May 16 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended the week higher. Follows mixed session on Thursday. In sectors, Personal/Households, Real Estate, Health Care and Telecom the best performers whilst Basic Resources and Tech lag. Nothing incremental to change market narrative. Markets in a holding pattern after benefiting from de-escalation US-China trade tensions at the start of the week.
In monetary policies, recent statements from ECB members suggesting end of easing cycle nearing end. Governing Council member Kazaks (hawk) indicated the central bank may implement only a couple more reductions from current deposit rate of 2.25% if inflation returns to 2% target as expected, Bloomberg reports.
On the political front, UK/EU discussions in focus, with UK PM Starmer expressing confidence in reaching a deal to reset relations despite reports of differences on fishing rights, youth mobility and defense. In another effort to boost growth and investment, ministers considering cutting tax-free cash allowance for savings account to encourage more money into stocks. In Germany, Chancellor Merz's economic vision faces new tensions as Foreign Minister Wadephul publicly backed US President Trump's call for NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, dividing Germany's ruling coalition. Such commitment would translate to ~€225B - more than double previous expenditure. Merz already exempted defense spending from Germany's constitutional debt brake and launched a €500B modernization fund, noting each additional percentage point of defense spending costs ~€45B annually, Handelsblatt writes.
Light macro calendar with Italy April CPI softer +1.9% y/y vs preliminary reading +2.0%. Trade balance surplus in March smaller than expected €3.66B vs consensus €5.2B and prior revised €4.44B from €4.47B while Eurozone Trade Balance wider €36.8B vs consensus €25.0B and prior €24.0B. French unemployment rises to 7.4% from prior 7.3% in Q1.
On the corporate front, insurers in the spotlight, with Swiss Re (SREN.SW), Unipol Gruppo (UNI.IM) and Aegon (AGN.NA) posting their Q1 numbers; in the DACH region, Richemont (CFR.SW) shares reacting well to Q4/FY earnings; also, Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) announced an application with the ECB for further share buyback and reconfirmed the path to 2025 targets.
In notable M&A news, United Internet (UTDI.GR) made an offer for 16.3M 1&1 (1U1.GR) shares at €18.50/sh.
Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, notable releases on Monday will include, amongst others, Eurozone Apr final CPI, UK May house price index - Rightmove and Spain Mar trade balance. Of note Türkiye market will be closed for holiday.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Persnl & HHold Goods +1.24%, Real Estate +1.20%, Health Care +1.19%, Telecom +1.14%, Utilities +0.79%, Oil & Gas +0.70%, Retail +0.68%, Media +0.50%
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (1.18%), Technology (0.52%), Travel & Leisure (0.37%), Autos & Parts (0.22%), Chemicals (0.17%), Ind Goods & Svcs +0.05%, Construct & Mtls +0.13%, Financial Svcs +0.18%, Food & Beverage +0.26%, Insurance +0.30%, Banks +0.40%
Macro:
EU/NATO:
Romanian presidential front-runner accuses Macron of 'dictatorial tendencies' -- Politico
NATO Allies and the EU in the Baltic Sea region agree to cooperate to protect critical undersea infrastructure -- valtioneuvosto
Macron puts squeeze on Starmer in last-minute Brexit reset talks -- Telegraph
UK:
Germany:
Italy:
Italy hits 2% defence target ahead of NATO summit -- Euractiv
Portugal:
Portugal's Dueling Parties Both Want More Chinese Investments -- Bloomberg
Poland:
Presidential polls -- ewybory
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+30.4% 2HRA.GR (H&R €4.95, +1.16) -- H&R Holding GmbH to launch a voluntary public tender offer of €5/share for company
+20.3% 1U1.GR (1&1 AG €18.28, +3.12) -- United Internet makes public acquisition offer for 16.3M company shares at €18.50/sh
+19.5% STAF.LN (Staffline Group £0.32, +0.05) -- contract
+15.4% UTDI.GR (United Internet €22.98, +3.06) -- United Internet makes public acquisition offer for 16.3M company shares at €18.50/sh
+6.9% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF166.50, +10.75) -- FY earnings
+6.6% EPEN.SS (Ependion SEK110.60, +6.80) -- 2.9M-share directed share issue prices at SEK103/sh
+5.3% ODL.NO (Odfjell Drilling NOK62.20, +3.20) -- Q1 earnings
+5.3% BORG.SS (Bjorn Borg SEK59.00, +3.00) -- Q1 earnings
+3.0% SDIP.B.SS (Sdiptech SEK231.40, +6.80) -- appoint new CEO
+3.0% AUTN.SW (Autoneum Holding CHF145.00, +4.20) -- acquires Chinese automotive supplier Chengdu FAW-Sihuan Automobile Interior Parts for CHF16M
+2.6% TATE.LN (Tate & Lyle £5.98, +0.15) -- Citi upgrade
+2.6% HBC.NO (Hofseth BioCare NOK2.36, +0.06) -- Q1 earnings
+2.4% GFC.FP (Gecina €92.50, +2.20) -- to acquire office complex in Paris Central Business District
+2.2% NRC.NO (NRC Group NOK4.94, +0.11) -- Q1 earnings
+1.9% PACT.SS (Proact IT Group SEK117.80, +2.20) -- initiates share-buyback program
Notable Decliners
-15.2% TOKMAN.FH (Tokmanni Group €11.55, -2.09) -- Q1 earnings
-10.3% FUTR.LN (Future Plc £7.23, -0.77) -- H1 earnings
-7.2% OXUR.BB (Oxurion €0.06, -0.00) -- to acquire 72% of the share of French biometrics specialist Axiodis CRO for ~€0.5M
-6.4% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €3.69, -0.25) -- Q3 revenue
-6.4% WKP.LN (Workspace Group £4.15, -0.29) -- Post-close financial update
-4.4% AFK.NO (Arendals Fossekompani NOK129.00, -6.00) -- Q1 earnings
-4.3% CCT.LN (Character Group £2.40, -0.11) -- H1 earnings
-4.1% TFIN.IM (Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale €0.32, -0.01) -- Q1 update
-3.8% BTS.B.SS (BTS Group SEK234.75, -9.50) -- Q1 earnings
-3.2% NTG.DC (NTG Nordic Transport Group DKK224.00, -7.50) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-2.3% VSVS.LN (Vesuvius £3.68, -0.09) -- AGM trading update
-2.1% ACE.SS (Ascelia Pharma SEK3.75, -0.08) -- Q1 earnings
-2.1% RUI.FP (Rubis €29.90, -0.64) -- Chairman to step down
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Sunrise Communications (SUNN.SW), Stratec (SBS.GR)
France: Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP)
Ireland: Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID)
Nordics: Rockwool (ROCK.B.DC), Fynske Bank (FYNBK.DC), Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO)
Southern Europe: EuroGroup Laminations (EGLA.IM)
UK: Big Yellow Group (BYG.LN), Kainos Group (KNOS.LN), Cerillion (CER.LN), Creo Medical Group (CREO.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Jensen-Group (JEN.BB)
UK: Diageo (DGE.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Mar Trade Balance €36.8B vs consensus €25.0B and prior €24.0B
Italy
Mar Trade Balance €3.66B vs consensus €5.2B and prior revised €4.44B from €4.47B
Apr CPI +1.9% y/y vs preliminary +2.0%
France Q1 Unemployment Rate 7.4% vs consensus 7.4% and prior 7.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Jun): +$0.60 or +0.97% to $62.22
€-$ (0.0036) or (0.32%) to 1.1150
£-$ (0.0038) or (0.29%) to 1.3266
€-£ (0.0003) to 0.8405
S&P 500 +0.17%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +6.26%
DAX: +19.38%
CAC: +6.86%
MIB: +18.93%
Stoxx 600: +8.20%
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