composite: (23.13) or (0.68%) to 3380.82

      • Shenzhen Composite: (27.64) or (1.37%) to 1982.95

      • ASX200: 17.90 or +0.22% to 8297.50

      • KOSPI: (19.21) or (0.73%) to 2621.36

      • SENSEX: 633.41 or +0.78% to 81963.97

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.92) or (0.63%) to 145.8280

      • $-KRW: (9.80) or (0.70%) to 1398.5100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.12%) to 0.6421

      • $-INR: +0.06 or +0.07% to 85.5511

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.2097

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